The Global Forecast Monitor

This week, Israel and Hezbollah agreed to a U.S.-mediated cease-fire, while fighting continued in Gaza, with Hamas signaling it could agree to cooperate on ceasing hostilities. In Ukraine, Kyiv experienced the largest drone bombing since the start of the war, and the U.K. unveiled additional sanctions against Russia. In the Indo-Pacific, Taiwanese President William Lai is planning a visit to his diplomatic allies with a possible stop-over in the U.S., and Washington is making additional plans to deter China with the Philippines and Japan. In the U.S., President-elect Donald Trump threatened additional tariffs against China, Mexico, and Canada. In the closing of the U.N. COP29 climate conference, richer countries agreed to finance $300 billion per year to assist poorer countries with climate change mitigation and adaptation initiatives.

This week, Ukraine received authorization from the U.S. to use U.S.-supplied ATACM weapon systems to strike deep into Russia’s Kursk region, followed by the authorization to use British/French Storm Shadow missiles. In the Middle East, U.S. Special Envoy Amos Hochstein visited Beirut and Jerusalem to propose ceasefire conditions for Hezbollah and Israel, while Israel continued its bombardments in Gaza and Lebanon. In the Indo-Pacific, the U.S. announced new military aid and cooperation with the Philippines, and China signed several agreements with global partners during the G20 summit and Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum in Brazil and Peru.

This week, President-elect Donald Trump nominated members of his incoming government, and the Republican Party retained control of the House of Representatives. In the Middle East, Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich called for the annexation of the West Bank amid conflicting reports of a potential ceasefire in Lebanon. In Russia, Ukrainian forces conducted large-scale drone attacks against Moscow, and Russian President Vladimir Putin reportedly spoke with Trump about potential resolutions to the war. In the Indo-Pacific, China posted new delimitations around the contested Scarborough Shoal near the Philippines, and U.S. President Joe Biden is set to attend the upcoming Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation forum.