This week, the U.S. agreed to a resumption of Ukrainian military and intelligence aid as a 30-day cease-fire was discussed with Ukraine and Russia. In the Indo-Pacific, China’s retaliatory tariffs against the U.S. went into effect, and the Taiwanese government announced a series of measures designed to curb Chinese espionage and influence operations. In the Middle East, the U.S. pushed for an extension of Phase I negotiations between Israel and Gaza, while Israeli and Lebanese officials began discussions over the normalization of bilateral relations. In global trade, the U.S. imposed 25% tariffs on global steel and aluminum imports, prompting strong reactions and announcements of retaliation from Canada and the EU.
Weekly Forecast Monitor: March 14, 2025
The Geopolitical Hotspots Monitor examines the outlook for key geopolitical hotspots around the world.
1 Russia/Ukraine Conflict
Summary
The Russia/Ukraine war trended toward diplomatic de-escalation and military escalation scenarios as Ukraine and the U.S. agreed to a temporary cease-fire proposal after discussions hosted in Jeddah, where Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy met with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in separate talks. In Moscow, U.S. Special Envoy to the Middle East Steve Witkoff presented the deal to Russian President Vladimir Putin, who expressed openness to a temporary cease-fire, but not without certain conditions, including limits on military aid to Kyiv and the surrender of Ukrainian troops in Kursk. U.S. President Donald Trump ordered the resumption of military aid and intelligence sharing with Ukraine and said that the success of the proposed cease-fire deal was, “up to Russia now.” Meanwhile, Ukraine conducted its largest drone attack against Russian territory since the beginning of Russia’s full-scale invasion, and Russian Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov claimed Russian forces have recaptured 86% of Ukrainian-held territory in Kursk. Putin and Gerasimov visited Russian troops in the region and said Ukrainian prisoners of war captured in Kursk would be charged as terrorists.
2 Middle East
Summary
Conflict in the Middle East trended toward diplomatic de-escalation and military escalation scenarios as Witkoff arrived in Doha to push for a two-month extension to Phase I of the Gaza cease-fire, and Hamas agreed to release Edan Alexander, a dual U.S.-Israeli citizen, as well as the remains of four other hostages who also had dual citizenship. U.S. and Israeli officials spoke with their counterparts from Sudan, Somalia, and Somaliland about the potential resettlement of Palestinians who would be permanently displaced from Gaza under Trump’s proposed postwar policy. Israeli and Lebanese officials began talks over normalization of their countries’ relations. Meanwhile, Syrian President Ahmed al-Shaara and Syrian Democratic Forces commander Mazloum Abdi signed a deal to integrate SDF-controlled territory and security forces into the new Syrian government. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baqaei confirmed that a letter written last week by Trump to Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei was delivered by UAE officials. Upwards of 1,000 Alawite civilians were killed in Syria as government security forces fought militants loyal to the toppled Assad regime.
3 U.S./China/Indo-Pacific
Summary
Tensions in the Indo-Pacific trended toward hybrid escalation, as China’s retaliatory tariffs against the U.S. went into effect, and Beijing announced new tariffs against Canada in response to tariffs it levied in October. The Taiwanese government announced a series of measures aimed at curbing Chinese espionage and influence operations, including limiting cross-strait trade and punitive measures for turned service members. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company proposed a joint venture with three U.S. microchip companies. China hosted officials from Russia and Iran to discuss key questions surrounding Tehran’s nuclear program, which received statements of support from Moscow and Beijing.
4 Other Hotspots
United States/EU/Canada
Following the imposition of a 25% tariff on all steel and aluminum imports to the United States, the European Commission announced it would impose tariffs in April on $28 billion of U.S. goods. Canada, likewise, responded to the U.S. tariffs with announced levies on a like amount of U.S. imports. The EU stressed it remains open to negotiations in the following weeks, during which time it will assess which specific products to apply these tariffs to. Forecast – hybrid escalation scenario
Philippines
Philippine authorities arrested former President Rodrigo Duterte in line with a warrant from the International Criminal Court which charged him with crimes against humanity during his time in office. Duterte, who was taken to The Hague, will however still be allowed to run for office, causing political shockwaves ahead of the country’s general election in May. Forecast – political destabilization scenario
Armenia/Azerbaijan
Armenian and Azerbaijani negotiators have confirmed that the two countries have reached peace deal. Details of the pact and a signing date have not been made public. Forecast – diplomatic de-escalation scenario
The Global Connectivity Tracker examines the impact of geopolitical dynamics on key themes like trade, technology, and energy/climate.
1
United Kingdom
Oil and Gas
What Happened
The British government will not renew the North Sea windfall tax on oil and gas companies beyond 2030.
