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In an era defined by rapid technological advancement, the United States faces an unprecedented strategic challenge: maintaining its technological edge in the face of China’s accelerating capabilities. This is not merely a competition for economic prosperity but a contest that will fundamentally alter global security, governance structures, and the values embedded in technologies that will shape tomorrow’s world. As China pursues increasing technological self-sufficiency and primacy through its dual-circulation strategy and military-civil fusion, the United States must respond with policies that both protect its innovations and accelerate its development.
The technological rivalry between the United States and China transcends traditional geopolitical competition. It represents a systemic challenge that cuts across economic, security, and diplomacy domains. From artificial intelligence to quantum computing, from cybersecurity to critical resource supply chains, this competition demands a comprehensive, strategic response that harnesses America’s innovative capacity while protecting its critical technologies from exploitation.
This compendium, “Future-Proofing U.S. Technology: Strategic Priorities Amid Chinese Tech Advancement,” brings together diverse expertise to address this multifaceted challenge. The reports presented here examine critical technological domains where targeted policy action is needed to maintain U.S. strategic advantage. Each analysis offers concrete, actionable recommendations designed to enhance American competitiveness while countering China’s advancing capabilities. Collectively, these analyses form a strategic roadmap for policymakers, industry leaders, and defense planners seeking to navigate the complex terrain of technological competition with China. They represent not just a warning about potential vulnerabilities but also a positive vision for how the United States can leverage its strengths to maintain technological leadership in the decades ahead.
“Implications of Alternative Payment Methods in a China-Taiwan Confrontation” examines how the People’s Republic of China could use alternative payment systems to mitigate economic sanctions and reduce reliance on the U.S. dollar in a potential conflict over Taiwan. China’s efforts to de-dollarize, particularly through partnerships with BRICS nations, signal a broader strategy with both economic and military implications. Currently, the United States lacks an action plan to counter these rising risks. This report highlights the need for proactive measures such as exploring stablecoins and leveraging sanctions as deterrents to reinforce U.S. economic influence and dollar hegemony.
In a world where artificial intelligence is increasingly shaped by geopolitics and power struggles, “Culture as a Tool for Trustworthy AI” explores how these forces influence the foundation of trust in AI systems. Currently, China offers not only the digital infrastructure needed for AI technologies but also an increasingly sophisticated variety of tools upon which future applications and large language models might be built, jeopardizing U.S. leadership in the sector. The piece delves into the intersection of culture, governance, and technology, offering strategic recommendations on how the U.S can coordinate and institutionalize trustworthy AI.
Against evolving threat actors in China and Russia, regulations and the cybersecurity industry remain out of sync, increasing the likelihood of continued harmful breaches of American government agencies and private companies. The industry needs a shake up, and “Overcoming the Challenges of Incentivizing Cybersecurity” suggests a new approach to cybersecurity regulation that will address industry needs and foster an economic climate in which innovation is not stifled. The “build up from the floor” approach aims to assist policymakers and regulators in starting a foundational set of regulations, then adding layers as impact is monitored. Its policy recommendations are designed to ensure both the public and private sectors can effectively tackle evolving challenges from U.S competitors and adversaries.
While the Department of Defense has prioritized resilient supply chains for critical minerals, limited U.S. mining and refining capacity has led to dependence on imports from competitors like China. To address this challenge, “Materiel for Minerals: How the U.S. Can Leverage Security Assistance to Secure Supply Chains” introduces the materiel-for-minerals strategy, enabling the DoD to secure mineral production agreements in non-allied countries. This approach leverages tools like right-of-first-refusal offtake agreements in exchange for U.S. defense materiel that many countries desire.
Technologically sophisticated foreign actors such as Russia and China use influence campaigns as a disruptive tool to amplify discontent, shape election results, and blur the lines between fact and fiction. The rise of emerging technologies further exacerbates concerns over misinformation and disinformation, making detection even more challenging. “The Double-Edged Sword: How to Win the War on Fake News” examines the dual role of technology in both spreading and countering fake news and offers policy recommendations to strengthen the United States’ ability to combat disinformation. While objectives in spreading fake news aren’t always clear, countering efforts to manipulate American perceptions of domestic and foreign affairs remains essential.
