Skip to content

Weekly Forecast Monitor: July 19, 2024

The Weekly Forecast Monitor is a forward-looking assessment of geopolitical dynamics shaping our world. To get more in-depth analysis of these issues and learn more about analytical products from New Lines Institute — including simulations, training sessions, and forecast reports — contact us at [email protected] and visit https://newlinesinstitute.org/analytical-products/. Download PDF Version.

The Global Hotspot Tracker examines the outlook for key geopolitical hotspots around the world. (Go to the Global Connectivity Tracker)

Summary – The Russia-Ukraine conflict is trending toward military escalation and diplomatic de-escalation scenarios as Russian troops captured a village in Ukraine’s Donetsk region while Ukrainian troops withdrew from a village in Kherson. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said the hot stage of the war with Russia could end by December and that Russia should take part in a second peace summit. The Kremlin blamed the Biden administration for creating an atmosphere that led an assassin to target former President Donald Trump. 

 

Military escalation scenario

Hybrid escalation scenario

  • Finnish cybersecurity firm WithSecure warned of a significant risk that pro-Russian hackers would target the upcoming Olympics. 
    Risk level – low/medium
  • Ukrainian startups are developing AI systems to fly a fleet of drones in interconnected “swarms.” 
    Risk level – low/medium

Diplomatic de-escalation scenario

  • Zelenskyy said Russia should be represented at a second peace summit, planned for November, to discuss ending the conflict, with the war’s ”‘hot stage” possibly wrapping up by year’s end. In a cautious response, the Kremlin said it needed more detail.  
    Opportunity level – medium
  • Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov confirmed negotiations for a prisoner exchange involving detained U.S. journalist Evan Gershkovich, who was convicted of espionage by a Russian court.  
    Opportunity level – low/medium

Summary – Tensions in the Middle East trended toward military escalation and diplomatic de-escalation scenarios, as Israel continued offensive operations in Gaza while exchanging rocket fire with Hezbollah in southern Lebanon. The U.S. warned that the Islamic State was regrouping in Syria and Iraq after the group claimed responsibility for an attack against a Shiite mosque in Oman. Hamas said diplomatic efforts to reach a cease-fire agreement with Israel were continuing despite ongoing attacks and the suggestion by Israel’s national security minister that a deal should wait until after November’s U.S. elections. 

Military escalation scenario

Hybrid escalation scenario

  • Al-Houthi rebels attacked several ships in the Red Sea about 70 nautical miles southwest of Yemen’s port of Hodeida. 
    Risk level – low/medium
  • U.S. naval forces shot down several al-Houthi drones launched against commercial and military ships. 
    Risk level – low/medium

Diplomatic de-escalation scenario

  • Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir said a cease-fire deal with Hamas should be delayed until after the U.S. elections, saying a deal would benefit U.S. President Joe Biden and undermine Trump.  
    Opportunity level – low/medium
  • Hamas said it would not withdraw from cease-fire talks with Israel despite deadly attacks in Gaza over the past week.  
    Opportunity level – low/medium

Summary – The Indo-Pacific trended toward military and hybrid escalation scenarios as China held military drills both on land and at sea, including some with Russian cooperation. Biden signed the Tibet Dispute Act, drawing condemnation from China, which vowed to protect the integrity of all its territory. China aborted talks with the U.S. on arms control until weapons sales to Taiwan stop and sanctioned U.S. defense industry officials. South Korea identified Russia as a “strategic partner.” 

Military escalation scenario

Hybrid escalation scenario

  • Washington is considering greater restrictions on semiconductor tech exports to China after the revelation that Dutch lithography supplier ASML maintained half of its export volume to China. 
    Risk level – medium
  • Biden signed the Tibet Dispute Act, which pressures China to resolve the dispute over Tibet’s demands for greater autonomy, drawing strong opposition from China. 
    Risk level – medium
  • North Korea will soon resume sending trash balloons across its border with South Korea, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un’s sister claimed.  
    Risk level – low/medium
  • Trump’s assertion that Taiwan should pay the U.S. for continued defense support sent the stock price of semiconductor giant TSMC lower.  
    Risk level – low

Diplomatic de-escalation scenario

  • China and the Philippines signed an agreement to open a direct line of communication between presidential offices to prevent future escalations of South China Sea disputes.  
    Opportunity level – low/medium

The Global Connectivity Tracker examines the sectoral impact of geopolitical dynamics on key themes like the global energy/climate transition, trade, and technology. (Go to the Global Hotspot Tracker)

