Military Withdrawals

As the U.S. seeks to draw down its presence in the Middle East, particularly amid regional escalation, there is a greater likelihood for the withdrawal of U.S. troops and termination of the Counter ISIS Operation Inherent Resolve Mission in Iraq and Syria. While the U.S. has laid out an incremental reconsolidation and drawdown process for its near 2,500 forces stationed in Iraq, it has no clear plan for its 2,000 forces stationed in Northeast Syria. The Iraq Syria Withdrawal Project seeks to answer pressing questions through thought leadership and expertise, generating analyses about the spectrum of risks and opportunities that exist within a drawdown process under Operation Inherent Resolve. Drawing from experts with extensive experience navigating Iraq and Syria's complex security landscapes, this project generates reports, articles, podcasts, and events illuminating pathways that American policymakers and military leaders can seize upon to ensure a responsible way forward.

There are many lessons to be learned from the U.S. withdrawal of military forces that concluded 20 years of American presence in Afghanistan. The swift evacuation process contributed to the deaths of 13 American servicemembers and hundreds of Afghan civilians, and the withdrawal unintentionally played a role in shaping a power vacuum that Taliban insurgents and terrorist actors such as the Islamic State Khorasan (ISIS-K) exploited to sow seeds of insecurity. While Washington's attention has largely shifted away from Afghanistan, it remains vital to draw lessons from both the execution and long standing implications of the withdrawal. The Post Withdrawal Afghanistan Project seeks to foster thought leadership and expertise, generating analyses about the tactical, operational, and strategic elements that played a role in the U.S. withdrawal process, as well as the existing reality in a Taliban controlled Afghanistan.

In 2023 and 2024, French, German, and U.S. forces conducted departures from positions in the Sahel region, leaving countries like Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger to inherit existing counterterrorism operations. The departures followed a series of coups d'état and military juntas, a steady rise in anti Western sentiment, and an uptick in Russian influence among regional actors. The Post Withdrawal Sahel Project seeks to foster thought leadership and expertise, generating analyses about the tactical, operational, and strategic elements that played a role in the withdrawal of French, German, and American forces, as well as the existing reality in the Sahel's security landscape. Drawing from experts with extensive experience in Sahel defense and security, this project generates reports, articles, podcasts, and events about lessons learned and future policy approaches.