The Middle East Center at The New Lines Institute for Strategy and Policy is proud to initiate a special new podcast series “Bridging the Gap: Conversations on Israel and Palestine.” This series is led by Rachel Nelson, the Analyst in the Middle East Center, and will provide nuanced, detailed, and on-the-ground perspectives on the situation in Israel and Palestine. In this inaugural episode, Middle East Center co-director Nicholas A. Heras sits down with Rachel Nelson to learn more about her extensive experience in the West Bank and to gain her analysis on the metastasizing conflict there. Heras and Nelson also explore why the tensions between the expanding Israeli settler community and the local Palestinian population in the West Bank could devolve into a larger war that would end the prospects for the Two State Solution to end the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict.
Nicholas Heras:
Hello, everyone, and welcome to this exciting launch of a new podcast series hosted at the Middle East Center at the New Lines Institute for Strategy and Policy. This series is called Bridging the Gap, Conversations on Israel and Palestine, and it is led by Rachel Nelson, the analyst in the Middle East Center here at the New Lines Institute. This podcast series will provide nuanced, detailed, and on-the-ground perspectives on the situation in Israel and Palestine. It will also explore many different understudied aspects of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict that are of great interest to policymakers here in the United States, in the Middle East, and for the wider world.
In this inaugural episode, I will sit down with Rachel Nelson to understand her extensive experience on the ground in Israel and Palestine, especially in the West Bank, and to explore why the tensions between the expanding Israeli settler community and the local Palestinian population in the West Bank could devolve into a larger war that would end the prospects, for the two-state solution to end the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Rachel, thank you for joining us for this discussion today, and we’re looking forward to this new podcast series that will be led by you.
Rachel, I’d like to start off our discussion by asking you to give us a bit more about your background in this topic. You have extensive experience on the ground in Israel and Palestine. You’ve traveled throughout the West Bank or Judea and Samaria. What, from your point of view, is the situation as it stands now in January 2025 in the West Bank?
Rachel Nelson:
Thanks for having me, Nick. So academically, I’ve studied Palestine-Israel for over six years from a variety of lenses, which includes the history of the region, international law and international humanitarian law, peace building and dialogue building, conflict resolution, modern politics, and the effects and impacts on a society in protracted social conflict. I also have a background in Middle Eastern and Middle Eastern Jewish history, which really informs a lot of the work that I do on Palestine-Israel. In the summer of 2023, I was based in Ramallah in the occupied West Bank, where I collaborated on a research project and then co-authored a report on 501(c)(3) organizations or charitable organizations based in the United States that are financially supporting and funding Israeli settlement establishment expansion, and then providing material support to settlements and how in some ways that material support is being used to perpetuate Israeli settler acts of terrorism targeting Palestinian civilians.
This report was really meant to expose these financial flows and how the hundreds upon hundreds of millions of dollars coming from American tax-exempt organizations impact Palestinians living in the West Bank. And so while conducting this research, I traveled extensively through the West Bank, meeting with Palestinians impacted by Israeli settlements and settler terrorism.
And so now onto what’s on the ground right now, a lot of policymakers regard the two-state solution as dead and unviable at this stage, given the amount of failed peace processes and the expansion of Israeli settlements in what would be a Palestinian state, so the West Bank. And it may be including Gaza, although at this point with the war, things are really up in the air. In my personal opinion, I don’t think we’ve hit the point of no return, but it’s definitely close.
So for some context, there are currently over 700,000 Israeli settlers in the occupied Palestinian territory. So that includes the West Bank and East Jerusalem, and they’re spread between about 300 settlements and settlement outposts. And just a clarification, a settlement outpost is just an Israeli settlement and it was established without government approval and therefore illegal under Israeli law. But important clarification, all settlements in the occupied Palestinian territory are illegal under international law. And so these settlements are often placed in areas surrounding major Palestinian population centers like Nablus, Ramallah, Bethlehem, and Hebron. And this is done on purpose. Israel’s deemed these areas areas of national priority as they disrupt Palestinian continuity. So it effectively makes any future Palestinian state is unviable. So a visual example is this. A Palestinian driving from Ramallah to Bethlehem, which is only a distance of about 30 kilometers, that should take only about 30 minutes. But because of the location of settlements, this journey could take anywhere from two to four hours. And that doesn’t even include the Israeli checkpoints scattered throughout the West Bank.
