Weekly Forecast Monitor: Dec. 20, 2024

Summary 

The Russia/Ukraine war trended toward military and hybrid escalation scenarios as North Korean soldiers participated with Russian forces in a large-scale counteroffensive against the Ukrainian army in Kursk, and Russia continued its advance in Ukraine’s Donetsk oblast. Ukraine assassinated a senior Russian general in Moscow, and the European Union targeted Russia’s illicit oil market with fresh sanctions against dozens of vessels. Russian President Vladimir Putin said he is willing to negotiate with U.S. President-elect Donald Trump over Ukraine, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy paid a diplomatic visit to Brussels.

Forecast indicators 

Military escalation scenario 

• North Korean soldiers are participating in an “intensive” counteroffensive in Kursk alongside Russian army forces. At least 100 North Korean soldiers have been killed or wounded by Ukrainian forces, according to South Korean lawmaker Lee Seong-kweun.
• The Russian Defense Ministry reported the capture of two villages near Pokrovsk in Ukraine’s Donetsk region.
• Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Støre announced his country will provide $242.4 million to strengthen Ukrainian naval defenses in the Black Sea.
• Russia conducted further ballistic missile strikes against cities across Ukraine. Debris from intercepted missiles fired at Kyiv killed at least one person and wounded several others.

Hybrid escalation scenario 

• Ukraine claimed responsibility for the assassination of Russian Lt. Gen. Igor Kirillov in Moscow. Russian security forces arrested an unnamed 29-year-old Uzbek man, charging him with planting the bomb that killed Kirillov on orders from Ukrainian intelligence operatives.
• The Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) struck oil infrastructure in Russia’s Rostov region with a combined drone and missile attack. The SBU also claimed to have destroyed a large Russian weapons depot in occupied Donetsk with a drone strike.
• The EU enacted sanctions against an additional 52 Russian vessels believed to be participating in sanctions evasion operations as part of Russia’s “shadow fleet.”
• Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić stated that the U.S. will sanction Serbian oil company Naftna Industrija Srbije in January 2025 because of its partial ownership by Russian state-owned energy company Gazprom. U.S. government officials have not commented on Vučić’s claims.

Diplomatic de-escalation scenario 

• Putin said he is ready and willing to negotiate with Trump regarding ending the Ukraine conflict at “any time.”
• Zelenskyy met with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and European Council President Antonio Costa in Brussels. They discussed peace efforts, including the details of a potential international peacekeeping force in Ukraine with European leaders.
• The incoming Trump administration’s special envoy to Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, is expected to visit Kyiv, Rome, and Paris in January. Kellogg is not expected to visit Moscow during that trip.

Summary

Conflict in the Middle East trended toward diplomatic de-escalation and military escalation scenarios as the United States and other nations established diplomatic contact with Syria’s Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), and Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz expressed hope that a cease-fire and hostage release deal in Gaza would be reached soon. Israel and Saudi Arabia denied reports that they reached a breakthrough in talks over normalization of their relations. Israeli airstrikes hit Houthi positions in Yemen as the Israel Defense Forces continued to press campaigns in Gaza and Syria.

Forecast indicators 

Military escalation scenario 

• Israel conducted dozens of airstrikes against weapons depots in Syria, and Syrian media outlets reported IDF troops were operating outside of Israel’s declared “buffer zone” in the country.
• Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz stated that the IDF intends to maintain “full freedom of action” in Gaza even if a cease-fire is reached.
• Israeli airstrikes killed dozens of Palestinians in Gaza as Israel expanded its ground campaign in Rafah.
• Israeli airstrikes killed at least nine people in Yemen. The attacks came after an al-Houthi missile attack against Israel.
• Pentagon Press Secretary Maj. Gen. Patrick Ryder confirmed that 2,000 U.S. troops are deployed in Syria. The Pentagon previously acknowledged a force strength of 900.

Hybrid escalation scenario 

• Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu announced plans to double the Israeli population in the Golan Heights.
• Unnamed Western government officials have estimated that the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) controls half of Iranian oil exports. China is the largest customer of the IRGC’s illicit oil trade.

