This week, Ukraine conducted multiple sabotage operations across Russia, including attacks on Russia’s strategic bomber fleet and infrastructure, while representatives from both countries agreed on a prisoner exchange. In the Indo-Pacific, China’s slow resumption of rare earth elements exports has led industries to warn of potential shutdowns. U.S.-China trade negotiations continued, and the U.S. doubled tariffs on global steel and aluminum imports. In the Middle East, Iran rejected U.S. terms for a nuclear deal, while Russian President Vladimir Putin offered to assist in negotiations during a phone call with U.S. President Donald Trump.
Weekly Forecast Monitor: June 6, 2025
The Geopolitical Hotspots Monitor examines the outlook for key geopolitical hotspots around the world.
1 Russia/Ukraine Conflict
Summary
The Russia/Ukraine war trended toward hybrid escalation as Ukraine used hidden drones to destroy strategic bomber aircraft at airfields throughout Russia. In a separate operation, Ukraine detonated underwater explosives, damaging the support infrastructure of the Kerch Strait Bridge, which connects Russia to occupied Crimea. Explosives brought down additional bridges in western Russia, but no party has publicly claimed responsibility for those attacks. Meanwhile, Ukrainian and Russian diplomats met for a second round of negotiations in Istanbul, where they agreed to a prisoner exchange but made no progress toward a peace settlement. Russia captured at least 58 square miles of territory in Ukraine’s Sumy region and conducted combined drone and missile attacks against cities across Ukraine.
2 Middle East
Summary
The Middle East remained at the status quo as Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei rejected U.S. terms for a nuclear deal and reiterated his opposition to abandoning Iran’s uranium enrichment efforts, a key U.S. demand in ongoing talks. Putin offered to leverage Russia’s relationship with Iran to help achieve a deal during a phone call with Trump. The U.S. vetoed a U.N. Security Council resolution calling for an immediate ceasefire in Gaza. Meanwhile, Israeli forces killed dozens of Palestinians and paused the limited aid distribution taking place in the territory. Israel conducted airstrikes in southern Syria following rocket launches into the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights from Syrian territory. A previously unknown militia calling itself the Martyr Mohammed Deif Brigades claimed responsibility for the rocket launches, although the claim has not been independently verified. U.S. Ambassador to Türkiye and Special Envoy to Syria Thomas Barrack said the U.S. will reduce its military presence in Syria to a single base.
3 U.S./China/Indo-Pacific
Summary
The Indo-Pacific trended toward hybrid escalation as automakers across the world warned against the effects of the slow rollout of China’s rare earth elements exports, with some companies having to shut down as a result. China accused the U.S. of breaching last month’s trade deal, and Chinese state media reported that Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping discussed bilateral tensions in a phone call, agreeing to continue trade talks. The EU agreed to deepen security ties with the Philippines and hold further trade talks with China. The U.S. called on its Indo-Pacific allies to spend more on defense during the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, where Australia also expressed interest in deepening trilateral security ties with the U.S. and Japan.
4 Other Hotspots
United States
The U.S. doubled its tariffs on steel and aluminum imports to 50% a week after an international trade court ruled against Trump’s unilateral imposition of “reciprocal” tariffs. These tariffs are set to hit all steel and aluminum imports, except for those from the U.K., whose levies remain at 25%. Forecast – economic destabilization scenario
South Korea
The head of the liberal Democratic Party, Lee Jae-myung, was elected president following months of political uncertainty. Forecast – political stabilization scenario
Poland
Conservative candidate Karol Nawrocki won the presidential election with 50.89% of the vote, beating liberal Warsaw mayor Rafał Trzaskowski. Afterward, Prime Minister Donald Tusk said he would ask parliament to hold a vote of confidence in the coalition government. Forecast – political destabilization scenario
Mexico
The country’s inaugural judicial elections yielded a low voter turnout of 13%, as the Supreme Court is set to align strongly with the ruling Morena party, stoking fears of a power imbalance. Forecast – political destabilization scenario
The Global Connectivity Tracker examines the impact of geopolitical dynamics on key themes like trade, technology, and energy/climate.
