This week, the United States confirmed that North Korean troops were deployed to Russia, sparking condemnation from Ukraine’s allies. In the Indo-Pacific, the U.S. and Canada sent warships through the Taiwan Strait while India and China reached a preliminary agreement on diffusing border tensions. In the Middle East, Israel continued its push into northern Gaza and southern Lebanon while U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken met with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to push for a cease-fire following last week’s death of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar.
Weekly Forecast Monitor: Oct. 25, 2024
The Geopolitical Hotspots Monitor examines the outlook for key geopolitical hotspots around the world.
1 Russia/Ukraine Conflict
Summary
The Russia/Ukraine conflict trended toward military and hybrid escalation scenarios as the United States confirmed that North Korea had deployed troops to Russia and South Korea considered shipping lethal aid to Ukraine. The United States announced new sanctions on Chinese companies over material support for Russia’s war effort, the United Kingdom pledged a loan to Ukraine backed by frozen Russian assets, and Russia hosted the BRICS summit in Kazan.
Forecast indicators
Military escalation scenario
- U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin confirmed that North Korea has deployed soldiers to Russia. Reports on the number of North Korean forces vary: South Korean intelligence cited 1,500 special forces soldiers, while Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy claimed around 11,000 North Korean soldiers are training in Russia.
- Ukraine’s chief of military intelligence, Kyrylo Budanov, claimed North Korean soldiers are deployed to the Kursk region of Russia to participate in combat operations against Ukrainian forces holding Russian territory there. The United States has yet to confirm these reports. U.S. National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said North Koreans participating in attacks against Ukraine are “fair game” to be targeted by Ukrainian troops.
- Ukraine conducted a mandatory evacuation of thousands of civilians from Kupiansk in the Kharkiv region amid intense Russian shelling. Russia conducted missile and drone strikes against cities across Ukraine.
Hybrid escalation scenario
- The United Kingdom pledged to support Ukraine with a $2.93 billion loan for military aid. The loan will be backed by frozen Russian assets. British officials said they will release the funds as soon as possible but did not specify an exact date.
- The United States sanctioned three Chinese companies identified by the U.S. Treasury Department as producing and supplying drones to Russia for military use in Ukraine.
- Ukraine conducted drone strikes against alcohol distilleries in Russia, causing damage to infrastructure but no casualties.
Diplomatic de-escalation scenario
- Russian President Vladimir Putin hosted the BRICS summit in the eastern city of Kazan. While in attendance, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi called for peace negotiations between Russia and Ukraine.
- Norwegian Foreign Minister Espen Barth Eide and French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot endorsed the “Victory Plan” Zelenskyy announced last week. Eide said Norway supports eventual Ukrainian membership in NATO, and Barrot pledged to rally other nations behind Zelenskyy’s plan.
- During an in-person meeting with Putin, United Arab Emirates President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan expressed readiness to support peace efforts in Ukraine and pledged to continue mediating prisoner exchanges.
2 Middle East
Summary
Tensions in the Middle East trended toward military escalation and diplomatic de-escalation scenarios as Israeli operations continued across northern Gaza and southern Lebanon. The United States renewed its push for peace efforts in Gaza after the death of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, and Israel presented terms to the United States for a cease-fire in Lebanon.
Forecast indicators
Military escalation scenario
- Israeli and Hezbollah forces clashed on the ground near the towns of Aita Al-Shaab, Qaouzah, and Ramiya in southern Lebanon. Israel continued bombing Lebanon, particularly in Beirut and Tyre. Hezbollah conducted numerous rocket and drone strikes into Israel.
- Dozens of Palestinians were killed as Israel continued its offensive in northern Gaza. The U.N. announced a pause in its child polio vaccination campaign in northern Gaza due to the intensity of Israeli bombardment.
- The Terminal High Altitude Aerial Defense system promised by the United States following Iran’s Oct. 1 bombardment has arrived in Israel along with an estimated 100 U.S. troops to operate the system.
- Türkiye conducted dozens of airstrikes against Kurdish militants in Iraq and Syria following an attack against a defense company in Ankara that killed at least 4 people. The Turkish government claimed members of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) were responsible for the attack.
Hybrid escalation scenario
- Israel initiated a bombardment campaign targeting Qard al-Hasan, a financial institution and registered charity in Lebanon used by Hezbollah to conduct financial affairs and provide social services.
- Iran is increasing its use of the Jask oil terminal in the Gulf of Oman, which will increase its ability to export oil without using the Strait of Hormuz.
