Weekly Forecast Monitor: Nov. 27, 2024

Summary 

The Russia/Ukraine conflict trended toward military escalation and hybrid escalation scenarios as Russia advanced in Kursk and Donetsk and attacked Kyiv with the largest drone strike of the war. Ukrainian drones targeted Russian energy infrastructure, and the U.K. enacted new sanctions against Russian commercial vessels.

Forecast indicators 

Military escalation scenario 

• Russian President Vladimir Putin said Russia will continue to test its newly developed intermediate-range ballistic missiles in attacks on Ukraine.
• Russian ground forces continued to advance, with one senior Ukrainian military official reporting they had recaptured 40% of the territory held by Ukrainian soldiers in Kursk since beginning a counteroffensive in September. A Russian media outlet reported that Moscow had captured approximately 91 square miles of additional ground inside Ukraine this week.
• U.S. President Joe Biden has asked Congress to approve $24 billion in aid to Ukraine before President-elect Donald Trump resumes office.
• North Korea is expanding production capacity at a factory that produces ballistic missiles used by Russia in Ukraine, according to analysis by the imaging company Planet Labs.
• Russia continued to strike cities across Ukraine, including a single attack by 188 drones launched against Kyiv and another that injured humanitarian aid workers in Mykolaiv
• Germany hosted a summit of defense ministers from Italy, Poland, France, and the United Kingdom to discuss continued support to Ukraine following Trump’s election. The group was dubbed the “E5” by British Defense Minister John Healy.
• An al-Houthi-linked company in Yemen has trafficked hundreds of Yemeni men to Russia under false promises of private sector employment and possible Russian citizenship, according to the Financial Times. After arriving, the Yemenis were forced to sign Russian language military enlistment contracts and sent to Ukraine.

Hybrid escalation scenario 

• British Minister for Intergovernmental Relations Patrick McFadden warned that Russia is trying to use artificial intelligence to conduct sophisticated cyberattacks against U.K. electricity infrastructure.
• The U.K. sanctioned 30 Russian commercial vessels it claimed were part of a “shadow fleet” helping Russia circumvent sanctions on fossil fuel exports.
• Ukrainian drones struck oil infrastructure in the western Russian city of Kaluga, over 300 miles from the Ukrainian border, causing explosions and a large fire. No casualties were reported.

Diplomatic de-escalation scenario

• South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol received a Ukrainian delegation to discuss support to Ukraine amid North Korean troop deployment to Russia. The Ukrainian delegation reportedly sought lethal aid, a request Yoon has so far declined. Polls indicate such a move would be unpopular with South Koreans.
• Trump’s incoming national security adviser, U.S. Rep. Michael Waltz (R-Florida), called for the war in Ukraine to be brought to a “responsible end” and reiterated Trump’s determination to end it.

Summary

Conflicts in the Middle East trended toward diplomatic de-escalation and military escalation scenarios as Israeli, Hezbollah, and Lebanese officials agreed to a U.S. proposal for a cease-fire. In response, Hamas declared it is prepared to cooperate on cease-fire efforts in Gaza. Iran agreed to conduct talks with European powers over its nuclear program and the conflicts in Gaza and Lebanon. Israel continued to press its campaign in northern Gaza.

Forecast indicators 

Military escalation scenario 

• Israel conducted numerous airstrikes in rapid succession across Beirut, killing dozens of Lebanese hours before Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Cabinet agreed to a U.S. truce proposal. In response, Hezbollah fired hundreds of rockets into Israel, after a series of strikes targeting its command centers in Beirut, prior to the cease-fire agreement.
• Dozens of Palestinians were killed in Gaza as Israel continued to press its offensive focused primarily in the north of the territory.
• Israeli soldiers killed two Palestinians, including a teenager, in the northern West Bank city of Ya’bad, saying the pair first attacked soldiers with explosives.

Hybrid escalation scenario 

• After the International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant for Netanyahu, British Foreign Secretary David Lammy said the U.K. would enact the warrant, following “due process” and respecting international law if the Israeli prime minister visited.

Diplomatic de-escalation scenario 

• Israel agreed to a truce proposed by the United States to end the war in Lebanon, beginning with a 60-day cease-fire to implement the stipulations of U.N. Security Council Resolution 1701, which ended the 2006 Israel-Hezbollah war in Lebanon.
• Hamas’ political bureau has declared it is prepared to discuss terms of a cease-fire in Gaza through Turkish and Qatari mediators.
• The Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs agreed to conduct talks with France, Germany, and the U.K. to discuss issues related to Iran’s nuclear program and the conflicts in Lebanon and Gaza. The discussions follow a resolution from the International Atomic Energy Agency, which has criticized Iran’s lack of transparency about its nuclear program.

Summary

Tensions in the Indo-Pacific trended toward hybrid escalation as U.S. President-elect Donald Trump threatened to impose additional tariffs on China, while the European Union is disputing Chinese tariffs at the World Trade Organization. Taiwanese President William Lai’s planned visit to diplomatic allies Tuvalu, Palau, and the Marshall Islands has drawn security concerns. Satellite imagery indicates North Korea is expanding a production facility that has produced intermediate-range missiles reportedly used against Ukraine.

