Weekly Forecast Monitor: Sept. 20, 2024

Summary

Conflict in the Middle East trended toward military and hybrid escalation scenarios as an Israeli sabotage operation killed over two dozen and wounded thousands in Lebanon and Syria, and Israel said it would expand military operations against Hezbollah. The U.S. continues to engage with Egyptian and Qatari mediators over a cease-fire and hostage release deal. U.S. security agencies confirmed Iranian hackers previously sent stolen information to campaign staffers working for President Joe Biden.

Forecast indicators 

Military escalation scenario 

• Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said Israel will expand its war with Hezbollah, with one objective being the return of Israeli citizens displaced from their homes in the north by Hezbollah attacks. Israel began intense bombardment of southern Lebanon.
• Israel’s domestic security service, the Shin Bet, said it foiled a Hezbollah assassination attempt against an unnamed former senior Israeli security official.
• A missile launched by Yemen’s al-Houthi rebels detonated in central Israel, causing no casualties. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed retaliation.
• The U.S. announced it had killed four senior Islamic State leaders, including its head of operations in Iraq, during an early-September U.S.-Iraqi raid in Anbar province.

Hybrid escalation scenario 

• A sabotage operation in Lebanon and Syria involving the simultaneous remote detonation of explosive charges planted in thousands of mobile communication devices used by Hezbollah members killed at least 30 people and wounded thousands more, including Mojtaba Amani, the Iranian ambassador to Lebanon. U.S. officials confirmed that Israeli intelligence and security agencies had infiltrated Hezbollah supply lines and placed the explosives. Israel has not claimed responsibility or formally commented on the incident.
• Iran and Russia are set to formally enter a strategic partnership agreement at the upcoming BRICS summit in Moscow.
• U.S. security officials confirmed Iranian hackers sent information stolen from former President Donald Trump’s campaign to Biden campaign staffers.

Diplomatic de-escalation scenario 

• Saudi Arabia has stated it will not normalize relations with Israel without the establishment of a Palestinian state with a capital of East Jerusalem.
• The U.S. is doubtful that a cease-fire and hostage release deal over Gaza will happen this year following engagements with Egyptian and Qatari mediators.

Summary

Tensions in the Indo-Pacific trended toward a military escalation scenario as a Chinese aircraft carrier was spotted sailing close to Japan. Australia said it intends to boost its naval footprint in the South China Sea. Beijing imposed new trade barriers against Taiwan, and the U.S. disrupted a new Chinese hacking group operating in the U.S. The U.S. government faced social media company TikTok in court.

Forecast indicators 

Military escalation scenario 

• A Chinese aircraft carrier and two destroyers sailed through Japan’s contiguous maritime zone for the first time, 24 miles from Japan’s coastline near the disputed Senkaku Islands.
• Australian Ambassador to the Philippines HK Yu announced Australia will increase its maritime cooperative activities with the Philippine navy in an effort to increase its defense capabilities in the South China Sea.
• North Korean leader Kim Jong-Un oversaw the test launch of a new ballistic missile, reportedly capable of delivering a large conventional warhead.
• The U.S. State Department approved the delivery of a $228 million military aid package to Taiwan, containing spare parts for maintenance of the F-16V fighter aircraft in use by Taiwan.
• Two Chinese coast guard vessels conducted joint exercises with Russia’s coast guard in the Northern Pacific.
• Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense tracked 75 Chinese aircraft and 42 naval vessels around the island, with 51 aircraft crossing the Taiwan Strait median line.

Hybrid escalation scenario 

• U.S. Sens. Mitt Romney and Jim Risch were among 11 Republican senators who introduced the “STRATEGIC Act of 2024” bill aimed at providing concrete strategies to counter Chinese influence domestically and in the Indo-Pacific.
• The U.S. government faced TikTok in federal court. The social media company is challenging a law requiring it to change ownership or be banned from the U.S. by next January.
• Beijing will end tariff exemptions on several agricultural and aquacultural imports from Taiwan, blaming Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te for damaging cross-strait cooperation.
• The U.S. imposed new sanctions on the Beijing Research Institute of Automation for Machine Building Industry for supplying equipment used to test Pakistani ballistic missile capabilities.
• Vietnam is launching an anti-dumping investigation into imports of Chinese coil steel.
• The U.S. Department of Justice revealed it had disrupted a major Chinese hacking group operating in the U.S., nicknamed “Flax Typhoon,” which aimed to collect intelligence on the U.S. and its allies.
• A senior executive from Taiwan’s Formosa Plastics Group has been barred from leaving the mainland after he landed in Shanghai two weeks ago.

