This week in the Middle East, Israel carried out unilateral strikes against Iran’s nuclear facilities and killed top Iranian military officials, leading to Iranian retaliation with drone strikes against Israel. In the Indo-Pacific, the U.S. and China both confirmed they reached a trade deal framework involving a resumption of rare earth elements exports and a reduction in tariffs, while newly elected South Korean President Lee Jae-myung conducted diplomatic outreach to the U.S. and China. In Ukraine, Russia launched some of the most extensive missile and drone strikes against Ukrainian cities since the start of the war, while the European Commission proposed a new round of sanctions against Moscow. In the U.S., the National Guard and Marines were deployed to Los Angeles amid ongoing protests over an immigration crackdown.
Weekly Forecast Monitor: June 13, 2025
The Geopolitical Hotspots Monitor examines the outlook for key geopolitical hotspots around the world.
1 Russia/Ukraine Conflict
Summary
The Russia/Ukraine war trended toward military escalation as Russian forces advanced in Ukraine’s Dnipropetrovsk and Sumy regions. Russia intensified its bombing campaign against Ukrainian cities, conducting the some of the largest recorded missile and drone attacks since February 2022. German defense officials released an assessment claiming that Ukraine’s recent sabotage operation damaged 10% of Russia’s strategic bomber fleet. The European Union is preparing new sanctions targeting Russia’s oil sector that would place a lower cap on oil prices and freeze the assets of nine individuals and 33 companies involved in Russia’s “shadow fleet” of oil tankers. Meanwhile, Russian officials confirmed that the next round of bilateral talks focused on the normalization of relations between Russia and the U.S. will be hosted in Moscow in the “very near future.” Russia and Ukraine exchanged prisoners of war under an agreement made in previous talks.
2 Middle East
Summary
The Middle East trended toward military escalation as Israel bombed nuclear infrastructure and military sites across Iran, killing numerous senior Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps officials and nuclear scientists. In response, Iran launched over 100 drones toward Israel and promised further retaliation. Prior to the attacks, the U.S. had ordered the departure of diplomats and other civilian personnel from diplomatic posts and military bases across the Middle East. Iran withdrew from nuclear negotiations with the U.S. that had been scheduled to be held in Oman on June 15. Russia offered to help remove enriched uranium from Iran and convert it for energy purposes. The U.K., Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and Norway imposed sanctions on Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich over the expansion of Israeli settlements in the West Bank. Israeli forces killed dozens of Palestinians in Gaza, and Israel initiated a ground operation in the West Bank city of Nablus and hit Hezbollah targets in Lebanon with airstrikes.
3 U.S./China/Indo-Pacific
Summary
The Indo-Pacific trended toward diplomatic de-escalation as the U.S. and China confirmed they had agreed to a framework for a trade deal following the latest round of negotiations in London, including a reduction in tariffs and a resumption of rare earth exports. China extended an anti-subsidy investigation into EU pork imports by six months, while the EU imposed tariffs on Chinese plywood imports, as European manufacturers demanded that Brussels pressure China to resume rare earth mineral exports to Europe. Newly elected South Korean President Lee held phone conversations with his U.S., Japanese, and Chinese counterparts while pushing for de-escalation at the North Korean border.
4 Other Hotspots
United States
Protests continued in Los Angeles and have spread to other cities following the deployment of 700 active-duty Marines and 4,000 National Guard troops despite objections from California Gov. Gavin Newsom, who has sued the administration. A federal court of appeals temporarily paused a ruling made in the lawsuit that declared Trump’s federalization of the National Guard as illegal. Texas Gov. Greg Abbott has confirmed he would deploy the state’s National Guard ahead of planned protests. Forecast – political destabilization scenario
Colombia
Bombs went off in Cali just days after a conservative senator, Miguel Uribe Turbay, was shot in an attack in Bogota. Uribe, who was left in critical condition, is seeking his party’s nomination in next year’s presidential election. An underage boy was arrested in connection with the attack on Uribe. Authorities say the bombings were likely the result of operations by FARC-EMC, though they are still investigating whether the two attacks were connected. Forecast – security destabilization scenario
The Global Connectivity Tracker examines the impact of geopolitical dynamics on key themes like trade, technology, and energy/climate.
United States
Coal
What Happened
The White House has approved the fast-track expansion of a Montana coal mine that will extend the mine’s life by nine years and allow it to extract an extra 60 million tons of coal.
