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Geopolitical Forecasting & Risk Management Platform

New Lines Institute has partnered with AI start-up Mantis Analytics to launch an AI-powered platform to forecast geopolitical trends and simulate their impacts. The platform, and suite of accompanying services, is designed for stakeholders across industries, governments, universities and civil society who seek to mitigate risk and make decisions amid political, economic and security uncertainty. It demonstrates how geopolitical shocks may cascade and offers a structured environment for testing resilience and readiness of policy and business plans.

The New Lines Geopolitical Forecasting and Advisory Unit (GFAU) also produces a set of forecast publications related to geopolitical hotspots around the world and their global connectivity implications. These publications include a Weekly Forecast Monitor, the Global Hotspots podcast, and Quarterly and Annual Forecast Reports. To learn more about forecast reports and analytical products from New Lines Institute — including briefings, simulations, and training sessions — contact us at [email protected] or register below.

Latest Analyses

2025 Fourth Quarter Forecast Report

The fourth quarter of 2025 will be headlined by the potential for military escalation in the Middle East, hybrid escalation…

Global Hotspots: U.S. and EU Sanction Russia Amid Diplomatic Setbacks 

This week, the U.S. imposed sanctions against two Russian oil companies following the cancellation of a meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin, while the EU passed sanctions against Russian energy infrastructure and vessels. In the Indo-Pacific, the U.S. and Australia signed a new critical minerals deal ahead of an upcoming meeting between Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, while the Chinese Communist Party approved a draft of its new five-year plan. In the Middle East, U.S. officials traveled to Israel in an attempt to bolster Gaza ceasefire efforts amid reports of clashes between the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) and Palestinians.

Weekly Forecast Monitor: Oct. 24, 2025

This week, the U.S. imposed sanctions against two Russian oil companies following the cancellation of a meeting between U.S. President…

Global Hotspots: Israel-Hamas Ceasefire Faces Challenges

This week, in the Middle East, Israel and Hamas started implementing the first phase of their ceasefire deal, although violations and delays were reported. In the Indo-Pacific, U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to increase tariffs on Chinese imports ahead of a planned meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping and said India confirmed it would halt Russian oil purchases. In the Russia/Ukraine war, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy met with Trump to discuss the U.S. possibly providing Tomahawk missiles to Ukraine, while U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent pressured his Japanese counterparts to halt Russian oil purchases. Trump confirmed CIA covert operations in Venezuela as the Pentagon confirmed a striking a fifth alleged drug smuggling vessel in the Caribbean.

Weekly Forecast Monitor: Oct. 17, 2025

This week, in the Middle East, Israel and Hamas started implementing the first phase of their ceasefire deal, although violations…

Global Hotspots: Israel and Hamas Reach Ceasefire Deal

This week, in the Middle East, Israel and Hamas agreed to implement the first phase of a U.S.-led ceasefire deal following its signing in Egypt, while U.S. President Donald Trump has announced he may travel to Israel in the coming days. In the Indo-Pacific, China expanded restrictions on rare earth exports and added sanctions against foreign defense companies, while North Korea celebrated the 80th anniversary of the ruling Workers’ Party of Korea’s founding. In the Russia/Ukraine conflict, both countries continued to attack each other’s energy infrastructure, while Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy reported successful ongoing operations in a counteroffensive in the Donetsk region. In the U.S., Trump called for Illinois Governor JB Pritzker to be imprisoned following the deployment of 500 National Guard troops to the state.
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