Weekly Forecast Monitor: Dec. 13, 2024

Summary 

The Russia/Ukraine war trended toward military escalation and diplomatic de-escalation scenarios as Belarussian President Alexander Lukashenko announced his country was hosting Russian nuclear weapons, Russian forces continued their advance in Donetsk, and Denmark delivered F-16s to Ukraine. President-elect Donald Trump discussed peace efforts with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and French President Emmanuel Macron in Paris. Macron discussed the possibility of an international peacekeeping force in Ukraine with Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk.

Forecast indicators 

Military escalation scenario 

• Belarussian President Alexander Lukashenko announced this week that Russia had transferred over one dozen nuclear warheads to his country.
• Russian forces continued their push into Ukraine’s Donetsk region, where they captured the city of Selydove and advanced to within a mile of Pokrovsk.
• Zelenskyy said 43,000 Ukrainian troops had been killed in action since the February 2022 Russian invasion, a number believed to be a strong underestimate by many Western governments. In a social media post, Trump claimed Ukraine had lost 400,000 troops.
• A second delivery of F-16s arrived in Ukraine from Denmark, according to Zelenskyy, who did not specify the number of aircraft.
• Russia continued to attack cities across Ukraine, including a ballistic missile strike on a clinic in Zaporizhzhia that killed at least 10 people.

Hybrid escalation scenario 

• The United States transferred $20 billion in frozen Russian assets to a fund with the World Bank that Ukraine can access.
• Russia targeted Ukrainian power infrastructure in a large scale attack, firing at least 287 missiles and drones according to the Ukrainian air force.
• U.S. President Joe Biden’s administration is weighing new sanctions targeting Russia’s oil sector and its “shadow fleet” of unregistered tankers used to evade current sanctions targeting its oil exports.
• Ukrainian strikes caused fires at oil depots in Russia’s Rostov and Bryansk regions. No casualties were reported.
• Sergei Yevsyukov, the former leader of a prison where dozens of Ukrainian prisoners of war were killed, died in a car bombing in the occupied Donetsk region, according to Ukrainian media reports.

Diplomatic de-escalation scenario 

• During a meeting hosted by Macron, Zelenskyy lobbied Trump for security guarantees for Ukraine in a postwar scenario. After the meeting, Zelenskyy praised Trump, saying he is feared by Russian President Vladimir Putin.
• Macron and Tusk discussed the possibility of deploying international peacekeeping forces to Ukraine as part of a peace deal, a plan Zelenskyy said he might consider. Separately, Tusk said peace negotiations may begin in the final weeks of 2024.
• In a post on social media platform Truth Social, Trump stated Zelenskyy was ready for a peace deal and called on Putin to act.
• Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said Russia is willing to conduct another prisoner exchange with the United States.

Summary

Conflict in the Middle East trended toward diplomatic de-escalation and military escalation scenarios as Syrian President Bashar al-Assad fled to Russia after Damascus fell to Syria’s Ha’yat Tahir al-Sham (HTS) rebels, and the U.S. and U.K. considered delisting HTS as a foreign terrorist organization. Israel launched hundreds of airstrikes and a ground incursion into Syria and began a phased withdrawal from Lebanon. Hamas submitted a list of hostages to Israel for a potential prisoner exchange and agreed to a conditional postwar presence of Israel Defense Forces in Gaza.

Forecast indicators 

Military escalation scenario 

• HTS’s capture of Damascus ended Assad’s rule. As the HTS offensive advanced on the capital, Russia evacuated Assad and his family to Moscow.
• Within 48 hours of the fall of Damascus, the IDF conducted at least 480 strikes, destroying 70%-80% of the military assets formally controlled by Assad, and conducted a ground incursion into Syria to seize and hold territory across from the Golan Heights, including Mount Hermon. Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz has ordered IDF forces to occupy the Syrian side of the mountain for the “winter months.”
• Russia requested permission from Türkiye to relocate its ground forces to regions of northern Syria under Turkish control as it began a troop evacuation. Russia has not announced whether it will close its naval base in Tartus.
• HTS forces captured the city of Deir ez-Zor after fighting with the Syrian Democratic Forces, a U.S.-backed Kurdish group.
• Israeli airstrikes and other attacks killed dozens of Palestinians in Gaza.

Hybrid escalation scenario 

• The Ukrainian Ministry of Foreign Affairs denied a report saying Ukrainian intelligence operatives provided HTS with around 150 drones and training on their use prior to their Syrian offensive.

