Great Power and Regional Competition
Russia, China, Iran, Turkey, India, and Gulf states compete for influence across Central Asia using distinct strategies and tools of leverage. Our research analyzes these approaches and examines how regional states navigate between competing external pressures.
Erosion of Russian Hegemony
Russia’s dominance in Central Asia, once undeniable, has weakened considerably. Economic stagnation, military overextension, and the appeal of alternative partners have emboldened Central Asian states to pursue more independent foreign policies. This shift creates both opportunities and uncertainties as the regional order that has held for decades gives way to something new.
Rising Regional Powers
Turkey has emerged as a significant player in the South Caucasus and Central Asia, leveraging cultural ties, military exports, and economic investment. Iran seeks influence despite sanctions constraints. India and the Gulf states are also expanding their regional footprints. These actors bring distinct interests and capabilities that complicate and sometimes complement U.S. objectives in the region.