And these large Israeli settlement blocks around East Jerusalem have been expanding exponentially with more land and housing slated to be approved and constructed over the next few years. And then there’s also settlements and settlement outposts deep in the West Bank that are also growing at alarming rates, and they’re established on a regular basis. These are the settlements that are often established on ideological and religious bases, and these are often the settlers perpetuating most acts of Israeli settler terrorism. But because the government supports these settlements and now that there are some government officials who are settlers themselves, a lot of these settlement outposts are becoming legalized under Israeli law as well. And that’s because this current right wing government we’re seeing in Israel favors annexation of the entire West Bank. And so settlement expansion is occurring at an alarming rate to displace Palestinians so that they’re not annexed along with the land that Israel would like to annex.
And so this year saw the largest Israeli land seizures since 1993 Oslo Accords with plans for 2025 even larger. And as settlements have expanded, so has the violence we’re seeing currently. This is not only attributed to acts of Israeli settler violence and Palestinian violence, but as the settler population grows, so too does the presence of Israeli soldiers as they’re there to mostly protect settlements. So this has increased violence significantly, with the UN reporting over 500 Palestinians killed this year by Israeli forces and settlers, including many children. So we’re seeing violence really explode in the territory right now.
Nicholas Heras:
Rachel, that does seem like an extremely warian trend line that we’re seeing in the West Bank or Judea and Samaria, depending on how you want to phrase it. There’s a lot of commentators that believe that the expansion of Israeli settlements in the West Bank, Judea, Samaria, is making it very difficult for the two-state solution to happen. From your point of view, how do these dynamics play out where you have an expansion of Israeli settlements in that territory and the effect it can have on the two-state solution, especially as we have a new administration set to take power in Washington, D.C. What does this mean for what has been essentially one of the pillars of U.S. policy on the Israel-Palestine conflict for over 40 years now?
Rachel Nelson:
Definitely. Policymakers are really regarding the two-state solution as dead, although the Biden administration has really reaffirmed the United States’ commitment to achieving a U.S.-brokered two-state solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. But as things currently look on the ground, settlements block any chance of a viable Palestinian state in the West Bank. Currently, you can’t get anywhere between Palestinian population centers without having to go through an Israeli settlement, and you can’t go through an Israeli settlement. There are private roads. And therefore any chance of a viable Palestinian state will have to grapple with perhaps land swaps for Israel to integrate some of the settlements into Israel proper. But as it stands right now with settlements multiplying the way that they are, the two-state solution is really unviable.
Nicholas Heras:
So from this point of view, there does seem to be a massive uptick in violence in the West Bank or Judea, Samaria. What is on the ground? There’s a lot of sub–dynamics you have and expanding, as you pointed out, Israeli population in this territory now, 700,000 or more people, that’s slated to be, if current trend lines continue, to be over a million Israeli citizens in the West Bank, Judea, Samaria, by the end of this decade, by 2030. You have over two and a half million Palestinians in this territory. So at that local level, we have all these people sort of crammed together in a very small area. What are the dynamics at the local level that drive this significant uptick in violence?
Rachel Nelson:
First, I think it’s best to lay out some of the facts and figures we’ve seen in the last year. So UNOCHA reports that 2024 produced the highest rates of Israeli settler terrorism in the West Bank ever over the two decades that they’ve reported on the situation there. They reported that in 2024, over 4,000 Palestinians were displaced by Israeli settler terrorism or threats of violence, over 1,700 structures were destroyed, and about 1,400 incidents of violence were perpetuated by Israeli settlers against Palestinian civilians. And these acts include threats of violence and intimidation, arson, massive rampages through Palestinian villages, which we’ve seen kind of in the media lately, property destruction, assault, prevention of access to land, prevention of access to natural resources, and even murder.
