Weekly Forecast Monitor: Nov. 22, 2024

Summary 

The Russia/Ukraine conflict trended toward diplomatic de-escalation and military escalation scenarios as Ukrainian armed forces conducted long-range missile strikes inside Russia for the first time with weapons provided by the U.S., the U.K., and France after U.S. President Joe Biden reversed course on previous policy. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated his intention to end the war in 2025 through diplomatic means, and the Kremlin expressed willingness to negotiate an end to the war with Donald Trump after he assumes the U.S. presidency.

Forecast indicators 

Military escalation scenario 

• Ukrainian forces have used U.S.-provided ATACMS and missiles inside Russian territory for the first time, as Biden lifted previous targeting restrictions. The Kremlin called the attacks an “escalation.”
• Russia attacked the Ukrainian city of Dnipro with the first use of an intermediate range ballistic missile in the war.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin has adjusted his country’s nuclear weapons doctrine, significantly lowering the threshold for foreign actions that would warrant a Russian nuclear response. The move is seen as a warning to the U.S. after it lifted restrictions on Ukrainian long-range strikes into Russia.
• The lower house of the Russian Federal Assembly approved a three-year defense budget of $133.63 billion. This historically high number represents over 6% of Russia’s GDP.
• The United States has provided Ukraine with anti-personnel mines for the first time. The weapons are intended to help secure Ukrainian defensive lines.
• Russia bombed a humanitarian aid distribution center in Kherson, where Russian drones appeared to specifically target a vehicle belonging to aid workers.

Hybrid escalation scenario 

• Russia has supplied North Korea with at least 1 million barrels of oil so far in 2024, according to open source analysis of satellite imagery.
• The United States enacted sanctions against dozens of Russian financial institutions, including Gazprombank – a key entity in Russian energy exports.
• Dozens of Ukrainians were killed in one of Russia’s largest combined drone/missile bombardments in months. The attacks primarily targeted energy infrastructure, but most casualties stemmed from strikes on apartment buildings in Odesa, Mykolaiv and Sumy.
• North Korean state media reported that Russian Minister of Natural Resources and Ecology Alexander Kozlov met with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un in Pyongyang to discuss economic and technological cooperation. No details of the meeting were disclosed, although will bolster North Korea’s nuclear capabilities in return for support for its war effort.

Diplomatic de-escalation scenario

• Zelenskyy declared his intention to negotiate an end of war with Russia in 2025 through diplomatic means.
• The Kremlin disputed reports indicating Putin is willing to “freeze” the war in Ukraine along its current front lines. According to current and formal Russian officials who spoke on the condition of anonymity, Putin is expected to be willing to negotiate a peace settlement with Trump but will not concede land in the areas of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, or Kherson or accept a path for Ukrainian membership in NATO.
• Russia has rejected Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s proposed peace plan for Ukraine, which includes the possibility of Ukraine joining NATO after 10 years, establishing a demilitarized zone secured by an international peacekeeping force, and supplying arms to Ukraine.
• Ukraine is preparing to potentially reopen its international airport in Lviv early in 2025, provided sufficient air defenses are in place, according to Ukrainian Minister of Community and Territories Development Oleksii Kuleba.

Summary

Conflicts in the Middle East trended toward diplomatic de-escalation and military escalation scenarios as U.S. Special Envoy Amos Hochstein visited Beirut and Jerusalem to present a U.S.-drafted peace proposal for Israel and Hezbollah. Israel continued offensive operations in northern Gaza and southern Lebanon.

Forecast indicators 

Military escalation scenario 

• Israel continued to expand ground operations in Lebanon with troops nearing the Dahiyeh district in southern Beirut. Hezbollah confirmed the death of media spokesman Mohammad Afif in an Israeli airstrike, while two Hezbollah commanders have also been killed.
• Israeli forces continued an intensive bombing campaign in Gaza, leaving dozens of Palestinians dead, and engaged in ground clashes against Hamas fighters in northern Gaza.
• At least eight Palestinians are have been killed by Israeli forces in the northern West Bank governate of Jenin.

