This week, in the Middle East the U.S. presented the U.N. Security Council with a draft resolution advancing the implementation of the “Board of Peace” as part of the Israel/Gaza ceasefire agreement, while Iran stated it would not engage in negotiations with the U.S. so long as Washington backs Israel. In the Indo-Pacific, China has started to remove tariffs and trade barriers following last week’s agreement between U.S. President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, while U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth reached military cooperation agreements with China and Vietnam, while also preparing one with South Korea. In the Russia/Ukraine conflict, Ukrainian drone attacks forced Russia to suspend some oil refining and export operations, while intense fighting continued near Pokrovsk amid a Russian push to capture the city.
Weekly Forecast Monitor: Nov. 7, 2025
The Geopolitical Hotspots Monitor examines the outlook for key geopolitical hotspots around the world.
1 Russia/Ukraine Conflict
The Russia/Ukraine war trended toward military escalation as intense ground fighting continued in Russia’s drive to capture the Ukrainian city of Pokrovsk. As Ukraine continued its drone campaign targeting Russian energy infrastructure, a strike at the Black Sea port of Tuapse led to the suspension of fuel exports and the halt of operations at an associated oil refinery. Large-scale Russian airstrikes targeted energy and industrial infrastructure in Odesa. Poland and Romania have begun utilizing a U.S.-made counterdrone weapons system following a recent increase of Russian incursions into NATO/European airspace. Neither Trump nor Russian President Vladimir Putin plan to attend the Nov. 22-23 G20 summit in Johannesburg, scrubbing hopes that they could meet to advance peace efforts in Ukraine.
2 Middle East
The Middle East trended toward diplomatic de-escalation as the U.S. presented the U.N. Security Council and key partners with a draft resolution to advance implementation of the “Board of Peace,” Trump’s proposed international governing body for postwar Gaza. The U.S. is expected to establish a military presence at an air base in Damascus as a part of de-escalation efforts between Israel and Syria. Israel continued its intensified campaign of airstrikes against Hezbollah in Lebanon and threatened additional attacks in the near future. Meanwhile, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said negotiation with the U.S. was “not possible” so long as it continues to back Israel and maintain bases in the region.
3 U.S./China/Indo-Pacific
The Indo-Pacific trended toward diplomatic de-escalation this week, as China began easing tariffs and lifting trade restrictions following the summit last week between Trump and Xi. Hegseth signed a defense agreement with Vietnam and discussed the role of U.S. forces with South Korea while pledging to enhance military communication with China. Xi met with Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin to reaffirm their countries’ bilateral ties. Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi met with Taiwanese officials during last week’s APEC summit and expressed openness to cooperate with the U.S. on deep-sea mining projects for critical minerals expansion. The Philippines signed a new defense agreement with Canada, providing the legal framework for joint exercises and deployments.
4 Other Hotspots
United States
Democrat Zohran Mamdani was elected New York City mayor following a campaign focused on reducing housing prices, standing in favor of migration, and increasing taxes for high earners. Democratic candidates also won gubernatorial races in Virginia and New Jersey, indicating a level of voter dissatisfaction in the first major elections since Trump won the presidency in 2024. Forecast – political destabilization scenario
United States/Venezuela
Trump appeared to downplay the likelihood of a conflict with Venezuela, answering a question about possible U.S. military intervention there with, “I doubt it. I don’t think so. But they’ve been treating us very badly.” He did call for Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro to be removed. Forecast – military escalation scenario
United States/Nigeria
Trump threatened to cut off U.S. aid to Nigeria, accusing it of not doing enough to prevent violence against Christians living there. He also instructed the Pentagon to “prepare for possible action” in the country despite no evidence indicating increased levels of targeted violence there. Forecast – military escalation scenario
United States/Central Asia
Trump hosted the leaders of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan with the aim of securing new partnerships on critical minerals, trade, and energy to diversify and secure supply chains. Forecast – military escalation scenario
Sudan
More than 7,000 Sudanese civilians have been killed since the Rapid Support Forces’ (RSF) takeover of El-Fasher, the capital of North Darfur state, with over 70,000 residents leaving the city. Numerous experts and organizations have warned of further mass killings and human rights abuses occurring in the city. Forecast scenario – security destabilization scenario
5 Global Connectivity
The Global Connectivity Tracker examines the impact of geopolitical dynamics on key themes like trade, technology, and energy/climate.
European Union/Liquified Natural Gas
The European Union’s largest gas suppliers, ExxonMobil and QatarEnergy, threatened to stop supplying liquefied natural gas to the EU if it doesn’t loosen a sustainability law that could impose sanctions of up to 5% of their global revenue if they fail to address human rights and environmental impacts in their supply chains. The law also requires companies to develop and implement climate transition plans in accordance with the Paris Agreement, and not only in Europe.
Forecast – Energy Disruption Scenario: A cutoff of supply from those companies could lead to higher prices for Europe and tighten its volatile energy market, especially in the winter. ExxonMobil supplied 50% of EU LNG imports from the United States in 2024, while QatarEnergy contributed 12 to 14% of overall imports.
Europe/Electric Vehicles
Sales of Tesla electric vehicles declined in a number of European countries in October. New Tesla registrations decreased month-over-month in Sweden by 89%, in Denmark by 86%, in Norway by 50%, in the Netherlands by 48%, and in Spain by 31%. Tesla lost market share to BYD, Xpeng, and Zeekr.
Forecast – Trade Disruption Scenario: It is anticipated that Tesla will continue to lose market share in the European Union as the influence of Chinese EV brands grows and new European manufacturing plants in development come online, increasing competitive pressure on the company.
Pakistan/Italy/Qatar/Energy
Pakistan has agreed with Italian energy provider Eni to cancel 21 LNG cargoes, including 11 planned for 2026 and 10 for 2027, retaining only winter deliveries to meet peak demand. The move comes as weaker power and industrial consumption has driven excess gas inventories. Eni accepted the cancellations under contract flexibility. Pakistan is also discussing adjustments to its LNG arrangements with Qatar, including delaying or reselling cargoes. Long-term deals with Qatar and Eni total about 120 cargoes a year, but the current surplus has forced Pakistan to curb domestic production and explore storage or resale options.
Forecast – Energy Disruption Scenario: The decision will ease oversupply and reduce import costs in the short term, but it also increases exposure to winter spot-market volatility and potential supply gaps if demand rebounds.