This week, the U.S. Court of International Trade ruled that there was no legal basis under the International Economic Emergency Powers Act for U.S. President Donald Trump to impose global tariffs, complicating U.S. trade negotiations. In the Indo-Pacific, Secretary of State Marco Rubio announced the U.S. would begin revoking Chinese student visas, while Trump ordered the suspension of exports of jet engines and software for chip design to China. In the Russia/Ukraine conflict, Russia prepared for an offensive in Sumy, while Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov proposed a meeting between Russian and Ukrainian officials on June 2. In the Middle East, efforts at another Gaza ceasefire stalled, while the U.S. and Iran continued their negotiations over Iran’s nuclear enrichment program.
Weekly Forecast Monitor: May 30, 2025
The Geopolitical Hotspots Monitor examines the outlook for key geopolitical hotspots around the world.
1 Russia/Ukraine Conflict
Summary
The Russia/Ukraine war trended toward military escalation as Russia increased the intensity of its combined missile and drone bombardments of Ukrainian cities. Trump issued a rare public rebuke of Russian President Vladimir Putin, calling his actions “absolutely crazy” and accusing him of “needless killing.” Trump set a two-week deadline for Putin to make progress on a peace deal or face likely sanctions. Russian forces captured population centers in Ukraine’s Sumy oblast and massed 50,000 soldiers for a possible large-scale offensive there. Meanwhile, Lavrov spoke with Rubio and proposed another direct meeting between Russian and Ukrainian officials in Istanbul on June 2. German Chancellor Friederich Merz pledged that Germany will aid Ukraine in the development of long-range missiles, and the U.K. signed an agreement with Ukraine to utilize $3 billion in frozen Russian assets to fund Ukrainian defense efforts.
2 Middle East
Summary
The Middle East trended toward diplomatic de-escalation as the U.S. and Iran continued negotiations over Iran’s nuclear enrichment program, with Tehran offering the possibility of U.S. officials joining future International Atomic Energy Agency inspection teams. A new report revealed that Saudi Defense Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman had met with Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in April in Tehran, urging him to take nuclear negotiations with the U.S. seriously to avoid war with Israel. Syrian and Israeli officials held direct deconfliction talks within Israeli-occupied Syrian territory, and U.S. Ambassador to Türkiye and Special Envoy to Syria Thomas Barrack visited Damascus. Trump said he wants the war in Gaza to end “as quickly as possible,” as renewed ceasefire and hostage release talks led by U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff failed to reach a deal. German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul threatened to cut off arms shipments to Israel, citing humanitarian concerns. Meanwhile, Israel announced the construction of new settlements in the West Bank and continued its ground campaign aimed at the permanent occupation of Gaza and displacement of its population, killing dozens of Palestinians.
3 U.S./China/Indo-Pacific
Summary
The Indo-Pacific trended toward hybrid escalation as the Trump administration halted exports of microchip design software and jet engines to China. The U.S. Court of International Trade ruled that Trump’s imposition of reciprocal tariffs under the emergency powers act was illegal and gave the administration 10 days to resolve the issue, potentially complicating its negotiations with China. Rubio announced the administration would “aggressively revoke” the visas of Chinese students in the U.S. The Czech government attributed cyberattacks targeting its critical infrastructure since 2022 to a Chinese state-linked group. Malaysia hosted a trilateral summit during which the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, China, and the Gulf Cooperation Council agreed to bolster economic cooperation. French President Emmanuel Macron signed a number of defense and trade deals with Vietnam and Indonesia.
4 Other Hotspots
United States/European Union
Prior to the U.S. court ruling on tariffs, Trump announced the suspension of planned 50% tariffs on EU imports following a phone call with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. The bloc has until July 9 to negotiate a trade deal. Forecast – diplomatic de-escalation scenario
United States
Elon Musk announced he is formally ending his tenure within the Trump administration to spend more time managing his companies, following weeks of disagreements and frustrations with the administration over domestic policies. Forecast – political stabilization scenario
Greenland
Greenland’s minister for business and mineral resources urged European and U.S. mining companies to invest in Greenland and develop and diversify the business sectors, warning that the country will also seek investment from China if no deal can be struck. Forecast – diplomatic de-escalation scenario
The Global Connectivity Tracker examines the impact of geopolitical dynamics on key themes like trade, technology, and energy/climate.
United States
Nuclear Energy
What Happened
The Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA), the largest public power company in the United States, applied to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) for a permit to build a 300-megawatt reactor that would become operational in 2032. The application was the first by a U.S. utility seeking to build a small modular reactor.