Hybrid escalation scenario 

• Iran said it will activate advanced uranium-enriching centrifuges in response to a resolution from the International Atomic Energy Agency calling for a review of Iran’s nuclear program that would likely lead to additional sanctions.
• The International Criminal Court has issued arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, alleging their involvement in war crimes in Gaza.
• The United Kingdom and the European Union expanded their sanctions against Iran, citing its provision of missiles to Russia for use against Ukraine. Iran has repeatedly denied the allegations.
• A British vessel traversing the Red Sea reported two missiles landing in the water next to it over a two-day period. No casualties or damage occurred. The missiles are believed to have been fired by the Houthi militant group.

Diplomatic de-escalation scenario 

• Hochstein traveled from Beirut to Jerusalem after Lebanese government and Hezbollah officials signaled their approval over the points of a potential truce with Israel. Hochstein, who has expressed strong optimism over the peace proposal, will present the conditions to Israeli officials in Jerusalem.
• Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz declared that any peace deal between Israel and Hezbollah must include conditions giving Israel the right to conduct military operations inside Lebanese territory and airspace to protect Israeli citizens.

Summary

Tensions in the Indo-Pacific trended toward military and hybrid escalation as the U.S. provided more military aid to the Philippines and reaffirmed its commitment to defend the region with local allies. The U.S. signed defense procurement contracts with Taiwan. Chinese President Xi Jinping signed several cooperation agreements during the G20 summit in Brazil and the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum in Peru.

Forecast indicators 

Military escalation scenario 

• U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin announced the transfer of an undisclosed number of Mantas T-12 autonomous unmanned surface vessels to the Philippine navy to be used for surveillance and reconnaissance operations within the country’s exclusive economic zone in the South China Sea.
• The U.S. has set up a new task force to support Philippine military operations, mainly through the provision of intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance.
• A top South Korean official warned that Russia has supplied air-defense missile systems to North Korea in exchange for its commitment of troops to Ukraine.
• Defense chiefs from the U.S., Japan, South Korea, Australia, and the Philippines emphasized their shared commitment to a free and open Indo-Pacific and agreed to collaborate on tackling global and regional issues, including North Korean-Russian collaboration, during the Association of Southeast Asian Nations defense ministerial meeting in Laos.
• Australian Defense Minister Richard Marles announced Japanese troops would begin to take part in regular deployments in northern Australia along with their Australian and U.S. counterparts.
• North Korea warned of “retaliatory responses” to last week’s announcement of a trilateral secretariat among the U.S., South Korea, and Japan aimed at boosting defense cooperation.
• Taiwan’s Government e-Procurement System announced it had signed three defense contracts with the U.S. worth more than $326 million.
• The U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission issued a report warning of China’s electronic warfare capabilities, which would present a “significant challenge” to the U.S. if conflict broke out across the Taiwan Strait.

Hybrid escalation scenario 

• Authorities are investigating after two data cables were severed in the Baltic Sea between Finland and Germany in what some European leaders have claimed is an act of sabotage. Swedish investigators are closely following the movements of a Chinese bulk carrier in the area at the time of the incident.
• China announced a number of policies aimed at boosting foreign trade, including strengthening support for firms and expanding agricultural products exports.
• North Korean loudspeakers broadcasting disruptive noises have caused significant mental distress to nearly 28% of assessed South Korean residents living near border with the North.
• A BBC investigation of satellite imagery revealed Russia has been supplying North Korea with over one million barrels of oil this year, in defiance of UN sanctions.
• China has expanded its EU anti-subsidy program launched in August to specifically investigate subsidies from Denmark, France, Italy, and the Netherlands.
• Texas Governor Greg Abbot has ordered state agencies to stop investing in China and to sell all Chinese assets, citing increased security and financial risks.
• Trump adviser Mauricio Claver-Carone proposed expanding the president-elect’s planned 60% tariffs on goods imported from China to those passing through a newly opened Chinese-financed port in Peru.
• A bill strengthening counterespionage laws, an effort to boost New Zealand’s defenses against foreign interference, passed the first of three readings in Parliament.

