This week, China hosted the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation security forum, attended by 20 foreign leaders including Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. Meanwhile, French President Emmanuel Macron hosted Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and representatives of Ukraine’s allies in a new round of discussions on Ukrainian security guarantees, while U.S. President Donald Trump renewed threats of sanctions against Russia. In the Middle East, Israel’s campaign against Gaza City intensified while its Cabinet convened to discuss a proposal to further annex West Bank territory. In the Caribbean Sea, the U.S. launched a military strike against a vessel linked to drug smugglers who the Trump administration claims are operating under Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro’s orders.
Weekly Forecast Monitor: Sept. 5, 2025
The Geopolitical Hotspots Monitor examines the outlook for key geopolitical hotspots around the world.
1 Russia/Ukraine Conflict
Summary
The Russia/Ukraine war trended toward diplomatic de-escalation as Macron hosted Zelenskyy, U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer, and U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff, along with representatives from 35 other countries, to discuss security guarantees for Ukraine in a postwar scenario. Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova reiterated that Russia was completely opposed to the presence of foreign troops in Ukraine. Zelenskyy pressed allies to help increase Ukraine’s air defense capabilities in the face of intensified Russian attacks against Ukrainian cities. Meanwhile, Trump renewed threats of increased sanctions against Russia, as his self-imposed two-week timeline for Putin to make progress toward a Ukraine peace deal expired Thursday. Trump said he was willing to increase the number of U.S. troops stationed in Poland during a meeting with Polish President Karol Nawrocki. A flight transporting European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen was subject to GPS jamming while in Bulgarian airspace; EU officials have attributed the attack to Russia.
2 Middle East
Summary
The Middle East trended toward military escalation as the Israel Defense Forces moved farther into Gaza City and intensified bombardment of the urban area. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu rejected an offer from Hamas to release all hostages if Israel were to end the war and fully withdraw from Gaza. Netanyahu convened a Cabinet meeting Thursday to conduct a “situation assessment” of the West Bank, following the Wednesday reveal of Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich’s proposal to annex 82% of West Bank territory. UAE envoy Lana Nusseibeh said that annexation would be a “red line” that would end regional efforts toward normalization with Israel. Netanyahu pledged to continue an assassination campaign against al-Houthi rebel leadership in Yemen following an Israeli airstrike on Saturday that killed several Houthi ministers, including Prime Minister Ahmad Ghaleb al-Rahwi. In response, the Houthis fired three missiles at Israel that were intercepted by the IDF and attacked an Israeli-owned ship in the Red Sea.
3 U.S./China/Indo-Pacific
Summary
The Indo-Pacific trended toward diplomatic de-escalation this week, as Chinese President Xi Jinping hosted the annual Shanghai Cooperation Organisation security forum, which saw the attendance of 20 world leaders, including Putin, Kim, and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Beijing held a massive Victory Day military parade showcasing new advanced weapons systems. Trump signed an executive order cutting tariffs on Japanese car imports from 27.5% to 15% as part of an agreement announced in July. The U.S. revoked the Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company’s ability to export semiconductor equipment to its China-based plant without U.S. export licenses. Japan announced it would allow the U.S. to deploy Typhon intermediate-range missiles to its territory next month, drawing condemnation from China and Russia. In Indonesia, anti-government protests turned violent following clashes with the police, which resulted in at least seven dead, thousands injured, and government buildings set ablaze.
4 Other Hotspots
United States/Venezuela
The U.S. conducted a military strike against what it identified as a drug-smuggling vessel in the Caribbean, in a first reported use of military force against “narcoterrorist” groups that the Trump administration claims are operating at Maduro’s behest. Forecast – military escalation scenario
United States
The U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit ruled that the Trump administration’s imposition of tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act did not fall under the president’s mandate, potentially overturning the administration’s trade policy. The White House has appealed the ruling to the Supreme Court. Forecast – political destabilization scenario
5 Global Connectivity
The Global Connectivity Tracker examines the impact of geopolitical dynamics on key themes like trade, technology, and energy/climate.
Russia/Ukraine/Electricity
Intensified Russian drone attacks on Ukrainian energy infrastructure left about 60,000 Ukrainians without power and prompted Zelenskyy to promise retaliation with strikes inside Russia. Russia has been attacking power distribution substations and transmission cables, aiming to disrupt Ukraine’s electricity flow and weaken its economic and defense capabilities. Forecast – Energy disruption scenario: Damage to Ukraine’s energy infrastructure will make it more vulnerable to the winter season, when power demand will be high.
Saudi Arabia/China/Green Energy
Saudi power provider ACWA Power has partnered with Chinese engineering firm Sinopec to build the largest green hydrogen and ammonia project in the world. The ACWA Power integrated green hydrogen and ammonia project is set to be completed in 2030 in Yanbu city. The companies say that upon completion, the plant will produce 5 gigawatts (GW) of solar power and 5 GW of wind power. It is also set to produce 400,000 metric tons of green hydrogen yearly with a 4.4 GW electrolysis capacity, which will then be converted into 2.5-2.8 million metric tons of green ammonia for global export. Forecast – Energy enhancement scenario: This initiative supports Saudi Arabia’s aims to become a leading renewable fuel exporter and energy transition actor.
Syria/Oil
Syria has exported its first oil cargo since 2010, a significant step forward for the country and its economy. Earlier this week, the tanker Nissos Christina departed from the port of Tartus with 600,000 barrels of oil. The country averaged about 380,000 barrels per day of oil exports before its civil war erupted, accounting for about 20% of its pre-war GDP. Reviving the Syrian oil sector would mark a significant step in revitalizing its postwar economy. Forecast – Energy enhancement scenario; economic enhancement scenario: The resumption of oil exports will boost Syria’s efforts to rebuild its economy and could attract further foreign investment in improving its export infrastructure.
Global/Electricity
Global demand for electricity continues to expand despite signs of an economic slowdown, according to projections by the International Energy Agency. The group’s midyear report showed that although the rate of growth slowed slightly from its forecast from January, electricity demand for 2025 should rise by 3.3% year over year, with another 3.7% rise in 2026. It cited increasing use of air conditioning and electric vehicles and the surge in data center development as chief drivers of expanding demand. Forecast – Energy enhancement scenario: Despite signs of a global economic slowdown, the increasing demands on global electricity supplies will continue to support the development of power plants and other infrastructure.