This week in the Middle East, France, Germany, and the U.K. triggered a mechanism to reimpose sanctions against Iran following Tehran’s noncompliance with nuclear inspections, while Israel intensified shelling in Gaza City ahead of its anticipated occupation. In the Indo-Pacific, U.S. President Donald Trump played host to his South Korean counterpart at the White House, while Seoul called for strengthening ties with China. In Ukraine, Russian forces pushed farther into Ukrainian territory and continued their bombing campaign as the U.S. weighed security guarantees for Ukraine. U.S. tariffs of 50% on Indian imports went into effect, while Mexico announced plans to raise tariffs on China.
Weekly Forecast Monitor: Aug. 29, 2025
The Geopolitical Hotspots Monitor examines the outlook for key geopolitical hotspots around the world.
1 Russia/Ukraine Conflict
Summary
The Russia/Ukraine war trended toward military escalation as Russian forces advanced in Ukraine’s Dnipropetrovsk region while Ukrainian defense officials reported the recapture of three villages from Russian occupation in Donetsk. Russia continued its bombardment of Ukrainian cities, including overnight attacks against Kyiv on Aug. 28 that killed at least 23 people. The U.S. State Department approved an $825 million sale of extended-range missiles to Ukraine. Russia conducted a large-scale drone attack against energy infrastructure across six regions of Ukraine, while a Ukrainian sabotage operation targeted an oil pipeline that supplies Moscow. Trump, who downplayed expectations of an imminent meeting between Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and Russian President Vladimir Putin, threatened “economic war” against Russia. U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff said he will meet with Ukrainian officials this week in New York to advance discussions on a bilateral meeting between Ukraine and Russia.
2 Middle East
Summary
The Middle East trended toward hybrid escalation as France, Germany, and the U.K. have initiated the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action’s “snapback” mechanism, which would reimpose wide-scale sanctions against Iran. Meanwhile, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei described tensions with the U.S. over Iran’s nuclear program as “unsolvable.” Israel intensified shelling of Gaza City in preparation for its planned occupation. An Israeli ground raid in Ramallah wounded dozens of Palestinians. Airstrikes by the Israel Defense Forces in Syria killed at least six Syrian soldiers, Additionally, the IDF expanded its territorial occupation in Syria near Mount Hermon in the Golan Heights and carried out a ground raid southwest of Damascus. The Lebanese government is expected to present a plan to disarm Hezbollah and end the Israeli occupation of Lebanese territory on Aug. 31.
3 U.S./China/Indo-Pacific
Summary
The Indo-Pacific trended toward diplomatic de-escalation as Trump hosted South Korean President Lee Jae Myung at the White House and expressed interest in meeting with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un to revive nuclear diplomacy. At the same time, North Korea test-fired newly developed attack drone and cruise missiles as U.S. and South Korean forces conducted annual military drills. Senior Chinese trade negotiator Li Chenggang will visit Washington this week to meet U.S. officials as both countries seek to advance trade negotiations, while a South Korean envoy told Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi that Seoul hopes to normalize strained ties with Beijing and strengthen economic cooperation. Mexico reportedly plans to increase tariffs against China in its upcoming budget.
4 Other Hotspots
United States/India
The U.S. formally increased tariffs on Indian imports to 50% in response to India’s continued imports of Russian oil and weaponry. India is now subject to one of the highest tariff rates among all U.S. trading partners. Forecast – hybrid escalation scenario
United States/Greenland/Denmark
Denmark summoned ranking U.S. diplomat Mark Stroh to respond to reports of American citizens conducting influence operations in Greenland. Following this meeting, the State Department issued a statement that the U.S. “respects the right of the people of Greenland to determine their own future.” Forecast – hybrid escalation scenario
5 Global Connectivity
The Global Connectivity Tracker examines the impact of geopolitical dynamics on key themes like trade, technology, and energy/climate.
Taiwan/Nuclear Energy
A public referendum to restart the Maanshan nuclear power plant failed to meet Taiwan’s legal threshold for approval, despite support from a majority of voters who cast ballots. Concerns over energy reliability and security had led opposition parties Kuomintang and the Taiwan People’s Party) to back reopening the plant, which had been Taiwan’s last operational nuclear power source before it was shut down, but it will remain shut. President Lai Ching-te said the country’s use of nuclear energy could be reconsidered if safety and waste disposal issues improve. Forecast – Energy Disruption Scenario: Reliance on liquefied natural gas and renewables leaves Taiwan exposed to energy import costs and market volatility.
Brazil/Electricity
Brazil will launch two bidding rounds in 2026 for hydro and thermal fossil-fuel plants to supply electric generation capacity, Reuters reported. The first auction, planned by March 2026, comes after legal disputes led to the suspension of a previous round. Eligible plants include coal-, oil-, and natural gas-fired units, with Petrobras, Ambar Energia, and Eneva expected to bid. Forecast – Energy Enhancement Scenario: While reinforcing fossil-fuel reliance, capacity auctions are designed to stabilize supply and reduce blackout risks, balancing Brazil’s green transition with energy security.
Ukraine/Russia/Nuclear/Oil
Ukrainian drones attacked Russian energy infrastructure, reducing the power generation capacity of one of Russia’s largest nuclear power plants and triggering a major fire in fuel export terminal according to Russian officials. The drones attacked the Kursk nuclear power plant near the Ukraine border, reducing production capacity by half but causing no detectable radiation leaks. The targeted fuel export terminal is one of the largest in Russia and is used for shipping oil products to major markets in Asia. Forecast – Energy Disruption Scenario: These attacks may disrupt shipments of jet fuel to Türkiye, and light and heavy naphtha to China, Singapore, Taiwan, and Malaysia.
Malaysia/Solar Energy/Technology
A solar photovoltaic (PV) plant with a capacity of 1.5 gigawatts is set to be built in Malaysia in 2027 to help meet the high power demands of hyperscale data centers, according to Malaysian engineering/construction and energy provider companies Gamuda and Gentari. The project would boost the renewable power generation capacity in Malaysia and help the country meet its target of installing 40% renewable energy capacity in the electricity mix by 2035 and having renewables supply 17% of its electricity by 2040. Forecast – Clean Energy Enhancement Scenario: The project is expected to supply reliable and low-carbon electricity to help power hyperscale data centers. The expansion and enhancement of renewable power will contribute to capacity Malasia expects to need to meet the high demand created by AI, cloud computing, and other digital applications.