Diplomatic de-escalation scenario 

• Xi met with U.S. President Joe Biden during the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum in Peru to discuss issues including cybercrime, trade, Russia, Taiwan, and the South China Sea. He also vowed to work with the incoming Trump administration on matters of mutual interest.
• Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi called for the resumption of direct flights between China and India after a meeting with his Indian counterpart, Subrahmanyam Jaishankar.
• China appointed a new ambassador to Ukraine, Ma Shengkun, who vowed to build deeper bilateral ties between the countries.
• Argentinian President Javier Milei met with Xi on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Brazil and vowed to boost trade with China.
• Chinese Vice Commerce Minister Wang Shouwen stated that China was ready to “resist” external trade shocks from the U.S., but that Beijing is willing to pursue active dialogue to further bilateral economic and trade relations.
• A Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson announced China will be expanding its visa-free arrangement to include travelers from Japan, Bulgaria, Romania, Croatia, and Montenegro, from Nov. 30, 2024, to Dec 31, 2025.
• Xi and Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva are set to sign a number of agreements increasing bilateral trade and investment across the agricultural, energy, and aerospace sectors.
• Senior officials from Saudi Arabia, Iran, and China reaffirmed their countries’ commitments to increasing cooperation and diplomatic ties during a diplomatic meeting in Riyadh.

United States

• Trump nominated Chris Wright, the CEO of Denver-based oilfield services company Liberty Energy, as his energy secretary, with a mandate to cut regulations, and Linda McMahon, World Wrestling Entertainment CEO, as his education secretary.
• Former U.S. Rep. Matt Gaetz has withdrawn from consideration as attorney general. Trump has nominated prosecutor Pam Bondi in his stead.
• U.S. universities are preparing for the possibility of funding cuts under the new administration, as Trump and his advisers have criticized diversity programs in higher education.
• The Los Angeles City Council passed a “sanctuary city” ordinance, barring the use of local resources to aid federal immigration authorities.
• Significance: State and subnational-level groups are taking measures to prepare for incoming Trump administration policies.

Venezuela

• U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken recognized opposition candidate Edmundo González as the president-elect of Venezuela in a post on social media site X. González said he plans to return to Venezuela and be inaugurated as president on Jan. 10.
• Venezuelan Attorney General Tarek William Saab said the government released 225 political prisoners who have been detained since late July and early August. However, Foro Penal, a Venezuelan nongovernmental organization, could only verify 107 releases.
• Significance: González’s return could lead to crackdowns by the Venezuelan government and political unrest. The release of political prisoners is an effort by the government to gain public approval before inauguration day.

South Africa

• Around 400 illegal miners, primarily from Mozambique and Zimbabwe, have been trapped for days in an abandoned gold mine in Stilfontein in the North West province.
• South African police have surrounded the mine’s entrance ready to arrest the miners once they emerge. Security forces initially prevented the delivery of food, water, and medical supplies to the miners, but a court ruled that aid be allowed to resume last week. Police, responding to comments made by President Cyril Ramaphosa, later agreed to help rescue the miners even though other government officials advocated for taking action to force the miners out.
• Significance: Illegal mining contributes to both economic and security destabilization. It results in an estimated $1 billion annual revenue loss. Illegal mining operations are often connected to criminal groups, with violence targeting security forces. The ongoing Stilfontein standoff also has the potential to cause political destabilization, as different government authorities disagree on the appropriate response, and as Stilfontein residents perceive that sparse government resources are given to undocumented, illegal miners rather than the local community.