Diplomatic de-escalation scenario 

• Hamas has presented Egyptian mediators with a list of around 30 hostages it is willing to exchange for Palestinian prisoners currently held by Israel and agreed to a temporary postwar IDF presence in Gaza as part of a potential cease-fire deal. The list is said to include four U.S. citizens. Israel has yet to comment.
• Israeli soldiers withdrew from the city of Khiam in southern Lebanon and were replaced by soldiers from the Lebanese national army. U.S. Central Command leader Gen. Michael Kurilla was in Beirut to observe the withdrawal.
• The administrations of U.S. President Joe Biden and U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer have begun deliberations on possibly lifting their designations of HTS as a foreign terrorist organization.
• U.S. President-elect Donald Trump indicated in a social media post that his administration would not militarily intervene or otherwise become involved in Syria following the collapse of the Assad regime. Trump did not comment on the status of U.S. forces currently in Syria.
• Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani credited the U.S. election results with restoring “momentum” to the Israel/Gaza peace process. Meanwhile, Trump’s incoming Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff threatened a harsh response from Washington if Hamas still held hostages by Trump’s inauguration.
• The Syrian Democratic Forces and Turkish-backed Syrian militias agreed to a cease-fire mediated by the U.S. after fighting in Manbij caused hundreds of casualties.

Summary

Tensions in the Indo-Pacific trended toward hybrid and military escalation, as China launched its largest-yet military exercises around Taiwan. The U.S. House allocated funding for key initiatives for Taiwan’s defense in its annual defense policy bill. China is investigating U.S. chipmaker Nvidia Corp. for antitrust violations. The Philippines ruled out using its navy to settle disputes in the South China Sea. South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol may face a second impeachment motion from lawmakers as the country grapples with the political fallout of his failed martial law declaration.

Forecast indicators 

Military escalation scenario 

• China launched its largest military exercises around Taiwan this year, featuring 90 navy and coast guard vessels around the island and near Japan, in response to Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te’s recent visit to Pacific nations and the U.S. China also announced seven restricted airspace zones, and Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense launched combat readiness drills in response. A U.S. military official called these exercises consistent with China’s recent behavior.
• The U.S. House of Representatives passed the National Defense Authorization Act, which includes funding allocated for key initiatives in the Indo-Pacific aimed at bolstering Taiwan’s defensive capabilities.
• Taiwan’s navy has allocated $55.52 million for the purchase of six minelayers by 2027 to bolster port security.
• Russian and Chinese officials met in Beijing to discuss continued defense cooperation as well as missile defense strategies.
• The U.S. Department of Defense’s Missile Defense Agency conducted its first-ever round of ballistic missile interception tests in Guam.
• A U.S. P-8A Poseidon reconnaissance aircraft was spotted flying over the Taiwan Strait following the conclusion of the PLA’s drills on Friday.
• Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense tracked 146 Chinese aircraft and 76 naval vessels around the island this week, with 67 aircraft crossing the Taiwan Strait median line.

Hybrid escalation scenario 

• China launched an antitrust investigation into the U.S. tech company Nvidia after the latter acquired Mellanox, a U.S.-Israeli network product supplier.
• Starting Jan. 1, 2025, the U.S. will increase tariffs to 50% on the imports of Chinese solar wafers and polysilicon, as well as adding 25% duties on Chinese tungsten imports.
• Salt Typhoon, a Chinese government-backed group, targeted the phone records of senior U.S. political figures, according to Anne Neuberger, the U.S. deputy national security advisor for cyber and emerging technology.
• Chinese policymakers may allow the yuan to weaken to mitigate the impacts from President-elect Donald Trump’s proposed tariffs against China.
• Prosecutors have arrested Kim Yong-hyun, who resigned last week as South Korean defense minister following Yoon’s declaration of martial law. Yoon has been banned from travelling out of the country after a failed impeachment proceeding against him. He faces the possibility of a second impeachment motion after members of his party joined calls by the opposition to remove him from office. Meanwhile, the U.S. has reaffirmed its commitment to its partnership with South Korea.
• South Korea’s Unification Ministry claims the continuous coverage of the South Korean political crisis by North Korean state-run media is an effort to bolster domestic support for North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.
• Taiwan’s opposition party proposed amendments to the country’s martial law regulations that, if passed, would allow lawmakers to more easily reject such a declaration.
• The U.S. Treasury sanctioned the Sichuan Silence Information Technology Company, a Chinese cybersecurity company, and one of its employees, Guan Tianfeng, for deploying potentially lethal malware in 2020.