- Iran said it is planning joint naval exercises with Saudi Arabia in the Red Sea, which would represent unprecedented cooperation between the regional rivals. Saudi officials have yet to confirm whether the kingdom will participate.
- Israeli security forces arrested seven Israeli citizens accused of spying for Iran.
Diplomatic de-escalation scenario
- U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken met with Israeli Prime Minister Benajmin Netanyahu in Jerusalem following the death of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar. Blinken urged Netanyahu to capitalize on a string of recent Israeli victories to secure a hostage release deal and end the war in Gaza.
- Qatar will host American and Israeli mediators including CIA Director Bill Burns and Mossad Director David Barnea in Doha as the U.S. renews cease-fire efforts between Israel and Hamas.
- Israel presented to the United States its terms for a cease-fire in Lebanon. The conditions mirror U.N. Security Council Resolution 1701, which calls for the withdrawal of Israeli forces from Lebanon and a joint Lebanese/U.N. peacekeeping force to patrol the border. In addition, Israel is insisting on unrestricted access to Lebanese airspace and the ability to engage in “active enforcement” on the ground in Lebanon.
3 U.S./China/Indo-Pacific
Summary
Tensions in the Indo-Pacific trended toward a military escalation scenario as the U.S. confirmed North Korea sent troops to Russia to join in the fight against Ukraine, potentially deepening South Korea’s involvement in the conflict as well. The U.S. and Canada sent warships through the Taiwan Strait. The U.S. added six Chinese companies to its “Entity List” for their ties to Iran, the European Parliament condemned China‘s military activities around Taiwan, and China signaled de-escalation with India.
Forecast indicators
Military escalation scenario
- South Korea shared intelligence of North Korean special forces troops in Russia. Seoul summoned the Russian ambassador and sent officials to debrief NATO, and South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol said he is considering sending South Korean intelligence analysts to Ukraine and may send military aid to Ukraine in response, which would mark a significant policy shift.
- China held live-fire drills off the coast of Fujian province, facing Taiwan.
- North Korea installed new blockades along railways connecting to South Korea in an effort to further fortify border areas.
- Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense reported that China’s Liaoning aircraft carrier, used in last week’s “Joint Sword 2024-B” exercises, transited the Taiwan Strait.
- The U.S. and Canada sent two warships, the destroyer USS Higgins and the frigate HMCS Vancouver, through the Taiwan Strait in a freedom-of-navigation operation.
- Indonesian patrol ships drove away Chinese coast guard vessels twice in three days in a disputed area of the South China Sea.
- South Korea and Poland agreed to strengthen bilateral defense ties, with South Korea pledging further deliveries of military equipment to Poland.
- Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense tracked 72 Chinese aircraft and 42 naval vessels around the island, with 36 aircraft crossing the Taiwan Strait median line.
Hybrid escalation scenario
- Chinese Premier Li Qiang signed a decree that listed regulations on which Beijing is basing its export controls on dual-use items, which will go into effect Dec. 1.
- Taiwan rejected a demand issued by the government of South Africa last week requesting that Taiwan move its representation office out of Pretoria, saying it would violate a 1997 bilateral agreement.
- The European Parliament passed a resolution condemning China’s coercive activities around Taiwan and denounced Beijing’s misinterpretation of U.N. Resolution 2758.
- SVOLT Energy Technology, an affiliate of Chinese automaker Great Wall Motor, will end its EV battery production operations in Europe as of January due to ongoing trade escalations between the EU and China.
- The U.S. will add six Chinese companies to its export blacklist due to their role in supplying Iran’s military with components.
Diplomatic de-escalation scenario
- India and China agreed on a blueprint to disengage their respective troops along the Line of Actual Control, where four years ago soldiers on both sides were killed in a violent confrontation.
- German Chancellor Olaf Scholz visited India on a three-day trip aimed at increasing bilateral economic and defensive ties.
- The European Commission has signaled it would continue talks with China on EV trade even after tariffs are imposed next week.
4 Other Hotspots
United States
- The London-based Institute for Strategic Dialogue claimed Russia helped amplify disinformation around the U.S. government’s response to hurricanes Helene and Milton.
- Michigan and North Carolina dismissed two Republican-led lawsuits asking to deny Americans living overseas from voting.
- A man in Pennsylvania was charged with threatening to kill a poll worker after allegedly sending threatening messages to the employee.
- A man from Arizona was arrested and charged with terrorism after allegedly shooting at a Democratic Party campaign office in Phoenix three times in the past month.
- Significance: Instances of politically motivated violence against campaign and poll workers are increasing, in part due to disinformation spread online by domestic and foreign actors, which is likely to continue after the election.
