Skip to content

An Independent Legal Analysis of the Russian Federation’s Breaches of the Genocide Convention in Ukraine and the Duty to Prevent

MicrosoftTeams-image (64)|Untitled-design-5|Forbes-1|Le-monde-1|ny-times-1|axios-1|Wapo-1

This report is the first to address one of the more contentious and consequential questions of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine: whether the war is genocidal in character. With fighting still ongoing, modern tools have made it vital that this question be examined and its truth made known.

With the word genocide so commonly used — and similarly disputed — allowing for a looseness of definition is unhelpful. A clear reckoning of the facts using the opportunities of modern methods of investigation together with legal analysis pursuant to applicable law is essential.

This is a project of the New Lines Institute and the Raoul Wallenberg Centre for Human Rights, which assembled three teams of experts to assess the subject. This included a team of legal scholars and genocide experts, a second group of open-source intelligence investigators, and linguists who were able to make use of the extensive primary source record this war has already created — of communications intercepts and testimonials.

The New Lines Institute and Raoul Wallenberg Centre have done extensive work on the Rohingya and Uyghur genocides — including producing the first report to make a determination of genocide in Xinjiang applying the 1948 Genocide Convention.

This report reasonably concludes that Russia bears State responsibility for breaches of Article II and Article III (c) of the Genocide Convention to which it is bound. The report also concludes that there exists undoubtedly a very serious risk of genocide, triggering States’ duty to prevent under Article I of the Genocide Convention.

This is the first report of its kind, but not the final word on the subject. We hope more will follow.

Dr Azeem Ibrahim

Director, Special Initiatives

Full Report Translations:

Foreword and Executive Summary Translations:

Russian Destruction of Ukraine

ESA Sentinel-2 True-color imagery with shortwave infrared highlights of Irpin on 23 March 2022.
Irpin/Bucha for several weeks, from 26 February to 7 April, as seen by ESA’s Sentinel-2 with shortwave infrared highlights.
NASA satellite view of fires/thermal anomalies in the greater Kyiv area, showing a massive outbreak of fires west of Kyiv following the invasion of Ukraine.

The Report in the Media

Related Articles

Hezbollah’s Ascendance: Regional Influence, Global Networks, and Implications for Middle East Stability 

Hezbollah’s Ascendance: Regional Influence, Global Networks, and Implications for Middle East Stability 

Hezbollah, recognized as one of the world’s most formidable nonstate armed groups, has evolved significantly since its inception during the Lebanese civil war from a small militant faction into a powerful insurgency with a global reach. In this Policy Report, Dr. Massaab Al-Aloosy analyzes the group’s evolution, how it’s funded, and how it transfers its expertise abroad to threaten the stability of the region and beyond.

Pakistan’s Intelligence Crisis

Pakistan’s Intelligence Crisis

In this episode of Eurasian Connectivity, Dr. Kamran Bokhari and Ejaz Haider, a prominent Pakistani broadcast journalist and analyst, discuss the recent arrest of Pakistan's former ISI head, the country's challenging civil-military relations, and the external pressures Pakistan faces.

The Shifting Geopolitics of the South Caucasus

The Shifting Geopolitics of the South Caucasus

In this episode of the Contours podcast, host Eugene Chausovsky talks with Richard Giragosian, founding director of the Regional Studies Center. Together, they discuss the implications of a potential peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan, the changing roles of foreign powers in the region, and what the future holds for connectivity throughout Eurasia.

Taiwan’s Semiconductor Sustainability and Global Implications 

Taiwan’s Semiconductor Sustainability and Global Implications 

The island’s almost complete reliance on imported energy makes the power-hungry sector vulnerable to disruption. To reduce the risk to Taiwan’s economy, and the worldwide tech supply chain, government policy and industry practices must evolve.