This week, Israel accepted a U.S. proposal to end the war in Gaza that has received support from Qatar and Egypt, while U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order providing safety guarantees to Qatar. In the Russia/Ukraine conflict, Trump is considering providing Ukraine with Tomahawk cruise missiles and targeting intelligence, and G7 countries pledged to coordinate measures against nations importing Russian oil. In the Indo-Pacific, documents revealed that Russia was aiding China in its planning of airborne operations, while the U.S. indicated it was not making efforts to lower tariffs against China. In the U.S., a government shutdown began following deadlocked talks between Republicans and Democrats.
Weekly Forecast Monitor: Oct. 3, 2025
The Geopolitical Hotspots Monitor examines the outlook for key geopolitical hotspots around the world.
1 Russia/Ukraine Conflict
The Russia/Ukraine war trended toward hybrid escalation as Trump approved a decision to provide Ukraine with intelligence to support the targeting of Russian energy infrastructure with long-range missiles, and Vice President JD Vance said the U.S. is considering providing Ukraine with Tomahawk cruise missiles. Ukraine’s intensified campaign against Russian energy infrastructure has caused a fuel shortage across Russia and in Russian-occupied Crimea. European leaders are weighing a plan to provide Ukraine with a $165 billion loan backed by frozen Russian assets, while G7 finance ministers pledged to pursue “significant and coordinated measures” against nations importing Russian oil. Meanwhile, Russia continued its bombardment of cities across Ukraine, and Russian forces made slight advances in Ukraine’s Dnipropetrovsk oblast.
2 Middle East
The Middle East trended toward diplomatic de-escalation as Israel accepted Trump’s 20-point peace proposal for the war in Gaza. Hamas has yet to announce a decision on the proposal, although Qatar supports the plan and is pressuring Hamas leadership to accept it, along with Egypt and Türkiye. Trump has threatened that Hamas will “pay in hell” if the militant group does not accept the deal within “three or four days.” The militant group Palestinian Islamic Jihad, which is holding Israeli hostages in Gaza, walked back an initial rejection of the offer and is pushing for revisions. The Israel Defense Forces on Oct. 1 announced a “final opportunity” for civilians to evacuate Gaza City, with Defense Minister Israel Katz saying that anyone remaining in the city would be considered an active combatant. Trump issued an executive order providing security guarantees for Qatar following Israel’s Sept. 9 bombing of Doha. Syria’s first parliamentary elections following the fall of the regime of former President Bashar al-Assad are scheduled for Oct. 5.
3 U.S./China/Indo-Pacific
The Indo-Pacific maintained the status quo this week, as U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer indicated the U.S. was making no immediate efforts to lower tariffs on Chinese goods in ongoing trade discussions. Leaked Russian documents revealed that Russia has been providing equipment and training to China that could be used during airborne operations against Taiwan. The Trump administration concluded its review of its trilateral treaty with the U.K. and Australia and agreed to keep it active. Taiwan rejected a U.S. proposal that would have seen half of the island’s semiconductor industry move to the United States. India and Taiwan have separately hinted that they would be open to reducing purchases of Russian crude oil.
4 Other Hotspots
United States
The U.S. government entered a shutdown on Oct. 1 following a breakdown in negotiations between Republicans and Democrats. Meanwhile, U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth denounced “fat generals” and diversity programs on Tuesday, blaming them for weakening the military over decades, and urged commanders at a rare gathering in Quantico, Va., to step down if they oppose his agenda. Forecast – political/economic destabilization scenario
Afghanistan
Afghanistan experienced a rare nationwide internet blackout on Monday, with reports pointing to a disruption of fiber-optic services possibly linked to a Taliban campaign against “immorality.” This marks the first shutdown of its kind since the Taliban assumed power in August 2021. Forecast – political destabilization scenario
Madagascar
Madagascan President Andry Rajoelina dismissed Prime Minister Christian Ntsay and his Cabinet on Sept. 29 following days of protests that left at least 22 protesters dead and more than 100 injured over persistent electricity and water shortages. In a televised address, Rajoelina said the outgoing officials would serve in an interim capacity until a new government is established, inviting applications for Cabinet posts and setting a three-day window to review candidates for prime minister. Forecast – political destabilization scenario
5 Global Connectivity
The Global Connectivity Tracker examines the impact of geopolitical dynamics on key themes like trade, technology, and energy/climate.
Middle East/North Africa/Electricity
A report by the International Energy Agency projected a 50% increase in electricity consumption in the Middle East and North Africa over the next decade, driven by urbanization and increases in water desalination and cooling demand. The report said that to meet the increasing demand, countries in the region will turn to natural gas, nuclear power, and renewable sources of generation while decreasing the use of oil, which currently constitutes 20% of the region’s electricity mix.
Forecast: Energy Enhancement Scenario – Plans to add about 300 gigawatts of electric generation by 2035 will drive about $66 billion in investment, much of which will be spent updating the region’s power grids, the IEA projected.
Australia/Natural Gas
The Australian government is struggling to secure sufficient natural gas supply for the domestic market, amid structural challenges such as limited competition and weak investment signals. In response, it has introduced measures like mandating producers to reserve uncontracted liquefied natural gas for local use. These measures have improved gas availability but have not significantly improved outcomes for gas consumers. Southern states remain particularly exposed, as they rely heavily on gas transported from Queensland. Notably, producers in the south are not forecasting surplus output even during typically low-demand months, raising concerns about adequately replenishing storage ahead of winter.
Forecast: Energy Disruption Scenario – Ongoing underinvestment in domestic production and storage infrastructure such as pipelines, interconnectors, and southern storage facilities is affecting long-term supply security.
China/Renewable Energy
China has set a new renewable energy target by expanding the deployment of solar photovoltaic and wind power. China’s new plan calls for the installation of 3,600 gigawatts of wind and solar power generation capacity by 2035, aiming to lower greenhouse gas emissions by 7-10%. China is investing extensively in renewables, building smart grid and storage systems, and manufacturing clean energy technologies.
Forecast: Climate Enhancement Scenario – This new target aims to accelerate the country’s clean energy transition. The initiative will benefit the Chinese economy by contributing to the creation of new jobs in the renewable energy sector and lessening reliance on fossil fuels for power generation.