Global Security & Military Priorities

Transnational organized crime increasingly shapes governance, economics, and security across regions, yet media coverage often remains surface-level or sensationalized. Crime Beat Conversations goes beyond the headlines to examine how criminal networks function, evolve, and impact societies worldwide through short, digestible video podcast episodes. Hosted by Rafaella Lipschitz, the series brings together diverse voices to unpack the systemic factors that enable illicit economies to flourish – from corruption networks and state capture to trafficking routes and criminal governance models. Each episode reveals the broader implications of organized crime on rule of law, political stability, and human security across continents, with many topics explored in greater depth through the Crime-Conflict Nexus portfolio’s long-form analysis. Crime Beat Conversations provides policymakers, researchers, and engaged audiences with accessible and nuanced insights into one of the most pressing security challenges of our time. 

Criminal groups have been able to wield economic, social, and even political influence, becoming formidable nonstate actors that states often have to contend with. Yet in certain cases, illicit actors can be co-opted by the state or even embed themselves within the state itself, affecting governance, rule of law, and security. The Mafiacracies Project explores cases around the world where criminal syndicates have apprehended state institutions or have been co-opted by state actors. The project seeks to generate awareness about the implications of illicit actors' proximity to governance and identify pathways that policymakers can take to manage the effects of mafiacracies. Drawing from experts with extensive experience in criminology, rule of law, political economy, and anticorruption efforts, this project generates reports, articles, podcasts, and events offering a comprehensive approach toward mafiacracies around the world.

A staggering proliferation of methamphetamines, particularly crystal meth, has emerged across the Middle East. The Assad regime's fall in Syria and the seizure of major, industrial scale labs has likely created a regional shortage of captagon, meaning the supply and demand for methamphetamines will likely increase. This shapes an emerging crisis for regional public health, security, and governance that should be addressed with urgency by local and international stakeholders. The Middle East Methamphetamines Project seeks to generate actionable intelligence and analysis about all aspects of the regional methamphetamine trade. Through open source intelligence methods, the project maintains a comprehensive database monitoring all methamphetamine related arrests, seizures, laboratory raids, and other developments. The project also maintains a live interactive map that journalists, researchers, and policymakers can use to monitor the trade's evolution over time, which can be found below.

A spike in the production, trade, and consumption of the amphetamine-type stimulant captagon has introduced a new challenge to public health, stability, and human security in the Mediterranean-Gulf zone. The drug's evolving formula, combined with participation from malign actors aligned with the former Assad regime in Syria, Hezbollah, Iran-sponsored proxies, and criminal syndicates, exacerbates insecurity and raises the risk of conflict in the region. Syria's decade-long civil war enabled armed actors, including violent and organized crime groups, to profiteer from illicit markets. In the wake of a supply shortage created by the fall of the Assad regime, the spillover of captagon production and trafficking into new transit hubs creates a complicated road ahead for governments.

The Captagon Trade Project is one of the leading research efforts generating new, cutting-edge qualitative and quantitative analyses about all aspects of the captagon trade. The project uses open-source intelligence to maintain a comprehensive database recording all reported captagon-related arrests, seizures, laboratory raids, and other developments. Through intelligence reports, articles, podcasts, hosted Track II dialogues, and public events, the project serves to encourage innovative, effective policy solutions to address the captagon trade's security, geopolitical, and health implications.

As the U.S. seeks to draw down its presence in the Middle East, particularly amid regional escalation, there is a greater likelihood for the withdrawal of U.S. troops and termination of the Counter ISIS Operation Inherent Resolve Mission in Iraq and Syria. While the U.S. has laid out an incremental reconsolidation and drawdown process for its near 2,500 forces stationed in Iraq, it has no clear plan for its 2,000 forces stationed in Northeast Syria. The Iraq Syria Withdrawal Project seeks to answer pressing questions through thought leadership and expertise, generating analyses about the spectrum of risks and opportunities that exist within a drawdown process under Operation Inherent Resolve. Drawing from experts with extensive experience navigating Iraq and Syria's complex security landscapes, this project generates reports, articles, podcasts, and events illuminating pathways that American policymakers and military leaders can seize upon to ensure a responsible way forward.

There are many lessons to be learned from the U.S. withdrawal of military forces that concluded 20 years of American presence in Afghanistan. The swift evacuation process contributed to the deaths of 13 American servicemembers and hundreds of Afghan civilians, and the withdrawal unintentionally played a role in shaping a power vacuum that Taliban insurgents and terrorist actors such as the Islamic State Khorasan (ISIS-K) exploited to sow seeds of insecurity. While Washington's attention has largely shifted away from Afghanistan, it remains vital to draw lessons from both the execution and long standing implications of the withdrawal. The Post Withdrawal Afghanistan Project seeks to foster thought leadership and expertise, generating analyses about the tactical, operational, and strategic elements that played a role in the U.S. withdrawal process, as well as the existing reality in a Taliban controlled Afghanistan.

In 2023 and 2024, French, German, and U.S. forces conducted departures from positions in the Sahel region, leaving countries like Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger to inherit existing counterterrorism operations. The departures followed a series of coups d'état and military juntas, a steady rise in anti Western sentiment, and an uptick in Russian influence among regional actors. The Post Withdrawal Sahel Project seeks to foster thought leadership and expertise, generating analyses about the tactical, operational, and strategic elements that played a role in the withdrawal of French, German, and American forces, as well as the existing reality in the Sahel's security landscape. Drawing from experts with extensive experience in Sahel defense and security, this project generates reports, articles, podcasts, and events about lessons learned and future policy approaches.

In April 2022, the Taliban imposed a blanket ban on all poppy and ephedra cultivation inside Afghanistan to crack down on drug production and blunt the country's reputation as the world's top heroin producer and emerging hub for methamphetamine manufacturing. The ban has been largely effective. Afghanistan, once the source of 90% of the world's heroin supply, has experienced a near total reduction in poppy cultivation. As the Taliban seeks diplomatic recognition, it has touted this effort as a key initiative to gain credibility with international actors. The Taliban Poppy Ban Project seeks to generate actionable intelligence and analysis about how the ban on poppy and ephedra has impacted local and international drug markets, security, and public health. Through its programming and written publications, the project generates research and analysis on the ban's geopolitical, law enforcement, and security implications while identifying creative, effective policy solutions.