Senior Director, Analytical Development and Training Department
Eugene Chausovsky is the Senior Director for Analytical Development and Training. He oversees the institute’s analytical methodology and forecasting process, manages institutional training efforts, and guides the development of analytical products.
Chausovsky previously served as Senior Eurasia Analyst at the geopolitical intelligence firm Stratfor for more than 10 years. His analytical work has focused on political, economic and security issues pertaining to Russia, Eurasia, and China, as well as global connectivity issues related to energy and climate change.
He has contributed articles to a wide range of outlets including Foreign Policy, The National Interest, the Wall Street Journal, Forbes, and Al Jazeera and has given interviews to global media outlets such as BBC, CNBC, Bloomberg, Politico, and CNN. He has served as a speaker at international conferences and as a guest lecturer at universities in the United States and abroad. He has also organized crisis simulations and delivered client briefings to numerous international organizations and businesses, including Fortune 500 companies. Chausovsky holds a Master of International Public Policy degree from the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies and a Bachelor of Arts in International Relations from the University of Texas at Austin. He tweets at @eugenechausovsk.
This week, in the Middle East, Israel and Hamas agreed to implement the first phase of a U.S.-led ceasefire deal following its signing in Egypt, while U.S. President Donald Trump has announced he may travel to Israel in the coming days. In the Indo-Pacific, China expanded restrictions on rare earth exports and added sanctions against foreign defense companies, while North Korea celebrated the 80th anniversary of the ruling Workers’ Party of Korea’s founding. In the Russia/Ukraine conflict, both countries continued to attack each other’s energy infrastructure, while Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy reported successful ongoing operations in a counteroffensive in the Donetsk region. In the U.S., Trump called for Illinois Governor JB Pritzker to be imprisoned following the deployment of 500 National Guard troops to the state.
This week, Israel accepted a U.S. proposal to end the war in Gaza that has received support from Qatar and Egypt, while U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order providing safety guarantees to Qatar. In the Russia/Ukraine conflict, Trump is considering providing Ukraine with Tomahawk cruise missiles and targeting intelligence, and G7 countries pledged to coordinate measures against nations importing Russian oil. In the Indo-Pacific, documents revealed that Russia was aiding China in its planning of airborne operations, while the U.S. indicated it was not making efforts to lower tariffs against China. In the U.S., a government shutdown began following deadlocked talks between Republicans and Democrats.
The fourth quarter of 2025 will be headlined by the potential for military escalation in the Middle East, including increased Israeli operations in Gaza and the expansion of Israel’s targeting of Iran-aligned groups throughout the region.
In the Russia/Ukraine conflict, the fourth quarter will be marked by hybrid escalation in the form of additional Western tariffs and sanctions against Russia as the diplomatic track to reach an end to the conflict will continue to prove elusive.
In the Indo-Pacific, the fourth quarter will see diplomatic de-escalation as the U.S. and China make further progress toward a trade agreement that lowers tariffs. In global connectivity themes, there will be slight enhancements in trade in the fourth quarter as the White House’s tariffs and technology restrictions rebalance and broadly settle into a new normal, while AI-driven boosts in power consumption and climate-related threats raise the risk of energy disruption.
Eugene Chausovsky is the Senior Director for Analytical Development and Training. He oversees the institute’s analytical methodology and forecasting process,