While both the United States and China use emerging technologies to enhance their domestic security and expand foreign influence, China has been able to gain an advantage by exploiting U.S markets and innovations through espionage, cyber intrusions, and protectionist policies. Rather than countering, the U.S. and Europe have adopted broad tariffs and industrial policies, fueling global isolationism and protectionism, which stifles innovation globally. “Targeted and Precise: Innovation Versus Regulation in the Critical Technology Sector” ensure U.S. industrial controls are sufficiently targeted.
Discussions on emerging technologies often center on how competitors like China threaten to surpass the United States. However, flaws in determining who is ahead confuse interpretations of power and competition, which may pose indirect harm to understanding how the U.S can prioritize AI leadership in the long run. “How the U.S. Can Achieve Sustainable AI Leadership” explores aspects of AI development the United States should prioritize, such as aligning innovation with democratic values and making substantial investments in sustainable resources.
The artificial intelligence field is dominated by an obsession over machine learning, which is an important – but fundamentally limited – method to achieve AI leadership. The United States should expand its focus to the next innovative research area, neuro-symbolic AI. “American AI Leadership Should Not Be Defined by Machine Learning” aims to guarantee American AI research is not stuck with machine learning and the narrow pursuit of artificial general intelligence, but able to adapt to new frontiers that could solidify an enduring global leadership position in AI. This report integrates recommendations like utilizing existing programs such as The National Artificial Intelligence Initiative Office and creating new research institutes to realize this outcome.
These analyses reveal both the complexity of U.S.-China technological competition and the need for a coordinated, forward-looking response. While each report addresses distinct technological domains, several common themes emerge that should guide U.S. policy.
First, the United States must balance security imperatives with the openness that has driven American innovation for decades. Overly broad restrictions can stifle the very technological advancement they aim to protect. Instead, targeted and precise approaches to regulation, export controls, and investment screening are needed to address specific vulnerabilities without undermining the broader innovation ecosystem.
Second, securing America’s technological future requires looking beyond current paradigms. Whether in artificial intelligence, cybersecurity, or countering disinformation, tomorrow’s challenges will not be met with today’s technological approaches alone. U.S. policy must support frontier research in emerging fields like neuro-symbolic AI while building resilience into critical technological infrastructure.
Third, the United States cannot win this competition alone. Partnerships with allies and like-minded nations are essential to developing shared technological standards, securing supply chains, and establishing norms within the technological world that align with democratic values. International collaboration will amplify America’s technological strengths while distributing the burden of countering China’s advancing capabilities.
Maintaining technological leadership is not just about producing more advanced technologies faster than competitors. It requires aligning technological development with values like transparency, privacy, and fairness that reflect America’s principles. Technologies that embody these values will ultimately prove more resilient and widely adopted than alternatives developed under authoritarian systems.
The Tech Sovereignty & Security Portfolio at the New Lines Institute for Strategy and Policy will continue to bridge the gap between technical expertise and policy as we collectively confront these challenges. Our ongoing research will delve deeper into the issues presented in this compendium and explore additional domains critical to U.S. technological leadership, including biotechnology, quantum computing, and space security. By providing timely, targeted analysis grounded in deep technical understanding, we aim to support policymakers in making informed decisions that secure America’s technological future and advance its values on the global stage. The technological race with China is not simply about who develops scientific capabilities first and who can produce the largest quantity but rather about shaping the technological landscape in ways that strengthen democracy, enhance security, and foster prosperity. With strategic foresight and coordinated action, the United States can maintain its technological leadership while ensuring that emerging technologies serve humanity’s best interests.
The views expressed in this article are those of the author and not an official policy or position of the New Lines Institute.
