Weekly Forecast Monitor: Oct. 11, 2024

Summary 

Tensions in the Middle East trended toward military escalation and diplomatic de-escalation scenarios as Israel expanded its troop presence in Lebanon while it continued intensive operations in Gaza and conducted an airstrike in Syria. The United States publicly backed Israel’s invasion of southern Lebanon, and a senior Hezbollah official voiced support for a cease fire with Israel.

Forecast indicators 

Military escalation scenario 

• The U.S. State Department has publicly endorsed Israel’s campaign in southern Lebanon after previously proposing two separate cease-fire initiatives following the initial invasion.
• Israeli domestic security officials arrested five Arab-Israeli citizens who were allegedly planning a car bomb operation in Tel Aviv in the name of the Islamic State terrorist group.
• Israel expanded its ground operations in Lebanon with the commitment of an additional division, as the Israeli air force bombed numerous positions in Beirut and southern Lebanon.
• Hezbollah forces continued to clash with Israeli soldiers in Lebanon as the militant group sent rocket barrages into Israel.
• Numerous civilians were reported killed in an Israeli airstrike in Damascus that targeted a senior Hezbollah member. It remains unclear whether the Hezbollah member was killed.
• Dozens of Palestinians were killed in Israeli airstrikes across Gaza as Israeli forces and Hamas militants continued to clash.
• Israeli security forces arrested 45 Palestinians in cities across the West Bank.

Hybrid escalation scenario 

• Israel has not shared plans with U.S. President Joe Biden on its anticipated retaliation for Iran’s recent missile barrage, although Biden is urging Israel not to strike Iranian oil or nuclear infrastructure.
• Gulf partners of the United States are urging Washington to dissuade Israel from striking Iranian oil or nuclear sites. Iran has threatened retaliation against any Gulf state whose airspace is used to facilitate such an attack.

Diplomatic de-escalation scenario 

• Naim Qassem, the top Hezbollah official following the death of Hassan Nasrallah, endorsed efforts by a pro-Hezbollah Lebanese lawmaker who called for a cease-fire with Israel without the precondition of a cease-fire in Gaza being reached first.
• Iranian Foreign Minister Abas Araghchi called for a cease-fire in Lebanon and Gaza during a visit to Damascus without specifying preconditions.

Summary

Tensions in the Russia/Ukraine conflict trended toward military escalation and diplomatic de-escalation scenarios, as Russia continues its advance in Donetsk and Ukraine conducted strikes inside Russian territory. Ukraine expressed its intentions for a peace summit before the end of the year that would include participation by Russia.

Forecast indicators 

Military escalation scenario 

• Russian forces have advanced near the city of Toretsk in Donetsk, after recently capturing Vuhledar.
• The South Korean Ministry of Defense reported that North Korean troops are most likely fighting alongside Russians in Ukraine and have been killed in combat.
• Ukraine conducted strikes against weapons depots and an airfield inside Russian territory.
• Russia conducted large-scale drone and missile attacks against cities across Ukraine.
• Thirteen countries will participate in NATO’s annual nuclear exercises later this year, the alliance’s first since Russia’s shift to a more aggressive posture.

Hybrid escalation scenario 

• Russia repeatedly targeted civilian cargo ships in port in the Black Sea city of Odesa.
• Ukraine sentenced two hackers convicted in absentia for conducting over 5,000 cyberattacks. The hackers are members of a group tied to Russian security services.

Diplomatic de-escalation scenario 

• Ukraine’s ambassador to Türkiye, Vasyl Bodnar, said Ukraine wants a  peace summit to be held by year’s end and that Russia should attend. Bodnar also noted that in such a scenario, Ukraine would not engage in bilateral talks with Russia. Both Russia and Ukraine have pointed to India as a potential summit host.

Summary

Tensions in the Indo-Pacific trended toward a military escalation scenario, as North Korea announced it would strengthen fortifications along its border with the South. The U.S. and its allies conducted naval exercises in the northern Philippines, and Chinese and Philippine vessels clashed in the South China Sea. China imposed new tariffs against the EU, and U.S. officials uncovered a new Chinese hacking group’s activity.

Forecast indicators 

Military escalation scenario 

• North Korea announced it will be cutting off roads and railways connecting to South Korea and building up existing fortifications on the northern side of the border.
• South Korea and the Philippines signed a strategic partnership agreement, increasing their defense cooperation.
• Armed forces personnel from the U.S., the Philippines, Australia, Canada, France, and Japan took part in joint naval exercises off the coast of Luzon Island.
• Chinese coast guard ships fired water cannons at Philippine vessels resupplying fishermen stationed near the contested Scarborough Shoal.
• Chinese and Russian navy ships took part in antisubmarine exercises in the Pacific as part of a joint patrol.
• India approved plans to construct two nuclear-powered submarines to add to its navy.
• Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense tracked 111 Chinese aircraft and 48 naval vessels around the island, with 72 aircraft crossing the Taiwan Strait median line.

Hybrid escalation scenario 

• China’s foreign ministry sanctioned three U.S. military contracting firms and 10 executives for their links to arms sales to Taiwan, including Edge Autonomy Operations LLC, Huntingdon Ingalls Industries Inc., and Skydio Inc.
• A new Chinese hacking group, dubbed “Salt Typhoon,” conducted a series of cyberattacks aimed at gathering intelligence from U.S. broadband providers and from federally authorized wiretapping networks used by the U.S. government.
• Beijing announced the imposition of tariffs ranging from 30.6% to 39% on imports of European liquors in response to the EU’s tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles imposed last week.
• South Korea launched an antidumping investigation into imports of Chinese steel plates, primarily used in shipbuilding.

Diplomatic de-escalation scenario 

• Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Maldivian President Mohamed Muizzu signed a partnership agreement aimed at fostering closer economic and security cooperation.
• China agreed to remove trade barriers to imports of Australian lobster by the end of the year after three years of trade tensions.
• Chinese Premier Li Qiang called for greater economic cooperation between China and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), receiving pushback from the Philippines, which regularly clashes with China in the South China Sea.
• Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and Chinese Premier Li Qiang agreed to increase cooperation on matters of mutual interest, during a sideline conversation at the ASEAN summit.

United States

• Hurricane Milton made landfall in Florida as a Category 3 storm, which flooded the state and left more than 3 million people without power. This comes a week after Hurricane Helene ravaged North Carolina. Multiple accounts of misinformation and disinformation surrounding the federal government’s response and actions followed in the wake of that storm.

South Africa

• ActionSA’s Nasiphi Moya became the mayor of Tshwane, a Gauteng municipality containing Pretoria, replacing Democratic Alliance councilor Cilliers Brink. Moya has been acting as mayor since late September when Brink was removed by a vote of no-confidence led by the African National Congress. The Tshwane mayoral dynamic illustrates the fragility of local alliances beyond the context of a new and relatively stable national coalition government, suggesting that the South African national coalition is not entirely reflective of provincial and local party relationships.