Forecast indicators 

Military escalation scenario 

• China may use Lai’s upcoming Pacific trip as a pretext to conduct military drills around Taiwan, regional security officials told Lai is set to visit diplomatic allies Tuvalu, Palau, and the Marshall Islands with possible stopovers in Hawaii and Guam.
• Satellite imagery indicates North Korea is expanding a short-range missile manufacturing plant near Hamhung on the country’s east coast. Researchers said Russia has previously used those missiles against Ukraine.
• The U.S. plans to deploy missile units to Japan’s Nansei Islands and to the Philippines and aims to compile a military plan to respond to a possible Taiwan emergency, the Kyodo news agency reported.
• China deployed naval and air forces to shadow and monitor a U.S. Navy patrol aircraft that flew through the Taiwan Strait on Tuesday.
• A rebel group in Myanmar, the Kachin Independence Army, seized the northeastern town of Kanpaiti, home of a rare-earth mining operation vital to China’s critical minerals supply chain.
• The U.S. deployed the USS Minnesota, a nuclear-powered Virginia-class fast-attack submarine, to Guam, marking the first deployment of a vessel of this class to the territory.
• Indian Defense Minister Rajnath Singh and Japanese counterpart Gen Nakatani met during the ASEAN Defense Ministers’ Meeting-Plus in Vientiane, Laos, to discuss advancing bilateral agreements enhancing military interoperability.
• Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense tracked 34 Chinese aircraft and 23 naval vessels around the island this week, with 29 aircraft crossing the Taiwan Strait median line, Taiwan News reported.

Hybrid escalation scenario 

• China warned that Trump’s threat to add 10% to any tariffs imposed on Chinese imports as part of his plan to curtail illegal immigration and drug flows into the U.S. could start of a mutually destructive trade war between the countries.
• The European Union has brought a case to the World Trade Organization disputing Chinese tariffs against European brandy.
• The International Criminal Court’s prosecutor has stated he would seek an arrest warrant for Myanmar’s military leader, Min Aung Hlaing, for crimes against humanity against the Rohingya.
• Taiwan reported sighting a Chinese reconnaissance balloon over near the island, the first such report since April.

Diplomatic de-escalation scenario 

• Myanmar’s Ta’ang National Liberation Army has announced it would be willing to hold talks with the ruling military junta, with China as a stability guarantor.
• U.S. Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-Oregon) traveled to Taiwan to discuss Taiwan-U.S. relations, trade, and security.
• Foreign ministers of the G7 called for peace in the Taiwan Strait and in the South China Sea during their meeting in Fiuggi, Italy.

United States

• President-elect Donald Trump has nominated Scott Bessent, a hedge fund manager, to be treasury secretary. Bessent would be tasked with passing some of Trump’s biggest economic pledges, including sweeping tax cuts.
• U.S. District Court Judge Tanya Chutkan granted special counsel Jack Smith’s motion to drop the federal case against Trump over his alleged efforts to overturn the 2020 election result. She did so without prejudice, meaning the case could be reopened in the future.
• Trump has threatened to impose 25% tariffs on goods imported from Canada and Mexico, and an additional 10% tariffs on Chinese imports as soon as he takes power in an effort to curtail the illegal drug trade into the U.S. and illegal migration. The Mexican peso and Canadian dollar both fell following Trump’s announcement.
• Significance: Chutkan’s decision to pause the federal case against Trump, coupled with the Supreme Court’s immunity ruling earlier this year, will consolidate Trump’s power as most court cases against him have been paused or dropped, meaning no criminal cases against him will be pending during his tenure in office.

Venezuela

• President Nicolás Maduro is advocating for a law that would prohibit Venezuelans from supporting or approving criminal sanctions, blockades, military invasions, or any foreign interventions in Venezuela.
• Opposition leader Edmundo González said he is “morally prepared” for his inevitable arrest when he returns to Venezuela in January to assume the presidency.
• Venezuelan security forces have surrounded the Argentinian Embassy in Caracas, where six members of the opposition party are currently residing.
• Significance: Tensions in the country are escalating as the Jan. 10 inauguration nears, and if Maduro does not allow González to assume the presidency, Venezuela could be at a higher risk of political or security destabilization. Mass protests similar to those that occurred after the election in July could recur.

South Africa

• The Constitutional Court reserved judgment on a petition filed by opposition parties Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) and African Transformation Movement (ATM) to renew impeachment hearings against President Cyril Ramaphosa over 2020 corruption allegations after $500,000 in cash was found hidden at his Phala Phala farm. In 2022, Ramaphosa’s African National Congress party voted against his impeachment. The EFF and ATM argue Parliament failed to hold Ramaphosa accountable and have called for a full parliamentary investigation.
• Significance: Renewed impeachment hearings point to signs of political destabilization, especially as the Government of National Unity appears increasingly fragile. However, without support from larger parties in the unity government, the EFF and ATM are unlikely to succeed in impeaching Ramaphosa.