The Global Forecast Monitor

This week, Western countries have organized diplomatic outreach to Hayat Tahrir al-Sham in Syria while Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz expressed hope for a potential cease-fire with Hamas. In the Indo-Pacific, members of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue finalized plans to hold joint military exercises for the first time, while the U.S. stated it would take necessary steps to prevent further coercive action from China following the latter’s recent critical minerals ban. In Russia, Ukrainian agents assassinated a top Russian general in Moscow, and North Korean troops participated in intense fighting in Russia’s Kursk region.

This week, Syrian rebel groups captured Damascus, President Bashar al-Assad sought asylum in Moscow, and Israeli forces struck key military targets across Syria. In the Indo-Pacific, China held its largest military drills to date in response to Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te’s recent Pacific tour, while the U.S. increased funding for key initiatives for Taiwan. In Ukraine, Russia made significant advances in Donetsk towards the city of Pokrovsk, while French President Emmanuel Macron hosted a trilateral meeting with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and U.S. President-elect Donald Trump in Paris.

This week, rebel groups in Syria captured Aleppo and other areas in a renewed push against Bashar al-Assad’s government, while Israel bombed Lebanon despite the cease-fire. In the Indo-Pacific, China vowed to halt all exports of critical raw minerals to the U.S. in response to the latter’s new batch of export controls targeting Chinese tech companies, while South Korean President Yoon Suk-Yeol is facing possible impeachment after having imposed martial law, a decision quickly repealed by lawmakers. In the Russia-Ukraine conflict, President Vladimir Putin threatened renewed IRBM strikes against Kyiv as Ukrainian officials met with incoming Trump administration officials in Washington.