Weekly Forecast Monitor: Oct. 24, 2025

The Russia/Ukraine war trended toward hybrid escalation as the U.S. imposed sanctions against Russian oil majors Rosneft and Lukoil. In response to the sanctions, China suspended seaborne imports of Russian oil. The EU also issued new sanctions against Russia targeting Russia’s “shadow fleet” and restricting the movement of Russian diplomats across Europe. The White House canceled a summit between Trump and Putin that was to have been held in Budapest. These actions from the U.S. and Europe follow a recent meeting between Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in which Trump declined to provide Ukraine with Tomahawk cruise missiles and urged Zelenskyy to give up Ukrainian land to advance peace efforts. Meanwhile, Russia continued its bombardment of Ukrainian cities and infrastructure.

The Middle East trended toward diplomatic de-escalation as U.S. Vice President JD Vance and U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio traveled to Israel in an effort to preserve the ongoing ceasefire implementation between Israel and Hamas. The diplomatic push follows recent clashes between the IDF and Hamas militants, as well as numerous incidents of Palestinian civilians being killed by Israeli forces near the “yellow line” inside Gaza. Meanwhile, the Israeli Knesset approved legislation that advances the annexation of portions of the West Bank, drawing condemnation from Rubio and Vance. The IDF carried out a series of bombings and ground operations against Hezbollah targets in Lebanon. Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei rejected the possibility of resuming negotiations with the U.S. following statements by Trump on his openness to achieving a nuclear deal with Iran during a recent visit to Israel.

The Indo-Pacific trended toward diplomatic de-escalation this week as the U.S. confirmed that Trump will meet with Xi as part of a wider visit to Indo-Pacific countries over the next two weeks. Trump met with Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese to sign a new critical minerals deal intended on reducing U.S. reliance on China. Trump will meet with new Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi on Oct. 28, who followed her recent election with pledges to bolster Japan’s economy and defense spending. China’s Ministry of State Security accused the U.S. National Security Agency of disrupting networks and gathering intelligence from China’s National Time Service Center. The Chinese Communist Party released a communique outlining policy strategies following a four-day meeting on the country’s next five-year plan.

United States/Colombia

Trump said he would impose extra tariffs on Colombia and cut all payments to the country after calling Colombian President Gustavo Petro an “illegal drug leader” amid ongoing U.S. military strikes against vessels allegedly linked to Colombian rebel groups. Forecast – hybrid escalation scenario

United States

The U.S. Court of Appeals for the 9th Circuit overturned a previous ruling that had blocked the Trump administration’s efforts to deploy national guard troops to Portland, Oregon, allowing the deployment to go ahead as planned. Forecast – security destabilization scenario

Armenia/Azerbaijan

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan welcomed Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev’s announcement that he would lift trade restrictions with Armenia during the 2025 Tbilisi Silk Road Forum. Forecast – diplomatic de-escalation scenario

The Global Connectivity Tracker examines the impact of geopolitical dynamics on key themes like trade, technology, and energy/climate.

India/Energy/Economy

India has drafted a $21 trillion plan to help it reach economic and emissions goals, Bloomberg reported. Under the plan, developed by the government think tank Niti Aayog, the country would achieve net-zero carbon emissions by 2070 by significantly changing its energy mix. The plan calls for renewable sources to generate as much as 65% of India’s energy needs, with coal, which currently makes up about half the country’s electric generation, falling to about 4%. Achieving the goals of the draft plan would depend on harnessing developing technologies such as carbon capture and significantly expanding its nuclear energy sector. The plan also includes a strategy for doubling industrial and residential infrastructure from its current levels, with the goal of helping ease much of its population out of poverty with investments bolstering its industrial capacity and energy infrastructure.

Forecast – energy enhancement scenario: If realized, the plan would significantly remake India’s economy and remove it from the list of the globe’s top carbon emitters.

Japan/Nuclear

A day after her election as prime minister, Takaichi announced plans to accelerate the restart of nuclear reactors as part of a broader push to cut dependence on imported fossil fuels. After the 2011 Fukushima disaster led to a nationwide reactor shutdown, Japan’s nuclear share of electricity generation fell from 30% in 2010 to below 10% in 2024. The government now aims for nuclear power to supply 20% of electricity by 2040. Currently, 14 of Japan’s 33 operable reactors have been restarted, with 11 more undergoing approval. Japan’s renewed commitment to nuclear power reflects a strategic effort to strengthen energy security and decarbonization goals.

Forecast – energy enhancement scenario: The plan could reduce Japan’s exposure to liquefied natural gas (LNG) import fluctuations and reassert its technological leadership in nuclear safety and reactor design.

EU/Russia/Gas

EU energy ministers approved a plan to gradually phase out Russian natural gas imports. The regulation, which awaits final confirmation from the European Parliament, would prohibit pipeline gas and LNG imports from Russia in stages, with a final ban on Jan. 1, 2028. This regulation is crucial to the EU’s goal of ending its energy dependence on Russia. Putting an end to gas shipments from Russia would disrupt a major source of revenue for Russia’s war in Ukraine.

Forecast – energy enhancement scenario: This will expedite the adoption of renewable energy, enhance energy efficiency, and reduce carbon emissions.

Russia/Ukraine/Coal

Russian forces launched an assault on a coal mine in southeastern Ukraine, according to the site’s operators. During the past two months, the Russian military has launched four attacks against coal mining operations. Russia is conducting these strikes as part of a larger plan to damage Ukraine’s energy infrastructure as winter approaches.

Forecast – energy disruption scenario: Recent military strikes on Ukrainian coal mines and energy infrastructure have caused production stoppages, power outages, injuries, and pollution.