1
United States
Geothermal Energy
What Happened
The U.S. Department of the Interior has indicated it would speed approvals of certain geothermal energy projects, including three in Nevada, as part of the White House’s push to expand domestic energy supplies.
Significance/Outlook
The three projects, all being developed by Ormat Technologies, are being fast-tracked under authority of the “energy emergency” declared by President Donald Trump during his first weeks in office, a move that is set to compress a process that typically would have taken months or years into 28 days or fewer. A recent report by the U.S. Geological Survey found that the Great Basin in Nevada and other Western states had enough geothermal potential to fulfill 10% of U.S. electricity demand.
2
United States
Clean Energy
What Happened
The United States’ clean power production reached historic levels, surpassing the production of fossil fuels in the past three months.
Significance/Outlook
Renewable energy sources generated 50.5% of the United States’ electricity. Clean energy sources were responsible for 50.8% of the electricity that was generated in April, an 8% year-over-year increase due to more generation from solar farms and hydro power. In April, gas-fired energy generation was 6% lower than in 2024, supporting clean power generation trends. Solar power output hit a record 883,000 megawatt-hours in May, up 19% from 2024. A surge in solar and wind power installations, favorable weather patterns, improved regulatory support, and soaring natural gas prices are the primary factors driving the clean energy increase. This marks a milestone in U.S. energy transition efforts and indicates a growing adeptness within generation networks to maximize the output of clean energy while reducing the use of fossil fuels.
3
European Union
Climate
The move to allow international carbon credits would undermine the EU’s goals of achieving climate neutrality by 2050. Europe would lose an important chance to modernize its economy, generate quality jobs, and solidify its position as a clean technology leader if it waits or depends on international carbon credits.
What Happened
The European Scientific Advisory Board on Climate Change warned the EU against changing its criteria to meet 2040 emission goals.
Significance/Outlook
Political pressure and economic concerns from countries such as France and Germany have pushed the EU to consider allowing international carbon credits to satisfy its emissions targets. The advisory board warned against using carbon credits to reach its 2040 climate objectives (90% net domestic greenhouse gas emission reductions) because they could drain resources from home initiatives and harm the environment. The 2040 EU energy/climate targets will help boost clean technology adoption like electrification, enhancing energy security by lowering fossil fuel imports, and accelerating EU innovation and investment.
4
OPEC+
Oil
What Happened
OPEC+ announced it will continue increasing oil production by 411,000 barrels per day in July, a third consecutive monthly hike.
Significance/Outlook
These increases are part of a broader plan to gradually restore 2.2 million bpd of production by late 2026 that had been idled in recent years. This marks a shift in OPEC+ strategy, signaling a move to regain lost market share at the expense of lower prices. While consumers may benefit in the short term, prolonged low prices could strain producing nations’ economies. Russia is particularly vulnerable, as it relies heavily on energy revenues to fund its war in Ukraine and manage the impact of international sanctions. Saudi Arabia may benefit from increased market share and geopolitical influence, but lower prices make it harder to fund ongoing domestic megaprojects.
5
Russia
Natural Gas
What Happened
Russian pipeline gas exports to Europe via the TurkStream pipeline rose to 46.0 million cubic meters per day from 41.7 mcm in April, a 10.3% increase.
Significance/Outlook
TurkStream, which runs under the Black Sea from Russia to Türkiye, has become the sole conduit for Russian pipeline gas to Europe after Ukraine chose not to renew its transit agreement and halted gas flows through its territory at the end of December 2024. Total deliveries through TurkStream reached 7.2 billion cubic meters (bcm) in the first five months of 2025, up from 6.6 bcm during the same period in 2024. The increase signals Russia’s continued effort to maintain a foothold in the European gas market despite sanctions and limited transit options, and it reflects the ongoing dependence of Türkiye and parts of Europe on Russian gas. Russian gas flows through TurkStream are likely to remain steady or rise over the summer, driven by seasonal demand and growing natural gas consumption trends in Europe.