So one specific driver of intensified Israeli settler terrorism is the land itself. Extremist Israeli settlers see the West Bank, or as they call it, Judea and Samaria, as the rightful homeland of the Jewish people, and therefore their divine right. Palestinians are seen as invaders that must be displaced. Furthermore, settlements are naturally prevented from expanding because of existing Palestinian villages, private property, and infrastructure, and therefore settlers are attacking Palestinians to gain greater access to these lands so that they can appropriate them for themselves.
Another driver of intensified Israeli settler terrorism is reprisals. Settlers have in the past referred to their acts of terrorism as, quote, “price tag attacks.”. So if a Palestinian is accused of harming a settler, in some cases them, their family, or even like the whole village is attacked in retaliation. Furthermore, Hamas’ October 7th attack escalated violence significantly. So Palestinian civilians in the West Bank were effectively collectively punished by settlers. Also, increased government support for Israeli settlers and even settler terrorism itself has emboldened Israeli settlers to ramp up their attacks on civilians. As Israeli ministers Smotrich and Ben-Gvir have publicly supported settler terrorists, arming them with weapons, calling for them to wipe Palestinian villages off the map, it’s really a very volatile situation.
And then, in regards to Palestinian terrorism and territory, this is often driven by a want for reprisals as well. We’re seeing increased freedom of movement restrictions on Palestinians escalating instances of Palestinian violence, for example, at Israeli checkpoints throughout the West Bank. And really importantly, Palestinians are deeply unsatisfied with their current situation. They lack basic human rights, which includes that freedom of movement restriction I discussed earlier, access to natural resources, the right to build, Israel’s employment of administrative detention in military courts. And there’s been no genuine movement on a peace deal to alleviate their suffering for decades. And so this is really just amping up all the violence. We’re seeing a lot of distrust. But it’s really escalating violence in the territory.
Nicholas Heras:
Well, this is a really dangerous situation that you have in the West Bank, Judea, Samaria, and we’ve seen that the United States government has been, in many ways, scrambling to keep up with the dynamics on the ground in that territory. And although the Biden administration, as it exits stage left, has had an extremely controversial policy toward the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, one fascinating and important dynamic is that the Biden administration has pioneered in many ways sanctions use against Israeli settler organizations that the U.S. government deems having conducted violence against Palestinian civilians in the West Bank, Judea, Samaria. And so from this point of view, President Biden leaves office with a complicated record on the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. So I want to ask you, Rachel, from your point of view, with all your experience on the ground in that territory, what does this mean that the United States government under the Biden administration has taken these unprecedented steps on this question of Israeli settler violence?
Rachel Nelson:
You’re absolutely right. The Biden administration has taken the most action of any administration against Israeli settlers and settler terrorism in the West Bank highlighting an often ignored issues. Previous administrations have never touched on Israeli settlers before in a genuine manner. So President Biden issued an executive order in February of 2024 in coordination with the Office of Foreign Assets Control, or OFAC, which would sanction any person or organization undermining peace and security in the West Bank. So in effect, this could target settlers, organizations, and even Palestinians. And so far, the bulk of the sanctions have been levied against Israeli settlers and settler organizations, and I think there was maybe only one sanction against a Palestinian so far. And this is only in cases where there’s evidence that they have participated, incited, promoted, or financed acts of terrorism against Palestinian civilians or Israeli settlers in the territory.
I believe that there are two major motivators that incentivized the Biden administration to apply these sanctions and tackle the issue of West Bank violence. The first is that this reaffirms the U.S. commitment to a two-state solution. The current war in Gaza has seen settlement expansion intensify and violence escalate to unseen levels, all the while the U.S. has really offered Israel unwavering support for its war in Gaza. Targeting settlers allowed the Biden administration to support Israel’s war, while at the same time show disapproval for other actions that the Israeli government has taken. So settlements and settler violence.
