Global Hotspots: Examining the consequences of Brazil’s first round of elections

On today’s episode, Milos Maggiore, Jared Jeter, and Andrew Loftesnes unpack the results from Brazil’s first round of elections. Elsewhere, in the Middle East, Saudi Arabia launched an air campaign in support of a Yemeni government counteroffensive against the Houthi rebels, while the U.S. is reportedly preparing for a possible resumption of large-scale strikes against Iran. In the Indo-Pacific, EU trade officials visited Beijing for a last round of trade talks before the EU’s October summit, while the U.S. and China have discussed visiting each other’s nuclear sites. In the Russia/Ukraine conflict, Russia intensified its bombing campaign against civilian targets while the EU sanctioned over 1,000 Russian entities. In the Americas, the U.S. intercepted 90 shipments of biodiesel bound for Cuba that broke through the U.S.’s blockade of the island.

– Explore the Global Forecast Monitor here. 

– Register for a 28-day free trial of the Geopolitical Forecasting Platform here.

Photo: Supporters of Brazil’s President and presidential candidate Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, of the Workers’ Party (PT) attend a campaign motorcade in Ceilandia, Distrito Federal, Brazil on October 9, 2026. Lula da Silva, who has risen from the political ashes several times, is heading to a runoff election against right-wing senator Flavio Bolsonaro on October 25, after a shock second-place finish in the first-round vote. (Photo by Evaristo SA / AFP via Getty Images)