Weekly Forecast Monitor: Oct. 18, 2024

Summary 

The Russia/Ukraine conflict trended toward military escalation and diplomatic de-escalation scenarios, as Russian forces continued their advance in Donetsk and pushed back against Ukrainian’s Kursk offensive. Ukrainian forces made progress around Kharkiv, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy promoted his “Victory Plan” to his country’s parliament and to leaders of the EU and NATO at a summit in Brussels.

Forecast indicators 

Military escalation scenario 

• Russian forces advanced near Toretsk in Donetsk and captured 100 square kilometers (about 38.5 square miles) of territory in their counteroffensive against Ukrainian forces in Russia’s Kursk region.
• The Ukrainian and South Korean governments claim North Korean soldiers are participating in combat operations with Russian forces in Ukraine. Zelenskyy said thousands of additional North Korean soldiers are currently training in Russia and will be prepared for deployment to Ukraine by Nov. 1.
• Ukrainian forces reported capturing roughly 4 square kilometers (1.5 square miles) and inflicting numerous Russian casualties in the northeast Kharkiv region.

Hybrid escalation scenario 

• The U.S. has sanctioned Chinese companies producing drones that Russia has deployed on the battlefield, marking the first time the U.S. has sanctioned Chinese companies for directly supplying Russia with weapons.
• Ukraine is requesting a monitoring force from the International Maritime Organization in Odesa following repeated Russian strikes against ports in the city.
• Ukrainian officials are bracing for massive strikes from Russia against energy infrastructure as colder weather sets in between October 2024 and April 2025.
  The city of Kherson lost power after significant bombardment by Russian forces.
• Ukraine denied supplying drones, other weapons, and intelligence to rebels fighting Russian-backed Malian national forces and Russian mercenaries.
• Moldovan authorities have disrupted a training pipeline they claim was run by Russia that facilitated the training of Moldovan citizens on civil unrest tactics.
• The U.K. sanctioned 22 Russian vessels that have been actively circumventing sanctions on Russian energy exports.

Diplomatic de-escalation scenario 

• Zelenskyy presented his five-point “Victory Plan” to the Ukrainian parliament and allied leaders in Brussels. The plan includes five public points, including the promise of NATO membership for Ukraine, long-range weapons, replacement of U.S. troops in Europe with Ukrainian forces, protection of Ukraine’s natural resources, and an (unspecified) non-nuclear deterrent deployed inside Ukraine, along with classified annexes.

Summary

Tensions in the Middle East trended toward military and hybrid escalation scenarios as Israel killed Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, continued its invasion of southern Lebanon, intensified its campaign in northern Gaza, and weighed retaliatory options against Iran. The European Union placed new sanctions on Iran, and the United Kingdom considered sanctions against senior Israeli leaders. The United States threatened to cut weapons shipments to Israel unless humanitarian conditions in Gaza are improved.

Forecast indicators 

Military escalation scenario 

• Israeli soldiers killed Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar, the primary planner of the Oct. 7 attacks, in a firefight in Gaza.
• Israel has indicated that it will not strike Iranian oil or nuclear sites, in seeming acquiescence to U.S. escalation concerns. However, the U.S. expects Israel to strike military targets inside Iran.
• Dozens of Palestinians were killed in Gaza as Israel continues high-tempo operations in the northern portion of the enclave, where an estimated 400,000 people, most of whom have been previously displaced, have been ordered to evacuate.
• Israeli forces engaged in ground clashes with Hezbollah and conducted airstrikes across southern Lebanon and in Beirut. Hezbollah said the war has entered a “new phase.” Over 1 million people have been displaced in Lebanon since the beginning of Israel’s invasion, including 400,000 children.
• Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called on United Nations peacekeeping forces to evacuate from southern Lebanon after reports that they came under fire from Israeli soldiers.
• The U.S. has struck underground and fortified al-Houthi rebel positions in Yemen using B2 stealth bombers, the first time the U.S. has publicly acknowledged use of the B2 aircraft against Houthis.

Hybrid escalation scenario 

• The European Union has enacted new sanctions against three Iranian airlines and members of the Iranian security apparatus, including the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, over weapons shipments to Russia.
• The United Kingdom is considering levying sanctions against Israeli National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir and Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich over comments supporting the starvation of Palestinians and support to Israeli settlers in the West Bank.

Diplomatic de-escalation scenario 

• U.S. President Joe Biden expressed optimism over the possibility of a cease-fire and hostage release deal in Gaza following Sinwar’s death. Biden is dispatching U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken to Israel to renew negotiation efforts.
• In a joint letter signed by U.S. Secretary of Defense Loyd Austin and Secretary of State Antony Blinken, the United States has threatened to cease weapons shipments to Israel if it does not make substantial improvements in humanitarian aid delivery to Gaza within 30 days.
• Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant informed families of Hamas hostages that he does not foresee a hostage release deal as currently possible. Gallant said that the leadership of Hamas has “hardened” its position, hoping the expansion of the war with Hezbollah and Iran will shift the status quo in its favor.