And then relatedly to this issue, another motivation for these sanctions was the pressure the Biden administration was under during the 2024 presidential election. This key demographic of young leftist voters were very, very critical of the administration’s support of Israel’s extremely destructive and deadly war in Gaza. And therefore, the Biden administration sought to appease voters by issuing sanctions that would hold Israeli settler terrorists accountable. And I mean, this has really become a big issue. The Western media has really taken hold of Israeli settler terrorism as of late. And so these sanctions could, sadly, be revoked under the incoming Trump administration, whose first term saw U.S. policy drastically shift on Israel’s West Bank settlements, one from condemnation to stating that settlements are, quote, “not inconsistent with international law.”. So especially given Trump’s picks for positions related to Palestine-Israel, we could see a U.S. policy that opposes settlements shift yet again.
Nicholas Heras:
Thank you, Rachel. It’s really important that you highlight the fact that as we transition from the Biden administration to the second come in of the Trump administration, there are a lot of questions about how the U.S. role in engaging with Israel-Palestinian conflict will unfold. And in its first iteration, the Trump administration did spend a significant amount of time and energy trying to develop a peace plan to end the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. Now, that plan was controversial, however, it was a serious effort engaged by the Trump administration, and it does seem like in his second term in office, President Trump does want to be able to say that he ended the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. From your point of view, if you were brought in and you were asked by the Trump administration what is one thing that they could do that is comparatively easier than any other thing to reduce the tensions and violence in the West Bank, Judea, Samaria, what would it be?
Rachel Nelson:
I think the first thing I would advise the Trump administration to do to restore more peace and stability to the West Bank would be to call on the Israeli government to halt settlement establishment and expansion. This could be done by implementing a plan similar to former President George H.W. Bush, which would entail tying U.S. military assistance packages to a guaranteed and extremely visible stop to government settlement activity. Additionally, the Trump administration should not revoke existing sanctions on Israeli settlers and settler organizations. This could signal that the U.S. is not only soft on countering international terrorism, but that it is not genuinely engaged in brokering a two-state political solution to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. And then, in my opinion, that would be a major mistake.
They should instead issue more sanctions on Israeli settlers undermining peace and committing terrorism in the West Bank. Also, Israeli human rights organization Yesh Din reports that the overwhelming majority of reports of Israeli settler terrorism are never investigated by Israeli police, and that of those investigated, only about 3% end up in indictment. The Trump administration should call on the Israeli government to meaningfully combat and prosecute Israeli settler terrorism in the West Bank, as this would extremely mitigate some of the violence that we’re seeing right now.
Nicholas Heras:
Rachel, thank you for that policy analysis, and it sounds like you have a lot of work planned here at the New Lines Institute that looks at the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. So I wanted to give you the opportunity to explain to our listeners some of what you have coming down the pike.
Rachel Nelson:
Thanks, Nick. I’m working on some very exciting projects. I’ll soon have a report come out on Israeli settler terrorism and how referring to it as settler violence not only dismisses the on-the-ground reality of Palestinians in the West Bank, but complicates and damages U.S. foreign policy in the region and U.S. reputation for countering international terrorism. I’m also excited to begin my own podcast series at New lines about Palestine-Israel.
Nicholas Heras:
Well, thank you very much for joining us for this discussion, Rachel, and thank you all for listening today. If you liked this episode, remember to subscribe to New lines on SoundCloud, Spotify, or anywhere else you get your podcasts. Visit www.newlinesinstitute.org if you’d like to hear more from our team of experts on all sorts of important topics and global affairs. We will see you in the next episode, which Rachel will be hosting. All the best. Goodbye.
The views expressed in this article are those of the author and not an official policy or position of the New Lines Institute.