Weekly Forecast Monitor: Nov. 21, 2025

The Russia/Ukraine war trended toward diplomatic de-escalation as the U.S. sent a delegation to discuss a 28-point peace plan with Ukrainian officials in Kyiv. The plan reportedly calls for Ukraine to cede land not currently occupied by Russian forces. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy met with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in Ankara on Nov. 19 to discuss peace efforts. Russia continued its bombardment of Ukrainian cities, killing at least 31 people in a strike in Ternopil. Poland blamed Russia for an explosion that damaged a rail line connecting Warsaw and the Ukrainian border and announced the deployment of 10,000 soldiers within Polish borders to protect critical infrastructure. Russia denied responsibility for the explosion.

The Middle East trended toward military escalation as Israeli bombardment of Gaza killed at least 33 Palestinians. Meanwhile, the U.N. Security Council voted in favor of a resolution to implement Trump’s 20-point peace plan. The Israel Defense Forces conducted an airstrike against what it claimed was Hamas targets in a Palestinian refugee camp in Lebanon, killing at least 13 people, along with a series of airstrikes against Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon. During a visit to the White House, bin Salman said Saudi Arabia will not join the Abraham Accords without the recognition of a Palestinian state. During the visit, Trump designated Saudi Arabia as a major non-NATO ally and agreed to the sale of F-35 fighter jets.

The Indo-Pacific trended toward diplomatic de-escalation as the U.S. removed tariffs on half of all imports from the Philippines. The Netherlands relinquished control of Nexperia, a Chinese chipmaker, in exchange for guarantees of continued European access to legacy microchips. China announced it was reimposing a suspension on Japanese seafood imports as tensions over Taiwan between Beijing and Tokyo persist, while Chinese armed forces conducted drills near disputed islands with Japan. The U.S. confirmed the sale of medium-range air defenses to Taiwan, the second arms sale to Taiwan in a week. Taiwan announced it would conduct a review of its export list for dual-use items and technologies in order to comply with international arrangements that may add pressure on Chinese access to them.

United States

Trump signed legislation ordering the Justice Department to release files pertaining to late financier and convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein. The move follows months of resistance from the president and members of the Republican Party. Forecast – political stabilization scenario

Democratic Republic of the Congo

The DRC’s government signed a framework deal with the M23 rebel group that would end fighting in the country’s east. Officials from the United States and Qatar, which facilitated the talks, praised the agreement but said many steps in the peace process lie ahead. Forecast –security stabilization scenario

Mexico

Clashes between anti-government protesters and police in Mexico City injured 120 people, including 100 police officers, Mexican officials said. The demonstrators were protesting government inaction on organized crime after the assassination of vocal cartel critic and Uruapan Mayor Carlos Manzo. Forecast – political destabilization scenario

United States/Tariffs

Trump announced the U.S. would be removing tariffs on imports of beef, coffee, and tropical fruits among other commodities. The action could bring down prices for those imports, but a BBC analysis said the cuts are unlikely to lower prices on groceries as a whole.

Forecast – Trade Enhancement Scenario: The decision will benefit trading partners such as India, the Philippines, and Latin American countries , which export significant food commodities the U.S. does not produce domestically. This comes as the Trump administration has announced a shift in its priority to increase domestic affordability while the Supreme Court is weighing arguments on the legality of the tariffs enacted under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act.

China/Africa/Renewables

A Chinese state-owned power construction company is expanding internationally by focusing on renewable energy projects in Africa. PowerChina has invested $3.5 billion into solar and wind projects in South Africa. It also operates Zambia’s largest single-unit solar system, the 100 MW Kabwe Solar Project, and an Ethiopian wind farm. PowerChina is also developing hydropower projects.

Forecast – Energy Enhancement Scenario: PowerChina is making a significant contribution to the energy transition in Africa with its substantial investment in renewable energy projects. The company’s plan for expansion involves a strong emphasis on large-scale advancements in the fields of solar, wind, and hydropower.

South America/Electric Vehicles

The market for electric vehicles in South America is rapidly growing. Chinese manufacturers like BYD, Geely, and GWM dominate the market with low prices. China enjoys a logistical advantage with Peru’s new port of Chancay, which reduces trans-Pacific shipping schedules. As trade restrictions climb in the U.S. and Europe importing Chinese EVs into South America becomes easier.

Forecast – Trade Enhancement Scenario: South American markets are rapidly showing their preference for Chinese-made EVs over U.S.-made ones. As tensions with the U.S. over trade restrictions and potential military intervention in Venezuela remain high, China is likely to continue capitalizing on these rising tensions and push for higher EV sales moving into the new year.