Analyst, Analytical Development and Training Department
Miloš Maggiore is a consultant in the Analytical Products team at New Lines, focusing his analysis on researching the Indo-Pacific and other hotspots for the weekly forecast monitor. Before joining New Lines, Maggiore was a master’s candidate in international relations at Johns Hopkins SAIS. His research has included European security, emerging technologies, and maritime security in the Indo-Pacific. He previously graduated with a master’s in international conflict and criminology from Amsterdam’s Free University. He has worked in NGOs concerned with humanitarian assistance in Greece as a worker in a refugee camp. He was an assistant in a local Amnesty International group in the Netherlands and worked on researching wildlife crimes for a South African start up. He has work experience in finance and think tanks.
This week, Israel accepted a U.S. proposal to end the war in Gaza that has received support from Qatar and Egypt, while U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order providing safety guarantees to Qatar. In the Russia/Ukraine conflict, Trump is considering providing Ukraine with Tomahawk cruise missiles and targeting intelligence, and G7 countries pledged to coordinate measures against nations importing Russian oil. In the Indo-Pacific, documents revealed that Russia was aiding China in its planning of airborne operations, while the U.S. indicated it was not making efforts to lower tariffs against China. In the U.S., a government shutdown began following deadlocked talks between Republicans and Democrats.
The fourth quarter of 2025 will be headlined by the potential for military escalation in the Middle East, including increased Israeli operations in Gaza and the expansion of Israel’s targeting of Iran-aligned groups throughout the region.
In the Russia/Ukraine conflict, the fourth quarter will be marked by hybrid escalation in the form of additional Western tariffs and sanctions against Russia as the diplomatic track to reach an end to the conflict will continue to prove elusive.
In the Indo-Pacific, the fourth quarter will see diplomatic de-escalation as the U.S. and China make further progress toward a trade agreement that lowers tariffs. In global connectivity themes, there will be slight enhancements in trade in the fourth quarter as the White House’s tariffs and technology restrictions rebalance and broadly settle into a new normal, while AI-driven boosts in power consumption and climate-related threats raise the risk of energy disruption.
This week, in the wake of an Israeli air attack targeting Hamas leadership in Qatar, Doha called for an emergency summit to convene next week. In the Russia/Ukraine conflict, NATO forces shot down Russian drones that crossed into Polish airspace from Ukraine, with Poland subsequently triggering NATO’s Article 4 consultation process. In the Indo-Pacific, U.S. President Donald Trump demanded that the EU pressure Russia by imposing tariffs on China and India. Meanwhile, the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement agency apprehended 300 South Korean workers in Georgia, most of whom have since left the United States. In the U.S., conservative media personality and Trump ally Charlie Kirk was shot and killed at an event in Utah.
