This week, Hamas and Israel tentatively agreed to a cease-fire and hostage release in Gaza, while Israel continued its operations in the West Bank and in Lebanon. Russia and Iran made plans to sign a new strategic partnership agreement, while NATO launched its new naval patrolling mission in the Baltic Sea. In the Indo-Pacific, the U.S. and China exchanged new rounds of trade sanctions and restrictions, and South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol was arrested in his compound after a week-long standoff with authorities.
Weekly Forecast Monitor: Jan. 17, 2025
The Geopolitical Hotspots Monitor examines the outlook for key geopolitical hotspots around the world.
1 Russia/Ukraine Conflict
Summary
The Russia/Ukraine war trended toward military and hybrid escalation scenarios as Ukraine carried out a large attack in Russia using Western weapons and Russian forces advanced toward Ukraine’s Dnipro region. Russia and Iran signed a strategic cooperation agreement, and NATO announced a mission to counter Russian sabotage and sanctions evasion operations in the Baltic Sea.
2 Middle East
Summary
Conflict in the Middle East trended toward diplomatic de-escalation and military escalation scenarios as Israel and Hamas agreed to a tentative cease-fire and hostage release/prisoner exchange deal in Gaza as Israel continued to conduct airstrikes across the territory. Israeli forces also carried out airstrikes in Lebanon despite an ongoing cease-fire with Hezbollah and they arrested dozens of Palestinians while conducting security operations in the West Bank. Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, the militant group that ousted the Syrian regime of Bashar al-Assad in December, said it disrupted an Islamic State group plot to set off a bomb in a suburb of Damascus.
3 U.S./China/Indo-Pacific
Summary
Tensions in the Indo-Pacific trended toward hybrid escalation as China added 11 U.S. companies to its entity list, barring them from doing business in China. The U.S. increased its export restrictions on advanced chips and added import restrictions against Chinese companies associated with Uyghur abuses. North Korea conducted new ballistic missile tests, and an airstrike by Myanmar’s government killed dozens in Rakhine state. China announced it will send a military delegation to Japan to improve bilateral ties.
4 Other Hotspots
South Korea
Anti-corruption investigators arrested President Yoon Suk-yeol after he refused to attend his impeachment hearing. Forecast – political de-stabilization scenario
United States/Cuba
U.S. President Joe Biden removed Cuba’s designation as a state sponsor of terrorism, and Cuba stated it would release 500 prisoners from its jails. Forecast – diplomatic de-escalation scenario
United States/Denmark/Greenland
Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said during a call with President-elect Donald Trump that Denmark is willing to strengthen Arctic security, but it would be up to Greenland to decide on its independence. Frederiksen also convened Danish business leaders after Trump refused to rule out using economic force to take control of Greenland. Forecast – hybrid escalation scenario
The Global Connectivity Tracker examines the impact of geopolitical dynamics on key themes like trade, technology, and energy/climate.
1
Global
Climate
What Happened
Despite leaders’ promises to attempt to avoid global warming of more than 1.5 degrees Celsius a decade ago, data from the European Union shows that the Earth has come dangerously near to that point.
Significance/Outlook
The environmental monitoring program in Europe, the Copernicus Climate Change Service, determined that 2024 was the warmest year on record for Earth. West Africa experienced record temperatures, portions of South America experienced droughts, central Europe experienced high rainfall, and North America and South Asia experienced strong tropical storms in 2024. At the beginning of 2025, high winds and droughts caused wildfires in Los Angeles. Addressing global warming and average temperature increases requires intensification of global efforts on climate change mitigation and adaptation.
2
United States
Climate
What Happened
Wildfires in Los Angeles have damaged tens of thousands of homes, schools, and businesses and killed at least 27 people.
Significance/Outlook
The fires have caused at least $250 billion in damage. Dry conditions and high winds are exacerbating their spread. Climate change has caused longer droughts, higher temperatures, and a lack of rain in California, increasing the state’s vulnerability to wildfires. Adaptation and making global climate-warming emission reduction a top U.S. foreign policy and national security goal may prevent the worst effects.
3
NATO/Russia
Critical Infrastructure
What Happened
In response to several incidents since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 that have damaged undersea data and telecommunications cables, gas pipelines, and power infrastructure, NATO has dispatched naval forces to patrol the Baltic Sea.
Significance/Outlook
NATO, which suspects that Russian vessels intentionally damaged the undersea infrastructure connecting countries bordering the sea, has dispatched frigates, aircraft, and naval drones to patrol the waters there. In December, Finnish authorities seized an oil-laden Russian tanker suspected of damaging a power cable and four data cables by intentionally dragging its anchor along the seabed. NATO warned it would board and seize other vessels suspected of similar activity. In September 2022, Nord Stream 1 and 2, a series of pipelines built by Russian state energy company Gazprom to deliver natural gas to Germany, were damaged by explosions in what was determined to be an act of sabotage, although an investigation into the incident was closed without any suspects being named.
4
Türkiye/Qatar/Syria
Electricity
What Happened
Qatar and Türkiye have each sent an electricity-generating ship to Syria to help shore up the war-torn country’s power supplies.
Significance/Outlook
The 13-year-long civil war in Syria left its electric generation and transmission infrastructure only capable of supplying two or three hours of electricity a day. The ships each have a generation capacity of 400 megawatts, with their combined total equal to about half the amount of the country’s current output. The dispatch of the ships was made possible under a six-month suspension of sanctions against Syrian governing entities by the United States to increase humanitarian assistance to the country. Türkiye’s energy ministry has said it can export more electricity to Syria once the Syrian transmission infrastructure has been evaluated.
5
Russia/Ukraine
Natural Gas
What Happened
The Russian military accused Ukraine of targeting TurkStream, a pipeline that carries Russian gas to Türkiye, with a drone strike that resulted in “minor damage.” Ukraine has not responded to the allegation.
Significance/Outlook
TurkStream is the only remaining direct pipeline to connect Russian gas to Europe and remains a vital component for the provision of natural gas to Central Europe. Russia provides Serbia and Hungary with natural gas through the TurkStream pipeline across the Black Sea, despite losing natural gas transit routes through Ukraine to Slovakia and Austria. Slovakia and Hungary, which must pay more for alternative gas sources, are in a diplomatic dispute with Ukraine over gas transit.