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Geopolitical Forecasting & Risk Management Platform

New Lines Institute has partnered with AI start-up Mantis Analytics to launch an AI-powered platform to forecast geopolitical trends and simulate their impacts. The platform, and suite of accompanying services, is designed for stakeholders across industries, governments, universities and civil society who seek to mitigate risk and make decisions amid political, economic and security uncertainty. It demonstrates how geopolitical shocks may cascade and offers a structured environment for testing resilience and readiness of policy and business plans.

The New Lines Geopolitical Forecasting and Advisory Unit (GFAU) also produces a set of forecast publications related to geopolitical hotspots around the world and their global connectivity implications. These publications include a Weekly Forecast Monitor, the Global Hotspots podcast, and Quarterly and Annual Forecast Reports. To learn more about forecast reports and analytical products from New Lines Institute — including briefings, simulations, and training sessions — contact us at [email protected] or register below.

Latest Analyses

2025 Fourth Quarter Forecast Report

The fourth quarter of 2025 will be headlined by the potential for military escalation in the Middle East, hybrid escalation…

Global Hotspots: U.S. Launches New Peace Proposal for Israel-Gaza War

This week, Israel accepted a U.S. proposal to end the war in Gaza that has received support from Qatar and Egypt, while U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order providing safety guarantees to Qatar. In the Russia/Ukraine conflict, Trump is considering providing Ukraine with Tomahawk cruise missiles and targeting intelligence, and G7 countries pledged to coordinate measures against nations importing Russian oil. In the Indo-Pacific, documents revealed that Russia was aiding China in its planning of airborne operations, while the U.S. indicated it was not making efforts to lower tariffs against China. In the U.S., a government shutdown began following deadlocked talks between Republicans and Democrats.

Weekly Forecast Monitor: Oct. 3, 2025

This week, Israel accepted a U.S. proposal to end the war in Gaza that has received support from Qatar and…

Global Hotspots: Q4 Forecast Outlook

The fourth quarter of 2025 will be headlined by the potential for military escalation in the Middle East, including increased Israeli operations in Gaza and the expansion of Israel’s targeting of Iran-aligned groups throughout the region. In the Russia/Ukraine conflict, the fourth quarter will be marked by hybrid escalation in the form of additional Western tariffs and sanctions against Russia as the diplomatic track to reach an end to the conflict will continue to prove elusive. In the Indo-Pacific, the fourth quarter will see diplomatic de-escalation as the U.S. and China make further progress toward a trade agreement that lowers tariffs. In global connectivity themes, there will be slight enhancements in trade in the fourth quarter as the White House’s tariffs and technology restrictions rebalance and broadly settle into a new normal, while AI-driven boosts in power consumption and climate-related threats raise the risk of energy disruption.

Global Hotspots: Israel Faces Diplomatic Fallout Amid Gaza City Offensive

https://soundcloud.com/newlinesinstitute/global-hotspots-israel-faces-diplomatic-fallout-amid-gaza-city-offensive/s-d4MpKGmwa7B?si=82fbaf5d6df6462c90f36594cb6576af&utm_source=clipboard&utm_medium=text&utm_campaign=social_sharing This week, Israel initiated its full ground invasion of Gaza City, while the United Arab Emirates and other Arab…

Weekly Forecast Monitor: Sept. 19, 2025

This week, Israel initiated its full ground invasion of Gaza City, while the United Arab Emirates and other Arab states…