  1. Global: Energy/Climate   
    What happened: British Petroleum has revised its projections of global oil and gas demand, indicating a slowdown in the clean energy transition. 
    Significance/Outlook: According to the latest BP projections, wind and solar power will not expand fast enough to meet global energy demand. Delays in achieving energy transition targets mean fossil fuels will likely continue to play a significant role in the world’s energy mix. This year’s BP forecasting models project higher oil and natural gas demand, with an associated rise in carbon dioxide emissions through 2035 compared with last year’s predictions. In the net-zero emissions scenario, stringent and effective policies and innovative energy technologies will be needed to promote renewable energy development and reduce fossil fuel demand by 25% by 2030 and 80% by 2050.     
    Risk level – low/medium
  2. U.S.: Solar/Wind/Nuclear
    What happened: During the first half of 2024, the amount of electricity generated by solar and wind in the U.S. surpassed what was generated by nuclear power plants for the first time.
    Significance/Outlook: In early 2024, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) projected that wind and solar energy would lead U.S. electricity generation growth over the next two years. The EIA expects U.S. solar generation to expand by 75% and wind by 11%, respectively, by 2025 over 2023’s figures. While renewables grow, coal-fired generation is expected to decrease; nuclear power will stay flat; and natural gas will continue to generate the most U.S. electricity. Despite this growth, renewables still will need to further expand to boost the energy transition and meet carbon dioxide emissions targets. 
    Opportunity level – low/medium
  3. Zambia/U.S.: Tech/Copper 
    What happened: The U.S. company KoBold, using a combination of new technologies including artificial intelligence, announced its discovery of a massive deposit of copper, an element critical to the global energy transition, in Zambia.   
    Significance/Outlook: KoBold, based in California’s Silicon Valley, harnessed AI tools to examine its massive database that includes information gathered with use of detectors that measure the density of subatomic particles called muons, plus aerial surveys and digitized paper records, to locate the copper deposit, buried about a mile below the surface. KoBold estimates its discovery in Zambia’s Copperbelt Province, where the elemental metal has been mined since pre-colonial times, could yield 300,000 tons of copper. The United States and its partners plan to spend close to $1 billion to extend a railroad connecting resource-heavy regions of the Democratic Republic of the Congo to ports in Angola into Zambia’s copper-rich region.   
    Opportunity level – medium
  4. France/Russia: Cyber
    What happened:
    Finnish cybersecurity firm WithSecure has assessed with high confidence that the 2024 Paris Olympic Games will face an elevated risk from malign cyber activity perpetrated by various state and nonstate actors compared with previous Olympics. 
    Significance/Outlook: Malign actors such as state-sponsored entities from Russia and other countries, pro-Russian hacktivist groups, and nonstate ransomware groups all could have political and financial motive for such attacks. The most likely risk comes from intrusions by Russian state-sponsored groups, which could see the Olympics as an opportunity to discredit the International Olympic Committee as well as France. In light of the previous attacks targeting the Olympics, the French national cybersecurity agency ANSSI has assigned a third of its staff to ensuring adequate countermeasures. 
    Risk level – low/medium
  5. Australia/Indonesia: Nickel
    What happened:
    The mining company BHP will suspend nickel operations in Australia in response to an oversupply fueled by Indonesia. 
    Significance/Outlook: Depressed nickel prices prompted BHP’s decision to suspend mining and processing of the strategic metal, a key input of electric vehicle batteries. Indonesian production facilities, backed by Chinese investors, have increased output, which, when combined with a rapid expansion of low-cost nickel alternatives, caused the glut in the market. Combined, Indonesia and China own a 70% share of global nickel production. BHP struggled to maintain production in the face of the economic effects of the oversupply. 
    Opportunity level – medium
  • Solar and wind power generation in the U.S. reached a record 401.4 terawatt-hours (TWh) between January and June 2024, surpassing nuclear power generation of 390.5 TWh during the same period.  
  • Solar generation increased 30% and wind power output increased 10% in the first half of 2024 compared with the same period in 2023.  

Related Articles

Bottom-Up Peace and Conflict Resolution in Syria: Podcast

Bottom-Up Peace and Conflict Resolution in Syria: Podcast

In this edition of The New Lines Institute Middle East Center’s Post-Assad Podcast series, Middle East Center co-director Nicholas A. Heras sits down with Sasha Ghosh-Siminoff to analyze how humanitarian and economic rehabilitation efforts can support peacebuilding in Syria. Sasha is a Nonresident Fellow with the Middle East Center at The New Lines Institute who has a granular and nuanced perspective on Syria that comes from his oversight over targeted civil society capacity building and humanitarian assistance programs throughout Syria. He is also currently the Middle East and North Africa Program Director for the Evangelical Lutheran Church in America, and a Security Fellow at the Truman National Security Project. Heras and Ghosh-Siminoff also assess what should be the priorities for international organizations looking to support the rehabilitation of Syria.

The Prospects for Nation-Building in Syria after Assad: Podcast

The Prospects for Nation-Building in Syria after Assad: Podcast

In this edition of The New Lines Institute Middle East Center’s Post-Assad Podcast series, Middle East Center co-director Nicholas A.

Can a Former Al Qaeda Affiliate Stabilize Syria After Assad? Podcast

Can a Former Al Qaeda Affiliate Stabilize Syria After Assad? Podcast

In this inaugural edition of The New Lines Institute Middle East Center’s Post-Assad Podcast series, Middle East Center co-director Nicholas

Why Shiites Should Be the Last to Call for U.S. Expulsion 

Why Shiites Should Be the Last to Call for U.S. Expulsion 

The Middle East is a region whose deeply diverse peoples are profoundly interconnected both with one another and the rest