Geopolitical Forecasting & Risk Management Platform

This week, the United States conducted a major military operation against Venezuela resulting in the capture of President Nicolas Maduro and his wife, with implications throughout the Americas and globally. In the Middle East, U.S. President Donald Trump threatened to intervene militarily in Iran as the country faces large-scale anti-government protests, while Saudi Arabia conducted strikes against UAE-backed forces in Yemen. In the Indo-Pacific, China banned all dual-use exports to Japanese military companies, while Chinese President Xi Jinping met with South Korean President Lee Jae Myung, signaling increased cooperation. In the Russia/Ukraine conflict, the U.S. backed a security guarantees proposal for a Ukraine ceasefire, and Trump approved a bipartisan congressional sanctions package against Russia’s energy sector.

In the last Global Hotspots episode of 2025, Milos and Andrew sit down with New Lines student fellows Ashley Nunes and Sebastian Dittgen. Together, they discuss the other hotspots covered in 2025, includng Venezuela, the DRC, and the wave of Gen Z protests around the globe.

A global adaptation to a new state of the world driven by the White House’s approach to international relations will headline 2026. Efforts to de-escalate the war in Ukraine will persist and gain some traction. In the Middle East, the fragile ceasefire in Gaza will hold as tensions among Israel, Syria, and Iran continue to mount. A U.S.-China trade truce will keep the Indo-Pacific relatively stable economically, as the rival powers continue to vie for influence with diplomatic and security repercussions that extend well beyond the region. Global trade flows are expected to stabilize, supported by improving logistics conditions and more resilient supply-chain networks. At the same time, renewable energy will expand through new installations and a rising share in power generation, reinforced by efficiency gains from AI-driven technologies. Deteriorating humanitarian conditions in Sudan and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, the possibility of armed conflict in Venezuela, and youth-driven protest movements will pose destabilization risks to various degrees around the world.

This week, U.S.-Venezuela tensions escalated as U.S. forces boarded and seized a sanctioned oil tanker off Venezuela’s coast. In the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Ukraine launched drone attacks against Moscow and Russian shadow fleet tankers in the Black Sea, while European leaders held a phone call with U.S. President Donald Trump to advance peace efforts. In the Indo-Pacific, fighting resumed between Thailand and Cambodia, and the U.S. conducted a joint military drill with Japan in response to Chinese military deployments near Japanese airspace. In the Middle East, Israel-Hamas ceasefire efforts stalled over issues dealing with the disarmament of Hamas, and Trump delayed the announcement of members of the Gaza Board of Peace until next year.