Diplomatic de-escalation scenario 

• The EU and China failed to come to an agreement on imposing tariffs on Chinese EVs but will continue to negotiate in advance of the European Commission’s vote next week.
• China agreed to a deal to gradually resume the imports of Japanese seafood after having banned it in response to Japan’s decision to release water from the Fukushima nuclear power plant last year.
• Military leaders from the U.S. and China resumed talks aimed at keeping communication open regarding issues faced by both countries after a two-year suspension.
• China appointed a new ambassador to Vietnam, as Vietnamese President To Lam hailed relations with China being a “top priority,” emphasizing the traditional friendship between the countries.

Summary 

The Russia/Ukraine conflict trended toward military and hybrid scenarios as Russia made advances in Donetsk and continued its counteroffensive in Kursk. A Ukrainian drone strike destroyed a large weapons depot northwest of Moscow. Denmark pledged further F-16 deliveries to Ukraine, and the EU pledged to support energy and humanitarian initiatives in Ukraine using frozen Russian assets.

Forecast indicators 

Military escalation scenario 

• U.S. and U.K. officials disclosed concerns that Russia is assisting Iran in advancing its nuclear weapons program in exchange for boosting Russian arsenals with ballistic missiles and other weapons.
• A Ukrainian drone attack destroyed a weapons depot in Russia’s Tver region northwest of Moscow.
• Denmark pledged to supply additional F-16s to Ukraine by the end of this year. The Danish government has publicly pledged 19 F-16s to Ukraine but has not disclosed the number of aircraft transferred so far.
• Russia made advances in Donetsk, capturing the town of Ukrainsk and continuing its indiscriminate bombing of Ukrainian cities.
• The Russian counteroffensive in the Kursk region recaptured several small villages from Ukrainian forces.
• Russian President Vladimir Putin has ordered defense officials to expand the Russian army to 1.5 million active-duty soldiers. If successful, Russia would have the world’s second-largest army after China.

Hybrid escalation scenario 

• The European Parliament is pushing the EU to enact an embargo against liquified natural gas from Russia, in addition to sanctions against Gazprom and other Russian energy companies.
• EU Commission President Ursula Von der Leyen announced a 39 billion euro loan to Ukraine during a visit to Kyiv. Frozen Russian assets will be used as collateral.
• Social media company Meta banned RT and other Russian state media outlets from its platforms.
• Russia continued attacks against Ukrainian energy infrastructure, causing significant damage to water and power facilities in the northeast region of Sumy.

Diplomatic de-escalation scenario 

• Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy announced he will present a peace plan during a trip to Washington D.C. scheduled for later this month.

United States

• The U.S. Federal Reserve cut interest rates by half a percentage point. A man was arrested in Florida in an apparent assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump. Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine deployed state troopers to Springfield after the city received several hoax bomb threats tied to rumors regarding immigrants in the city. These events will likely contribute to polarization along political lines ahead of November elections.

Venezuela

• The EU recognized the opposition presidential candidate, Edmundo González, as the democratically elected president of Venezuela. Three Americans, two Spaniards, and a Czech citizen were arrested and accused of attempting to assassinate President Nicolás Maduro on Sept. 14. Venezuelan Minister of Interior, Justice and Peace Diosdado Cabello announced the arrests and showed several images of confiscated rifles. One of the foreign nationals is a U.S. Navy Seal. A fourth U.S. citizen was arrested Sept. 17. The United States, Spain, and the Czech Republic all denied involvement and are continuing to push for a peaceful transition of power.

South Africa

• Residents of Gauteng province, which contains Johannesburg, are consuming more water than Rand Water, South Africa’s biggest water utility, can provide. The entity’s poorly maintained weak infrastructure is a leading contributor to the shortage, with almost half of the water supplies meant for Johannesburg lost to leaks or theft. Level 1 water restrictions were implemented in some Gauteng Municipalities. Water scarcity in South Africa’s economic hub can disrupt commercial activities, reduce business confidence, and create competition over water, pointing to signs of economic and potentially security destabilization.