Venezuela
- President Nicolás Maduro met with the presidents of Belarus, Türkiye, and the State of Palestine, as well as the prime minister of Ethiopia during the BRICS Summit in Kazan. The content of the discussions was not disclosed.
- Former Industry and Oil Minister Pedro Tellechea and several others have been arrested and accused of collaborating with U.S. intelligence services by delivering state-owned oil and gas company PDVSA’s “automated command and control system” to a company controlled by U.S. intelligence.
- Significance: Maduro is attempting to bolster the economy by collaborating with non-aligned countries. He also is attempting to quash rising dissent among Chavista leadership since the July presidential election.
South Africa
- President Cyril Ramaphosa called Russia a “valued ally” at a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin at this week’s BRICS summit in Kazan. Ramaphosa and the ANC’s continued support of Russia despite its invasion of Ukraine has angered the leadership of the Democratic Alliance, the second-largest party in the Government of National Unity (GNU).
- Significance: Divisions in the GNU regarding foreign policy demonstrate the growing fragility of the coalition.
‘The Global Connectivity Tracker examines the impact of geopolitical dynamics on key themes like trade, technology, and energy/climate.
United States
Geothermal
What Happened
The Biden administration has approved a geothermal energy project in Utah.
Significance/Outlook
This is a significant step forward for a technology that is friendly to the environment and is gaining momentum throughout the world. The project has the potential to generate up to 2 gigawatts of electricity once it is fully operational, enough to supply more than 2 million homes. Geothermal energy can help meet climate targets. Enhanced geothermal system, a new-generation technology will be used in this project to provide a huge, clean, domestic energy supply.
Cuba
Electricity
What Happened
Cuba’s electricity grid has suffered a series of failures, leaving virtually all of its residents without power for several days. The outage came as Tropical Storm Oscar hit the island, complicating efforts to restore power.
Significance/Outlook
The island’s power infrastructure is centered on Soviet-era oil-burning plants, which are operating well beyond their expected 30-year lifespans. After four days of off-and-on blackouts, technicians said they had restored power to most of Havana but that outlying provinces remained in the dark. Shortages of fuel and overdue maintenance have plagued the island’s electrical system for years, with blackouts becoming more frequent. The recent electricity shortages caused school and business closures and exacerbated water and food scarcity issues.
Saudi Arabia
Energy Transition
What Happened
Amin Nasser, the CEO of Saudi state oil company Aramco, called for a new plan to transition from fossil fuels to clean energy sources that focuses on Asia.
Significance/Outlook
“Transition Plan 2.0” emphasizes prioritizing Asia and the Global South using strategies that balance sustainability goals with growing energy demands and economic development needs. Nasser criticized current transition efforts as being “far slower, far less equitable, and far more complicated than many expected.” He proposed a flexible, multi-dimensional plan focused on reducing emissions systematically and cost-effectively while striving to address the security, affordability, and sustainability requirements of all nations. He also warned against unrealistic expectations of a sharp decline in oil demand, stressing the importance of conventional energy sources to meet future demands and avoid potential shortages that could harm global energy security.
Iran
Oil
What Happened
Iran is intensifying its efforts to bypass the Strait of Hormuz by loading crude oil into the Jask oil terminal.
Significance/Outlook
The development at the Goreh-Jask pipeline allows Iran to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic chokepoint and a frequent point of tension, especially amid growing hostilities with Israel. Recent activity at Jask includes the loading of approximately 2 million barrels of crude by the supertanker Dune from Sept. 9 to 19, marking the first substantial loading operation since trial runs in 2021, as reported by TankerTrackers.com. By enhancing the operational capacity of Jask, Iran aims to gain greater flexibility and security by diversifying its export routes and lessening its reliance on a single, vulnerable passageway.
United Arab Emirates
Climate
What Happened
UAE energy company Masdar is planning a major increase of renewable energy assets, with the goal of achieving 100 gigawatts of solar and wind assets by 2030.
Significance/Outlook
Masdar is looking to secure additional business partnerships and will continue to buy renewable assets worldwide. Masdar anticipates having a market share of up to 35% of the renewables power capacity in the Middle East by the end of the decade, 20% of the clean energy capacity in Europe, and up to 25% of the capacity in the United States. Masdar is one of the world’s fastest-growing renewable energy firms and is a global clean energy pioneer developing and deploying solar, wind, geothermal, battery storage, and green hydrogen technologies to speed the energy transition and assist the world in reaching net-zero emissions.