Diplomatic de-escalation scenario 

• The U.S. and China have agreed to renew the U.S.-China Science and Technology Cooperation Agreement, which will now be in force for the following five years.
• China’s People’s Liberation Army hosted a delegation of Japanese military officers as part of a routine exchange program.
• Vietnamese Foreign Minister Bui Thanh Son met Chinese counterpart Wang Yi in Beijing to establish a “3+3” dialogue on defense, diplomacy, and public security. Wang called for progress in settling maritime disputes in the South China Sea.
• Chinese and Philippine law enforcement authorities cooperated in the arrest and deportation of 190 Chinese nationals from the Philippines in a joint crackdown on offshore gambling operations.
• A former Taiwanese lawmaker from the Kuomintang party, Wang Jin-pyng, proposed a new framework for cross-strait relations aimed at reducing tensions by maintaining separate governance but sharing “undivided sovereignty.” His proposal was heavily criticized by lawmakers from the ruling Democratic Progressive Party.
• Trump said he has been in communication with Chinese President Xi Jinping, with Xi vowing Beijing would firmly safeguard its interests and Trump inviting China to play an active role in brokering peace in Ukraine.
• President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has ruled out dispatching the Philippine navy to disputed South China Sea waters, claiming that the country will adhere to international rules and would not seek any military escalation of territorial disputes with China.
• Former Taiwanese President Ma Ying-jeou is preparing for a visit next week to mainland China to promote people-to-people exchanges.

United States

• FBI Director Christopher Wray announced plans to resign at the end of President Joe Biden’s term in January. President-elect Donald Trump has named Kash Patel as his choice to lead the agency.
• Biden issued a memorandum advising national security agencies to restructure certain strategies to better tackle the threat of deeper ties among Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran ahead of Trump’s inauguration in January.
• Luigi Mangione, a suspect in the shooting death of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson, was arrested in Pennsylvania. Thompson’s slaying brought to light widespread public anger focused on health insurance companies.
• Significance: It is unclear whether Biden’s memorandum will be implemented or rejected under Trump, but it points to efforts to structurally strengthen U.S. agencies to resist potential Trump reforms. This is of particular note considering Wray’s possible replacement by Patel, a skeptic of the FBI’s current mandate. Thompson’s death shows that even though politically motivated security threats may be less likely following the election, sporadic violent episodes motivated by structural grievances are still likely to occur.

Venezuela

• Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado expressed flexibility around the presidential inauguration date if it was not possible for Edmundo González, recognized by the U.S. and other countries as the winner of Venezuela’s election, to take office on Jan. 10.
• U.N. human rights monitors have partially resumed their activities in Venezuela after the government forced them to leave the country earlier this year.
• The Maduro administration is attempting to bolster tourism. The runway at Maiquetia International Airport has been expanded from 800 meters to 1,300 meters. There is also a plan to construct 10 hotels on La Tortuga Island.
• Significance: The political opposition is approaching the switch of power strategically. Although Jan. 10 is the constitutionally mandated inauguration date, an inauguration can happen any time. However, that date represents a significant turning point for Venezuela, and the population is likely to be deeply dissatisfied if Maduro tries to legitimize his presidency through force or undemocratic means. Maduro realizes he could lose political power, which is why he is taking action to jump-start the economy.

South Africa

• After factions in the African National Congress (ANC) tried to oust Minister of Basic Education Siviwe Gwaruber, a member of the Democratic Alliance (DA). John Steenhuisen, leader of the DA, said any attempt by the ANC to fire ministers from his party would “signal an end” to the Government of National Unity (GNU). This comes as the deadline for consultation on the Bela Bill, legislation that would give the federal government authority to regulate the language of education, approaches. President Cyril Ramaphosa has come under increased pressure from his party to fire Gwarube, who some in the ANC leadership accuse of disrupting the consultation process to delay the bill’s implementation. The bill has been the source of a rift between the ANC and DA for months.
• Significance: ANC and DA infighting points to potential political destabilization. Despite largely being able to overcome policy differences since the GNU’s formation in May, the Bela Bill illuminates fundamental ideological differences between the parties.