Diplomatic de-escalation scenario 

• The U.S. sent a senior diplomatic delegation headed by Assistant Secretary of State for Near Eastern Affairs Barbara Leaf to Damascus to conduct talks directly with HTS.
• Saudi Arabia and Israel have both denied a Haaretz report of a breakthrough in their discussions over normalizing relations. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken confirmed that no deal will be reached under the current presidential administration and expressed hope that the two sides will reach an accord after the next administration takes power.
• British diplomats met directly with HTS leader Ahmad al-Sharaa as German and French diplomats met with HTS representatives in Damascus to discuss a political transition, minority rights, security, and economic issues facing Syria, including the possibility of sanctions removal.
• The EU has also engaged directly with HTS in Damascus under the direction of High Representative of the Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Kaja Kallas. Kallas has stated support for lifting sanctions on Syria if HTS demonstrates a commitment to protecting the rights of women and minorities.
• Qatar appointed Khalifa Abdullah Al Mahmoud Al-Sharif as its charge d’affaires to its diplomatic mission in Syria and reopened its embassy in Damascus for the first time since 2011.
• CIA Director Bill Burns met with Qatari officials in Doha to advance cease-fire and hostage release talks between Israel and Hamas, as U.S., Qatari and Egyptian mediators continue peace negotiations. Katz expressed optimism that a deal will be reached soon.
• The United Nations High Council for Refugees estimated that 1 million Syrian refugees will return to the country in the first half of 2025.

Summary

Tensions in the Indo-Pacific trended toward hybrid and military escalation this week, as members of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue (the Quad) planned their first joint military drills next year. The Philippines and Japan signed a deal allowing reciprocal military training in each other’s territory. The U.S. Supreme Court announced it will hear arguments in January over the constitutionality of banning TikTok, which faces a new investigation from the European Union. South Korea is looking to reassure its allies following the political turmoil caused by its president’s short-lived martial law declaration.

Forecast indicators 

Military escalation scenario 

• Members of the Quad are planning their first joint coast guard training, set to take place starting Jan. 8 from Tokyo’s Yokohama port.
• The Philippines ratified a reciprocal access agreement with Japan, allowing the each country’s military to deploy in each other’s territory.
• Taiwan received 38 M1A2T Abrams tanks and four M88A2 armored recovery vehicles from the U.S., which are expected to be integrated in Taiwan’s 6th Army Corps. This is the first batch of a total of 108 Abrams tanks to be delivered to Taiwan under an agreement signed by President Donald Trump in 2019.
• The Chinese coast guard claims it “drove away” a Philippine C-208 flying over the Scarborough Shoal in the South China Sea, adding that it would continue to defend waters “under China’s jurisdiction.”
• The Pentagon released a report detailing China’s expansion of its nuclear arsenal to an estimated 600 nuclear warheads as well as its increased cooperation with Russia. The report also noted that corruption in the Chinese Central Military Commission may restrict military growth rates.
• The U.S. Senate passed the annual defense authorization bill, which passed in the House of Representatives last week. It contains high allocations for costs and initiatives aimed at countering Chinese military growth.
• Bangladesh is considering upgrading its air force with Chinese J-10C fighter jets, a purchase that could strain Chinese/Indian relations, given New Delhi’s sensitivity over its neighbors’ acquisition of military equipment from Beijing.
• The People’s Liberation Army’s electronic warfare unit released a list of targets it would strike in the event of confrontation with a U.S. aircraft carrier strike group, specifying which radars, sensors, and communications equipment would be first on its target list.
• Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense tracked 73 Chinese aircraft and 47 naval vessels around the island this week, with 31 aircraft crossing the Taiwan Strait median line.