Summary

Tensions in the Indo-Pacific trended toward a military escalation scenario, as Beijing conducted large-scale naval exercises around Taiwan aimed at rehearsing a possible blockade. The U.S. and its allies conducted joint naval exercises around the Philippines, and North Korea delivered on last week’s pledges of destroying transport links with South Korea. The U.K. is set to send its foreign minister to China in an effort to renew ties. U.S. officials warned of widespread Chinese espionage.

Forecast indicators 

Military escalation scenario 

• China conducted its most intense military exercises this year around Taiwan, dubbed “Joint Sword 2024-B,” which included heavy involvement of the Chinese coast guard, its Liaoning aircraft carrier, more than 150 aircraft, and other military assets within Taiwan’s contiguous waters in what appeared to be a demonstration of China’s ability to blockade the island.
• Taiwan’s navy deployed and readied its Haifeng Brigade’s mobile antiship missiles in response to China’s exercises.
• South Korea’s intelligence agency estimates that 12,000 North Korean troops have been sent to Russia and will fight alongside Russian forces in Ukraine starting on November 1st.
• North Korea amended its constitution to drop its previous goal of reunification with the South and destroyed road and railroad links to South Korea after its announcement last week that it wanted to see a complete separation between the countries.
• Taiwan signed contracts with the United States to purchase 1,000 drones to increase its asymmetric warfare capabilities.
• Taiwan’s military will upgrade its communications systems to NATO’s “Link 16,” aiming to integrate F-16 fighter jets and M1 Abrams tanks.
• The U.S. conducted large-scale joint exercises with the Philippines and other allies near Taiwan and elsewhere in the South China Sea after China’s Joint Sword 2024-B exercises.
• The Chinese coast guard ordered a Japanese fishing ship to navigate away from the contested Senkaku/Diaoyu islands in the East China Sea.
• China and Thailand conducted joint counterterrorism exercises in Kunming, China.
• Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense tracked 61 Chinese aircraft and 22 naval vessels around the island, with 48 aircraft crossing the Taiwan Strait median line. These numbers exclude military assets deployed during the Joint Sword 2024-B exercises.

Hybrid escalation scenario 

• U.S. officials raised concerns of widespread Chinese espionage in the U.S. and its allies.
• India was hit by a large-scale ransomware attack targeting the government, small businesses, and the health care industry. The attack has not yet been attributed.
• According to customs data, China’s exports to Russia reached $11.25 billion in September, a record high. Chinese exports have been filling the gaps left by departed Western companies.
• For the first time, the U.S. sanctioned two Chinese companies accused of directly manufacturing and supplying drones to the Russian military.
• The South African government has asked the Taiwanese delegation in the country to relocate its representative office out of the capital, Pretoria, in a move indicating the government is seeking closer ties with China and its larger economy.
• The Cyber Security Association of China called on Beijing to launch an investigation of U.S. chipmaker Intel’s products, warning of threats to China’s national security.

Diplomatic de-escalation scenario 

• British Foreign Secretary David Lammy is traveling to Beijing in an attempt to renew Sino-British relations, stressing the importance of cooperation in economic and climate-related fields.

United States

• A Georgia judge blocked a new ruling backed by the campaign of Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump to hand-count ballots in the November elections.
• The U.S. Secret Service is calling on local law enforcement and state authorities to do more to prevent the escalation of violence.
• Federal Emergency Management Agency workers briefly halted their efforts in North Carolina after it was reported that armed militias had threatened violence. Those reports were later discounted.
• Significance: The Hurricane Helene case has demonstrated the transition that can happen from political tensions and divisions to a tangible security threat, fueled by disinformation aimed at stoking these divisions further.

Venezuela

• President Nicolás Maduro dismissed the heads of the country’s intelligence services — the civilian branch (SEBIN) and the military branch (DGCIM) — hours before the U.N. Independent International Fact-Finding Mission published its Oct. 15 report. The findings of the report were that the Chavista government is guilty of crimes against humanity during the election season.
• Venezuelan Attorney General Tarek William Saab was reprimanded by the government after he accused Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Chilean President Gabriel Boric of being recruited by the CIA.
• Significance: The restructuring among Chavista leadership speaks to an effort to obtain increased loyalty to Maduro.

South Africa

• On Oct. 13, South Africa reached a milestone 200th day without a load-shedding incident disrupting electricity supply. Gauteng province, which contains Johannesburg and Pretoria, continues to face water shortages and restrictions, largely due to overconsumption and faulty infrastructure that cause leaks.
• Significance: Despite increased business confidence due to the formation of the Government of National Unity and reduced load-shedding by the country’s troubled national electricity supplier, resource scarcity and mismanagement still present a threat to South African stabilization.