Significance/Outlook
While the Labour Party-led government is committed to reducing fossil fuel reliance to meet climate goals, it also wants to ensure domestic energy security. While upholding its pledge to halt new oil and gas exploration, it is permitting tiebacks to sustain production, allowing resource development without issuing new exploration or production licenses. The U.K. Treasury acknowledged that frequent changes to the oil and gas fiscal regime have created uncertainty for investors, emphasizing the need for a stable framework. Accordingly, the government sees phasing out the windfall tax after 2030 as a step toward enhancing industry stability and attracting long-term investment. Industry leaders have welcomed these measures, viewing them as pragmatic responses to economic and geopolitical realities.
2
Azerbaijan/Türkiye
Natural Gas
A stable gas supply will support industrial and infrastructure growth while improving residential energy access. Additionally, sourcing gas directly from Türkiye will likely be more cost-effective than previous arrangements, eliminating transit fees previously paid to Iran and enhancing Nakhchivan’s long-term energy security and economic stability.
What Happened
Türkiye and Azerbaijan have inaugurated the Iğdır-Nakhchivan gas pipeline, a 160-kilometer project developed by state-owned energy companies BOTAŞ and SOCAR to supply Turkish natural gas to the autonomous Azerbaijani republic of Nakhchivan.
Significance/Outlook
The pipeline will initially transport approximately up to 2 million cubic meters of natural gas daily and 500 mcm annually. Turkish Energy Minister Alparslan Bayraktar said the project will be capable of supplying the natural gas needs of Nakhchivan’s population for 30 years, ensuring the long-term energy security of the exclave. Nakhchivan has historically relied on Iranian energy supplies through a swap agreement with Azerbaijan, making this pipeline a strategic shift in its energy dependence. By providing a direct supply route from Türkiye, the project reshapes the regional energy landscape and diminishes Iran’s influence while integrating Nakhchivan into Azerbaijan and Turkey’s broader energy network.
3
Iraq/Iran
Electricity
What Happened
The United States has allowed a waiver on sanctions that allowed Iraq to directly import electricity from Iran to expire, leaving Baghdad to seek alternate sources of power.
Significance/Outlook
Before the cutoff, Iran supplied about 1.5 gigawatts (GW) of electricity to Iraq through direct interconnections between the countries, about 4 percent of Iraqi consumption. That marked a significant decrease from the approximately 10 GW of Iranian power sent to Iraq previously. Iraq is capable of generating about 28 GW of power, but much of that is powered by pipeline natural gas supplied from Iran. Should the White House decide to curtail Iranian natural gas supplies to Iraq under its “maximum pressure” campaign against the Islamic Republic, Iraqi electricity supplies could be affected. Iraq has begun to look elsewhere for possible gas suppliers, considering possible deals with Oman and Qatar.
4
India
Renewable Energy
The Indian renewable energy sector is growing, but project execution faces challenges such as securing adequate and stable financing, delays in obtaining necessary permits, land aggregation and acquisition, and technical issues such as grid stability. The weak tender demand, the high cancellation rates, and the project execution and financing challenges may slow future renewable energy expansion plans.
What Happened
The Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis has reported that weak tender demand, power agreement delays, and project cancellations are affecting India’s renewable energy market.
Significance/Outlook
India plans to install 500 gigawatts (GW) of renewable power capacity by 2030. To achieve that goal, it will need to increase its solar and wind power capacity by 246 GW, or almost 41 GW annually, between 2025 and 2030. Renewable energy project cancellations, delays in power agreements, and undersubscription (awarded capacity is less than tendered) will all hamper India’s renewable energy business. In 2024, India set a record for utility-scale renewable energy tenders with 73 GW of capacity, although around 8.5 GW of the capacity was undersubscribed. This will dampen investment flow and investor interest in initiatives involving renewable energy. This will set back India’s efforts to meet its short- and long-term renewable energy and greenhouse gas emissions targets as well as the international efforts to mitigate climate change.
5
China
Nuclear Technology
Nuclear technology is characterized by high-tech nature, high-efficiency operations, and high-quality output. China’s emphasis on expanding its use could lead to groundbreaking platforms, new company launches, and advancements in innovative technologies. It also has the capability of improving China’s economy and job market.
What Happened
Li Song, China’s permanent representative to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reported that China has set an ambitious target for the expansion of commercial uses of nuclear technology across a range of industries.
Significance/Outlook
If its ambitions are realized, the expansion nuclear technology applications will boost several sectors of China’s national economy, including the fields of medical treatment, agriculture, food processing, and material modification and analysis. These applications are expected to help stimulate economic growth. The central government projects that this expansion will contribute to a 67% growth in revenue as compared with 2023. By 2026, the nuclear technology application business in China is aiming to produce $55.7 billion in direct annual economic output. Capacity remains for China’s nuclear technology industry to rapidly expand with further development of innovative capabilities expected.