Hybrid escalation scenario 

• China launched its first batch of satellites that will make up the GuoWang mega constellation that would provide broadband internet in competition with SpaceX’s Starlink service.
• The U.S. Supreme Court has agreed to hold a Jan. 10 hearing over the constitutionality of a law that could lead to a ban on the TikTok app in the U.S. if its Chinese parent company fails to sell it. The hearing will be held before the inauguration of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, who has praised the social media app for helping him connect with young voters.
• The European Commission launched an investigation into TikTok’s alleged role in violating procedures in the recent Romanian election.
• Washington condemned China’s ban on critical raw minerals exports to the United States, pledging to take “necessary steps” to prevent further coercive actions by Beijing. A report by defense intelligence company Govini found that the ban could disrupt the production of more than 1,000 weapons systems, with 20,000 individual parts used by the U.S. military being affected.
• A report by the U.S. Senate’s Permanent Subcommittee on Investigations found that efforts by the Department of Commerce to limit China’s and Russia’s access to advanced U.S. computer chips have been “inadequate” and require more funding.
• The U.S. Congress is set to vote on legislation restricting U.S. investments into AI and other technological ventures in China.
• South Korean lawmakers voted to impeach President Yoon Suk-yeol. The South Korean Constitutional Court will review the proceedings to determine whether Yoon should be removed from office.
• Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese pledged $118 million over four years to fund and train a new Royal Solomon Islands Police Force in an effort to reduce its dependence on Chinese policing aid.
• A group of Republican U.S. senators demanded that President Joe Biden’s administration revoke a science and technology agreement with China a week after both countries renewed it for the next five years.

Diplomatic de-escalation scenario 

• Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi hosted Sri Lankan President Anura Kumara Dissanayake for talks focused on boosting investment between both countries and countering Chinese influence over the region.
• British finance minister Rachel Reeves is set to visit Beijing in January to revive high-level bilateral talks on economic and financial cooperation.
• A U.S. Navy warship, the USS Savannah, docked at the Cambodian port of Sihanoukville, an event the Cambodian government hailed as an improvement in their bilateral relationship.
• South Korean Foreign Minister Cho Tae-yul said he hoped to reassure allies, including the incoming Trump administration, following the political turmoil caused by Yoon’s failed martial law imposition.
• A Chinese foreign ministry representative stated that China is ready to work with India to improve relations.

United States

• U.S. President Joe Biden will take action in the coming weeks before the end of his term to cement key legislative actions before the inauguration of the Trump administration, including on artificial intelligence regulation, funding disbursements under the Inflation Reduction Act, land protections, and new pardons.
• The federal government’s lack of a definitive explanation for multiple reports of unknown aerial vehicle sightings along the U.S. East Coast has caused widespread anger and concern. The Federal Aviation Administration has placed drone flight restrictions over key areas in New Jersey.
• Significance: The Biden administration is trying to make it as difficult as possible for the incoming Trump administration to reverse policies he has enacted. Trump’s transition team has repeatedly asserted the incoming president will review and repeal many of the current White House’s decisions as soon as he takes power.

Venezuela

• The European Parliament awarded the Sakharov Prize for Freedom of Thought to presumptive President-elect Edmundo González and opposition leader María Corina Machado.
• The Canadian government has imposed sanctions on five current and former senior officials from the administration of President Nicolás Maduro.
• Venezuelan Attorney General Tarek William Saab said 533 of the 2,000 people detained after post-election protests have been freed.
• Significance: The European Parliament’s recognition of González and Machado would help legitimize González’s return to Venezuela to assume the presidency and  the Canadian government’s sanctions allude to growing dissatisfaction within the international community toward the undermining of democratic norms.

South Africa

• Julius Malema was reelected as leader of the opposition Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) party. He expressed his party’s willingness to join the government of national unity (GNU) if the Democratic Alliance (DA) left the coalition.
• Significance: While Malema’s reelection was expected, his openness to working with the African National Congress, a major target of EFF criticism, in the GNU points to the EFF’s weakening.
• Velenkosini Hlabisa, cooperative governance and traditional affairs minister, said South African municipalities owe state-owned electricity provider Eskom 4 billion rand ($595 million). Gauteng municipalities owe the most, about 29 billion rand. Eskom’s CEO said that despite government efforts to encourage payment, only 11 of 71 municipalities were current on their accounts.
• Significance: Increased pressure on Eskom’s finances increases the likelihood of a rate increase as well as punitive Treasury measures that could threaten the reliability of the country’s electricity supply, both pointing to significant economic destabilization.