Significance/Outlook
President Donald Trump’s declaration of a national energy emergency near the start of his presidency allowed the U.S. Department of the Interior to approve the expansion of the Bull Mountain mine, cutting short an environmental review that would have taken another year to complete. Most of the coal extracted from the Bull Mountain mine will be exported to Asia, Interior Department Secretary Doug Burgum said. An analysis by the U.S. Energy Information Agency has found that U.S. production of all types of coal dropped by more than half over the past 20 years due to environmental concerns, increased costs, and competition from other electricity generation sources. Without the expansion, the mine’s operator, Signal Peak Energy, had said it would have had to curtail production within a matter of months.
Brazil/Africa
Oil
What Happened
Petrobras, Brazil’s state-owned oil and gas company, announced plans to make Africa its primary exploration region outside Brazil.
Significance/Outlook
The move marks Petrobras’ return to African upstream activity after years of divestment. Appointed in June 2024, Petrobras’ new CEO Magda Chambriard has aligned the company’s strategy with President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s broader agenda to use Petrobras as both an economic growth engine and diplomatic instrument ahead of Brazil’s hosting of the COP30 climate summit. The pivot is also driven by practical challenges: Delays in obtaining environmental permits for key domestic projects, particularly in the Foz do Amazonas region, have accelerated the company’s shift abroad. Africa also presents familiar geology for Petrobras, which has already invested in South Africa and São Tomé and Príncipe and is actively pursuing further partnerships across West Africa. As a state-owned firm, its expansion abroad supports Brazil’s dual goals of economic revitalization and geopolitical positioning.
European Union
Renewable Energy
What Happened
A shortage of investment in grid infrastructure and battery storage for EU countries relying heavily on renewables has increased grid strains and triggered the collapse of power systems, a report by the European Commission noted.
Significance/Outlook
The EU has dramatically increased renewable energy investments in the past decade as EU governments have taken steps to curb emissions of greenhouse gases. This push gained momentum following the energy price shock caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. However, investment in grid infrastructure and battery storage has lagged the rapid shift in the power generating mix for the energy transition. The International Energy Agency estimates that for every dollar spent on renewable generation, only about 40 cents are spent on electric grid improvements. The growing integration of intermittent renewable energy sources like solar and wind into power grids is a significant driver of grid frequency variation. This can cause imbalances in the grid, threatening its stability and reliability, leading to power outages. Grid modernization, including the integration of battery energy storage systems, can help regulate power grid frequency.
Taiwan/U.S.
Liquefied Natural Gas
What Happened
A senior Taiwanese official visited Alaska’s North Slope to tour the site of a proposed liquefied natural gas (LNG) export project backed by the U.S. government.
Significance/Outlook
Taiwan’s state-owned CPC Corporation previously signed a nonbinding agreement to invest in and import gas from the Alaska LNG Project. The visit reflects growing U.S.-Taiwan energy ties and efforts to diversify LNG supply amid rising Indo-Pacific demand. The project, led by Glenfarne Group, could export up to 20 million metric tons of LNG annually and has attracted commercial interest from over 50 companies seeking supply agreements or investment opportunities. The visit signals that Taiwan’s new administration is actively backing U.S.-supported energy projects, as the Alaska LNG development moves closer to key investment decisions. Glenfarne has stated it expects to reach a final investment decision on the domestic pipeline portion by the end of 2025, indicating significant progress in securing commercial partners and finalizing project development plans. If completed, it would become the first U.S. LNG export terminal on the West Coast, opening a direct LNG route to Asia that would bypass bottlenecks like the Panama Canal and reduce shipping costs.
China
Rare Earths
Chinese export controls on critical minerals and rare earth magnets and delays in issuing export licenses threaten global supply chains. China controls over 90% of global processing capacity for magnets. The export shortages of those critical components would interrupt automobile manufacturing, reducing production volume and perhaps leading to assembly line shutdowns.
What Happened
Restricted Chinese exports of critical minerals have prompted manufacturers across the globe, including BMW, GM, Toyota, Volkswagen, Hyundai, and others, to warn of production delays in the automotive, defense, and clean energy industries.
Significance/Outlook
China’s export restrictions on rare earth magnets and other critical minerals threaten to shut down vehicle manufacturing plants, straining economies in the United States, Japan, South Korea, India, and Germany. The restricted rare earths joined over a dozen minerals and related elements on a Chinese export control list, requiring licenses to export the materials abroad. If critical minerals and rare earth magnets cannot be reliably sourced, automotive suppliers will be unable to manufacture essential components.