This week, in the Middle East, Israel and Hamas agreed to implement the first phase of a U.S.-led ceasefire deal following its signing in Egypt, while U.S. President Donald Trump has announced he may travel to Israel in the coming days. In the Indo-Pacific, China expanded restrictions on rare earth exports and added sanctions against foreign defense companies, while North Korea celebrated the 80th anniversary of the founding of the ruling Workers’ Party of Korea. In the Russia/Ukraine conflict, both countries continued to attack each other’s energy infrastructure, while Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy reported successful ongoing operations in a counteroffensive in the Donetsk region. In the U.S., Trump called for Illinois Governor JB Pritzker to be imprisoned following the deployment of 500 National Guard troops to the state.
Weekly Forecast Monitor: Oct. 10, 2025
The Geopolitical Hotspots Monitor examines the outlook for key geopolitical hotspots around the world.
1 Russia/Ukraine Conflict
The Russia/Ukraine war trended toward hybrid escalation as Russia and Ukraine continued to wage intensified campaigns against each other’s energy infrastructure. Ukrainian Energy Minister Svitlana Hrynchuk said Ukraine plans to increase its natural gas imports by 30%, while rates of Russian imports of gasoline from Belarus increased 400% in September compared to August. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen said Russia’s incursions into EU/NATO airspace and acts of sabotage constituted “hybrid warfare” against Europe. Zelenskyy reported that Ukrainian forces were inflicting significant casualties against Russian forces in a counteroffensive in Donetsk. A senior Russian defense official said Russia would intercept any Tomahawk missiles the U.S. provides to Ukraine and respond “asymmetrically” against the U.S. for providing them. Meanwhile, Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov said momentum to achieve a peace deal in Ukraine has been “largely exhausted” and blamed the lack of progress on the “destructive actions” of Ukraine’s European partners.
2 Middle East
The Middle East trended toward diplomatic de-escalation as Israel and Hamas began to implement the first phase of Trump’s peace plan in Gaza, following indirect negotiations between Israel and Hamas in Egypt. The initial phase of the plan aims to establish a ceasefire, facilitate a hostage/prisoner exchange, and significantly increase humanitarian access to Gaza. According to the agreement, Israeli forces will initiate a three-phase withdrawal. Successful completion of the first phase will bring the Israel Defense Forces to an agreed-upon boundary in Gaza referred to as the “yellow line.” Israeli forces will continue to occupy territory inside Gaza until the completion of the third phase. Within 72 hours of the Israeli withdrawal to the yellow line, Hamas has agreed to release all living Israeli hostages along with the remains of deceased hostages, while Israel has agreed to release 250 Palestinians serving life sentences, along with 1,700 Palestinians imprisoned after the attacks on Oct. 7, 2023. White House officials have stated that the exchange is expected to occur Oct. 13, while Israeli officials have claimed the exchange may take place Oct. 11 or 12. The U.S. is expected to commit 200 troops to an international task force being assembled to monitor ceasefire implementation. Meanwhile, the Syrian government and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) reached a ceasefire agreement after a meeting between interim Syrian President Ahmed al-Shaara and SDF leader Mazloum Abdi.
3 U.S./China/Indo-Pacific
The Indo-Pacific trended toward hybrid escalation this week as China added five new rare earth elements to its export controls list and announced new sanctions against foreign companies. U.S. lawmakers called on tighter tech restrictions after an investigation revealed that China had continued to import chipmaking equipment from Japan and the Netherlands, despite existing restrictions. Taiwan warned that Chinese hybrid attacks against the island were on the rise, with Chinese civilian vessels testing Taiwan’s defenses through fake identification systems. Chinese Premier Li Qiang and Vietnamese leader To Lam were among the visitors to North Korea to take part in the 80th anniversary celebration of the founding of the ruling Workers’ Party of Korea.
4 Other Hotspots
United States
Trump called for Chicago Mayor Brandon Johnson and Illinois Governor JB Pritzker to be imprisoned following the deployment of 500 National Guard soldiers to the state to support personnel from U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement. Forecast – security destabilization scenario
United States/Afghanistan
Leaders from the Taliban, along with representatives from 10 other countries including India, Pakistan, and China, met in Moscow, where they stated their opposition to Trump’s stated goal to reclaim possession of Bagram Airbase near Kabul. Forecast – hybrid escalation scenario
France
Newly appointed Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu resigned after 14 hours in government, claiming that representatives from opposing parties and business had failed to reach a consensus on the upcoming budget. Forecast – political destabilization scenario
5 Global Connectivity
The Global Connectivity Tracker examines the impact of geopolitical dynamics on key themes like trade, technology, and energy/climate.
Russia/Oil
Moscow is gradually increasing crude output to align with its OPEC+ production cap of around 9.4 million barrels per day, according to the Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak. Russia’s August production stood at roughly 9.17 million bpd, slightly below its 9.26 million bpd target, while September volumes were close to the new ceiling of 9.42 million bpd. The production recovery comes despite repeated Ukrainian drone strikes that have damaged several refineries and export terminals. At least 10 refineries have been hit in recent months, with some forced to suspend operations temporarily.
Forecast – Energy Enhancement Scenario: If Ukrainian drone activity continues to disrupt refining and export infrastructure, Russia could struggle to sustain output near OPEC+ levels, increasing pressure on domestic fuel supplies and energy revenues.
Russia/Ukraine/Energy Infrastructure
Russia attacked civil and energy infrastructure in many regions of Ukraine using drones and missiles, according to Ukrainian officials. Attacks on eastern Kharkiv and central Ukraine’s Poltava Region, home to significant natural gas production facilities, killed five and left thousands without power.
Forecast – Energy Disruption Scenario: Russia’s missile and drone attacks have destroyed Ukraine’s electricity infrastructure, causing blackouts and disruptions of gas infrastructure as winter approaches.
Japan/Nuclear/Renewables
As nuclear power generation increases, Japan’s renewable energy curtailment is expected to reach a record high in 2025. Japan’s electricity dispatch rules prioritize nuclear power, so operators must cut wind and solar output to meet nuclear base-load generation. Following the disaster at Fukushima, Japan has reactivated 14 of its 33 commercial nuclear reactors. The reduction of solar and wind electricity generation reached 2.3% this year.
Forecast – Energy Disruption Scenario: Japanese regulations favor the dispatch of nuclear and fossil-fuel generation over renewables on its power grid. Without regulatory overhaul, investment in Japan’s renewable energy sector could decline, affecting its expansion.