Miloš Maggiore is a consultant in the Analytical Products team at New Lines, focusing his analysis on researching the Indo-Pacific and other hotspots for the weekly forecast monitor. Before joining New Lines, Maggiore was a master’s candidate in international relations at Johns Hopkins SAIS. His research has included European security, emerging technologies, and maritime security in the Indo-Pacific. He previously graduated with a master’s in international conflict and criminology from Amsterdam’s Free University. He has worked in NGOs concerned with humanitarian assistance in Greece as a worker in a refugee camp. He was an assistant in a local Amnesty International group in the Netherlands and worked on researching wildlife crimes for a South African start up. He has work experience in finance and think tanks.
In the last Global Hotspots episode of 2025, Milos and Andrew sit down with New Lines student fellows Ashley Nunes and Sebastian Dittgen. Together, they discuss the other hotspots covered in 2025, includng Venezuela, the DRC, and the wave of Gen Z protests around the globe.
A global adaptation to a new state of the world driven by the White House’s approach to international relations will headline 2026. Efforts to de-escalate the war in Ukraine will persist and gain some traction. In the Middle East, the fragile ceasefire in Gaza will hold as tensions among Israel, Syria, and Iran continue to mount. A U.S.-China trade truce will keep the Indo-Pacific relatively stable economically, as the rival powers continue to vie for influence with diplomatic and security repercussions that extend well beyond the region. Global trade flows are expected to stabilize, supported by improving logistics conditions and more resilient supply-chain networks. At the same time, renewable energy will expand through new installations and a rising share in power generation, reinforced by efficiency gains from AI-driven technologies. Deteriorating humanitarian conditions in Sudan and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the possibility of armed conflict in Venezuela, and youth-driven protest movements will pose destabilization risks to various degrees around the world.
This week, U.S.-Venezuela tensions escalated as U.S. forces boarded and seized a sanctioned oil tanker off Venezuela’s coast. In the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Ukraine launched drone attacks against Moscow and Russian shadow fleet tankers in the Black Sea, while European leaders held a phone call with U.S. President Donald Trump to advance peace efforts. In the Indo-Pacific, fighting resumed between Thailand and Cambodia, and the U.S. conducted a joint military drill with Japan in response to Chinese military deployments near Japanese airspace. In the Middle East, Israel-Hamas ceasefire efforts stalled over issues dealing with the disarmament of Hamas, and Trump delayed the announcement of members of the Gaza Board of Peace until next year.
These past two weeks, the U.S. ramped up diplomatic efforts with Russia and Ukraine to bring an end to the conflict, while Russian shadow fleet vessels were allegedly struck by Ukrainian drones. In the Middle East, Hamas transferred the remains of a hostage to Israel, while Lebanon confirmed it would conduct deconfliction talks with Israel following pressure from the United States. In the Indo-Pacific, U.S. President Donald Trump halted planned sanctions against China’s Ministry of State Security, and China ramped up its military presence near Japan amid increased tensions over Taiwan.
