This week, in the wake of an Israeli air attack targeting Hamas leadership in Qatar, Doha called for an emergency summit to convene next week. In the Russia/Ukraine conflict, NATO forces shot down Russian drones that crossed into Polish airspace from Ukraine, with Poland subsequently triggering NATO’s Article 4 consultation process. In the Indo-Pacific, U.S. President Donald Trump demanded that the EU pressure Russia by imposing tariffs on China and India. Meanwhile, the U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement agency apprehended 300 South Korean workers in Georgia, most of whom have since left the United States. In the U.S., conservative media personality and Trump ally Charlie Kirk was shot and killed at an event in Utah.
Weekly Forecast Monitor: Sept. 12, 2025
The Geopolitical Hotspots Monitor examines the outlook for key geopolitical hotspots around the world.
1 Russia/Ukraine Conflict
Summary
The Russia/Ukraine war trended toward military escalation as Polish air defense forces, with assistance from Dutch and Italian aircraft, shot down Russian drones that crossed into Poland’s airspace from Ukraine. Following the incident, Polish President Donald Tusk triggered NATO’s Article 4, which calls for emergency consultations with allies. Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski said the incursion into Poland’s airspace was intentional. The EU is front-loading $7 billion into Ukraine’s domestic drone production industry, as part of a drone production alliance with Ukraine. The U.S. House passed a $890 billion defense bill including $400 million in security assistance to Ukraine, sending it to the Senate. Russia conducted its largest overnight attack against Ukrainian cities since the start of the 2022 invasion, launching at least 810 drones at Ukrainian cities on Sept. 6.
2 Middle East
Summary
The Middle East trended toward military escalation as an Israeli air attack in Qatar targeted members of the Hamas leadership. Hamas senior leadership survived, although the militant group reported the deaths of at least five of its members. Qatari Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani said the attack, ordered by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, “killed” any hope of securing a hostage release deal in Gaza. Qatar will host an emergency Arab-Islamic summit Sept. 14-15 to discuss the Israeli attack and possible collective response options. On Sept. 9, Israel carried out airstrikes against Syrian army positions in the cities of Homs, Latakia, and Palmyra. The Israel Defense Forces announced it would intensify its bombardment of Gaza City as Israeli ground forces prepare to seize and occupy the urban center.
3 U.S./China/Indo-Pacific
Summary
The Indo-Pacific trended toward hybrid escalation, with Trump demanding that the EU impose 100% tariffs on China and India as a means of increasing pressure on Russia, though Brussels has already pushed back on the demand. A U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement raid resulted in the arrests of over 300 Korean workers helping build a battery plant in Georgia, with Korean government officials saying that the incident could deter Korean investment in the United States. China has reduced its imports of U.S. soybeans as amid ongoing trade talks. The U.S. Department of Commerce proposed that tech exports to China be subject to annual renewal replacing the current policy granting indefinite authorizations. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced he will meet with Chinese Premier Li Feng next week to discuss issues related to trade and national security. The U.S. Army deployed its midrange Typhon missile system to Japan as part of the upcoming two-week joint “Resolute Dragon” exercises.
4 Other Hotspots
United States
Charlie Kirk, founder of the conservative media outlet Turning Point USA, died after being shot at a speaking event at Utah Valley University. Authorities continued their search for the person or persons responsible. Forecast – political destabilization scenario
Nepal
Protests against a government ban on certain social media platforms turned violent as clashes with police resulted in 20 deaths. The country’s prime minister resigned, and the army patrolled the streets of Kathmandu after government buildings were set ablaze. Forecast – political destabilization scenario
France
Protesters took to the streets to demonstrate against planned budget cuts. This followed a vote of no confidence against Prime Minister François Bayrou, who was replaced by former Defense Minister Sébastien Lecornu. Forecast – political destabilization scenario
5 Global Connectivity
The Global Connectivity Tracker examines the impact of geopolitical dynamics on key themes like trade, technology, and energy/climate.
Russia/Ukraine/Oil
A Ukrainian drone attack damaged and set ablaze the Bryansk-based Druzhba pipeline that supplies Hungary and Slovakia with Russian oil. Forecast – Energy Disruption Scenario: Continuous Ukrainian drone attacks on Russian energy infrastructure such as oil pipelines may cause temporary disruption and halt energy deliveries to markets relying on Russian imports. Attacks on Russian oil facilities could reduce supply, potentially raising oil prices.
Italy/Climate
A report from energy companies Edison and TEHA Group indicates that delays in developing renewable power generation and energy storage technology projects could prevent Italy from fulfilling 2030 EU decarbonization targets. The Italian clean energy transition projects may take 10 years longer than planned due to a complex mix of factors including a lengthy and complex permitting process and grid infrastructure limitations. Energy/Climate Disruption Scenario: The risk of missing EU climate goals, prolonged fossil fuel dependance, increased energy price volatility, and an unstable investment environment risk damaging investor confidence.
Russia/China/Energy
China is preparing to allow Russian energy giants Gazprom and Rosatom access to its bond market, a move that would help the companies raise capital denominated in renminbi as an alternative to Western markets, where they are barred by sanctions over the war in Ukraine. Until recently, Chinese banks had been wary of backing investment in Russian firms for fear of exposure to secondary U.S. sanctions. But the so-called “panda” bond sales could allow the natural gas and nuclear energy conglomerates to circumvent those restrictions and deepen strategic ties between the countries. Forecast – Economic/energy enhancement scenarios: Increasing cooperation between Russia and China in the energy and finance sectors will enable both countries to more effectively blunt the effects of Western sanctions.
Japan/United States/Nuclear
U.S. investment firm Elliott Investment Management has acquired a 4% to 5% stake in Kansai Electric Power, Japan’s second-largest electric utility and leading nuclear power operator. Elliott is pushing Kansai to sell over $13.5 billion in non-core assets, including real estate and a construction firm, to return money to shareholders through share buybacks and dividend increases. Its demands reflect growing investor pressure on Japanese firms to unlock value from underused assets and aligns with Tokyo’s broader corporate governance reforms. Kansai’s shares surged nearly 10% following news of Elliott’s stake, reflecting investor optimism. However, political and regulatory sensitivities around nuclear energy could complicate its reform efforts. Forecast – Energy Enhancement Scenario: If successful, Elliott’s campaign could lead to wider changes across the Japanese utility sector, pushing companies to use capital more efficiently.