Significance/Outlook
The TVA, which supplies electricity to 10 million customers in seven states, expects demand on its system to reach 26 gigawatts by 2035 as population in its area grows and more industries switch from fossil fuels for electricity. Its CEO, Don Moul, said the company decided to be the first to seek to build an advanced reactor to serve as a model for other U.S. utilities. It made the application just days before U.S. President Donald Trump signed executive orders meant to accelerate nuclear power development by speeding approval of some reactor construction projects and mandating an 18-month deadline for NRC review.
United States/Guyana
Oil
The dispute creates legal uncertainty around Chevron’s acquisition, delaying its entry into the Stabroek Block and complicating its broader upstream expansion plans. It further raises concerns about the stability of joint venture operations in Guyana, a region of growing significance in the global oil landscape.
What Happened
U.S. energy giants ExxonMobil and Chevron are locked in a legal dispute over Chevron’s planned $53 billion acquisition of Hess Corporation, specifically over Hess’s 30% stake in the Stabroek Block, a major offshore oil project in Guyana.
Significance/Outlook
Exxon, which considers the project a core asset, argues it has contractual rights to preempt any stake sale under the terms of a joint operating agreement (JOA) it shares with Hess and CNOOC, the Chinese state-owned oil firm that supports Exxon’s interpretation. Chevron, however, contends that the JOA does not apply to full corporate acquisitions and argues the Hess deal should proceed unimpeded. Arbitration proceedings are set to begin June 2 in London, and a ruling in Exxon’s favor could derail Chevron’s biggest-ever deal, stalling its production portfolio and weakening its position relative to Exxon. The results of the arbitration could significantly affect global energy geopolitics and reshape how U.S. oil majors compete for emerging, high-value reserves. Even if Chevron succeeds in acquiring Hess, the legal dispute has exposed deepening strategic tensions between the two companies, especially as they compete for increasingly scarce, low-cost global oil assets.
United Kingdom
Climate
What Happened
U.K. energy company SSE has announced plans to reduce funding for new renewable energy projects.
Significance/Outlook
SSE cut its five-year investment plan by $4 billion to $23.3 billion due to policy and planning delays. Projects involving hydropower and offshore wind turbines face a $2 billion reduction, and an additional $2 billion will be eliminated from projects involving thermal power and electricity transmission. This move will affect the U.K.’s renewable energy targets for 2030, in which government seeks to double onshore wind power availability, triple solar power, and quadruple offshore wind capacity to build a 95% fossil fuel-free power system.
Türkiye/Syria
Natural Gas
What Happened
Türkiye has signed an energy cooperation agreement with Syria to supply 2 billion cubic meters of natural gas annually, with flows expected to begin in June.
Significance/Outlook
Syria will use the gas to supply power plants to generate up to 1,300 megawatts (MW) of electricity. In a parallel arrangement, Türkiye will also export 500 MW of electricity directly to Syria by the end of 2025 via a new 400-kilovolt cross-border transmission line. The agreement also includes the reactivation of a dormant gas pipeline and opens the door for Turkish investment in Syria’s energy and mining sectors. For Syria, the imports could help alleviate chronic power shortages, which is one of the country’s most pressing obstacles to economic recovery and reconstruction. For Türkiye, it enhances its strategic economic and political influence in a country in which it previously backed opposition forces. The agreement also includes short-term electricity relief and forward-looking cooperation on energy exploration, suggesting Türkiye’s deeper strategic interest in Syrian resource development. If fully implemented, the deal could lay early groundwork for broader normalization and economic integration, though its long-term success depends on political stability and security on both sides of the border.
Global
Critical Minerals
China's monopoly of the renewable energy technology mineral supply chain creates a serious risk. Given China’s concentrated supply dominance, its export restrictions can cause painful disruptions. Chinese control over most refining and processing capacity renders the worldwide supply of essential minerals vulnerable to geopolitical conflicts and export restrictions that could slow the energy transition. The IEA noted that 55% of the minerals it analyzed are subject to some export controls.
What Happened
An International Energy Agency analysis found that China is the largest refiner of 19 out of 20 critical minerals crucial to global energy transition efforts.
Significance/Outlook
Despite Western countries’ attempts to reduce their reliance on China for energy transition-critical metals, Chinese producers of copper, lithium, and cobalt, and Indonesian nickel producers have strengthened their market dominance of those critical minerals. Chinese companies also control most critical mineral supply chains, from mining to metal processing to the fabrication of batteries and magnets for electric vehicles and other industrial components. China holds a 70% market share of refining and processing of the IEA-analyzed minerals.