Crime-Conflict Nexus

Transnational organized crime increasingly shapes governance, economics, and security across regions, yet media coverage often remains surface-level or sensationalized. Crime Beat Conversations goes beyond the headlines to examine how criminal networks function, evolve, and impact societies worldwide through short, digestible video podcast episodes. Hosted by Rafaella Lipschitz, the series brings together diverse voices to unpack the systemic factors that enable illicit economies to flourish – from corruption networks and state capture to trafficking routes and criminal governance models. Each episode reveals the broader implications of organized crime on rule of law, political stability, and human security across continents, with many topics explored in greater depth through the Crime-Conflict Nexus portfolio’s long-form analysis. Crime Beat Conversations provides policymakers, researchers, and engaged audiences with accessible and nuanced insights into one of the most pressing security challenges of our time. 

Criminal groups have been able to wield economic, social, and even political influence, becoming formidable nonstate actors that states often have to contend with. Yet in certain cases, illicit actors can be co-opted by the state or even embed themselves within the state itself, affecting governance, rule of law, and security. The Mafiacracies Project explores cases around the world where criminal syndicates have apprehended state institutions or have been co-opted by state actors. The project seeks to generate awareness about the implications of illicit actors' proximity to governance and identify pathways that policymakers can take to manage the effects of mafiacracies. Drawing from experts with extensive experience in criminology, rule of law, political economy, and anticorruption efforts, this project generates reports, articles, podcasts, and events offering a comprehensive approach toward mafiacracies around the world.

A staggering proliferation of methamphetamines, particularly crystal meth, has emerged across the Middle East. The Assad regime's fall in Syria and the seizure of major, industrial scale labs has likely created a regional shortage of captagon, meaning the supply and demand for methamphetamines will likely increase. This shapes an emerging crisis for regional public health, security, and governance that should be addressed with urgency by local and international stakeholders. The Middle East Methamphetamines Project seeks to generate actionable intelligence and analysis about all aspects of the regional methamphetamine trade. Through open source intelligence methods, the project maintains a comprehensive database monitoring all methamphetamine related arrests, seizures, laboratory raids, and other developments. The project also maintains a live interactive map that journalists, researchers, and policymakers can use to monitor the trade's evolution over time, which can be found below.

A spike in the production, trade, and consumption of the amphetamine-type stimulant captagon has introduced a new challenge to public health, stability, and human security in the Mediterranean-Gulf zone. The drug's evolving formula, combined with participation from malign actors aligned with the former Assad regime in Syria, Hezbollah, Iran-sponsored proxies, and criminal syndicates, exacerbates insecurity and raises the risk of conflict in the region. Syria's decade-long civil war enabled armed actors, including violent and organized crime groups, to profiteer from illicit markets. In the wake of a supply shortage created by the fall of the Assad regime, the spillover of captagon production and trafficking into new transit hubs creates a complicated road ahead for governments.

The Captagon Trade Project is one of the leading research efforts generating new, cutting-edge qualitative and quantitative analyses about all aspects of the captagon trade. The project uses open-source intelligence to maintain a comprehensive database recording all reported captagon-related arrests, seizures, laboratory raids, and other developments. Through intelligence reports, articles, podcasts, hosted Track II dialogues, and public events, the project serves to encourage innovative, effective policy solutions to address the captagon trade's security, geopolitical, and health implications.

In April 2022, the Taliban imposed a blanket ban on all poppy and ephedra cultivation inside Afghanistan to crack down on drug production and blunt the country's reputation as the world's top heroin producer and emerging hub for methamphetamine manufacturing. The ban has been largely effective. Afghanistan, once the source of 90% of the world's heroin supply, has experienced a near total reduction in poppy cultivation. As the Taliban seeks diplomatic recognition, it has touted this effort as a key initiative to gain credibility with international actors. The Taliban Poppy Ban Project seeks to generate actionable intelligence and analysis about how the ban on poppy and ephedra has impacted local and international drug markets, security, and public health. Through its programming and written publications, the project generates research and analysis on the ban's geopolitical, law enforcement, and security implications while identifying creative, effective policy solutions.